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Showing posts with label Crisis of Unionism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crisis of Unionism. Show all posts
Dr John Coulter ✍  Reeling the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party towards an Ulster Unionist position on co-operation will be one of the toughest tasks facing UUP leader in waiting Jon Burrows after his coronation in a Belfast hotel later this week.

The scale of the challenge should not be underestimated with many in grassroots Unionism craving the supposed Holy Grail of Unionist Unity given the number of seats the pro-Union family has lost over the decades to infighting, personality clashes, failing to transfer, and voter apathy.

The phrase “reel the TUV in towards our UUP orbit” was made by Burrows during a ‘meet the public’ event in Limavady last week organised by the East Londonderry UUP Association.

If ever North Antrim MLA Burrows needed a reminder of the scale of the challenge facing the UUP as a party, it was here in the centre of the East Londonderry constituency.

The constituency, formed in 1983, once boasted for the UUP a Westminster MP, two Stormont Assembly members and a solid representation at local government level. It’s a very different picture in 2026 for the UUP: no MP, no MLAs, a handful of councillors and the Westminster seat itself now a marginal between the DUP and Sinn Fein.

As things stand, the constituency has three unionist MLAs - two DUP and Independent Claire Sugden. Potentially, there are three pro-Union quotas in East Londonderry, so could Unionist co-operation return one DUP, one UUP and one TUV, or is that just wishful thinking?

Whilst many people and pundits are trying to put political labels on a Burrows UUP leadership - will it be liberal or traditional - the former top cop maintains that “politics needs to be reset” and Northern Ireland “needs a Stormont that is more efficient”.

Just as a former Northern Ireland Prime Minister Terence O’Neill once said the province was at a crossroads, Burrows has introduced his own political vocabulary - that Northern Ireland “is at a fork in the road” and only the UUP can give that direction.

But now the reality check. The UUP is behind both the DUP and TUV in some opinion polls. With the latest buzz phrase ‘Unionist co-operation’, is it possible a pan unionist front could be created in time for the crucial local government and Assembly elections in May 2027?

Whilst there is a desire for Unionist co-operation and vote transferring among the pro-Union parties at grassroots level, Burrows faces two massive political migraines in trying to make this a reality.

Firstly, can the DUP be trusted to deliver on its side of the bargain as many in the UUP still recall the verbal onslaughts on the party during the Paisleyite era. Secondly, both the DUP and UUP are pro-Stormont in terms of wanting to make devolution work, whilst the TUV strategy is perceived to be wanting to collapse Stormont and have Direct Rule from Westminster restored.

Burrows quite openly says he wants to build a “strong, sensible and strategic Unionism”, but how can he build Unionist co-operation if one of the three players - the TUV - is pulling tactically in the opposite direction of the other two?

Apart from the perception that the TUV wants to collapse Stormont completely, the fear among the pro-Union community is that if the Assembly falls again, it will not be replaced by 1970s-style Direct Rule, but by Joint Authority between the Dail and Westminster.

The other perception is that the TUV is not transfer-friendly in terms of voting strength. In a previous Stormont election, the TUV polled some 66,000 first preference votes across the province, but had only one MLA in North Antrim to show for this.

Using his own soundbite, which “fork in the road” does Burrows take with the TUV given the latter’s steady increase in support in the opinion polls? Does he move the UUP to a hardline Right-wing position, ignore the TUV and pray that Unionist voters opt for just the DUP and UUP, or the radical plan of persuading - or ‘reeling’ - the TUV “towards our UUP orbit”?

Put bluntly, how does Burrows - and the UUP to be honest - bring the TUV ‘in from the cold’ and make it one of the main coalition partners in a new look co-operative Unionism capable not just of winning seats, but persuading both apathetic and first-time voters of turning out on polling day and actually voting for the UUP especially and the other pro-Union parties and candidates?

Whilst it was only a snap shot of political gossip, the mood of that meeting in East Londonderry was that there are supposedly rumblings within the TUV that it reportedly really don’t want to bring down Stormont.

But for Burrows, the key strategy is the need to sell Northern Ireland to the voters: 

We’re world leaders in so many sectors, but we’re not telling the story enough, especially that the Union is the best thing for national security.

Burrows didn’t use terms such as ‘liberal’ or ‘moderate’ to attract centre ground voters back to the UUP. He seemed to prefer the term ‘Passionate Unionism’.

Perhaps what Burrows needs to do is copy Sinn Fein’s rise to prominence from the Sixties when it was nothing more than a social club to remember the failed 1916 Easter Rising, through to the virtually daily mouth piece of the Provisional IRA, to now the leading nationalist party in Northern Ireland at all levels of government.

Sinn Fein is a ruthless political movement; a seat is not the person’s; it belongs to the party. Sinn Fein believes in the long game and has some cunning strategists.

Whilst they may be polished in their appearances at Stormont and the media, the party lacks ‘big ideological thinkers’ especially among its MLA team. But it does boast a relentless organisation especially in communication. It is drilled in its hunger for Irish Unity.

Burrows needs to inspire that same hunger and desire among pro-Union voters for the Union. He wants the UUP specifically to be a party of practical support, not wokeism.

But before he sells his vision to the other parties, especially “reeling in the TUV”, he needs to convince his own party of that vision at his political coronation on Saturday.

Two other soundbites were noted at that East Londonderry meeting which will be of vital importance in the coming days, weeks, and months - “disunity will kill us” and “you must be loyal to your party and your colleagues”.

But my favourite soundbite of the evening summarises Burrows’ vision: “The UUP should be proud of our ambassadorship for Northern Ireland and we should be the evangelists for the Union.”

If Burrows can convince the pro-Union electorate of that ethos, the UUP is back in business at the polls.
 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Bringing TUV In From The Cold Will Be Burrows’ Greatest Challenge!

Dr John Coulter ✍ With elected Lagan Valley MLA Robbie Butler deciding not to contest the Ulster Unionist Party leadership against co-opted North Antrim MLA and ex-top cop Jon Burrows, questions are now being raised about the future direction of so-called moderate or liberal Unionism.

With the Burrows leadership coronation set for Saturday 31st January in a Belfast hotel, the strong perception is that the once supposedly middle of the road pro-Union UUP is set to shift to the right-wing and develop a much closer co-operation with both the DUP and TUV in time for the May 2027 Assembly and council elections.

Butler, a born again Christian, a former deacon in an Elim Pentecostal Church and a veteran of both the Prison Service and Fire Service, was somehow viewed as being from the liberal wing of the party conceived politically by the late David Trimble, one of the key UUP architects of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

Currently the UUP’s deputy leader, Butler was seen as a continuation of a team of radical moderate leaders, such as outgoing leader Mike Nesbitt, Steve Aiken of South Antrim, and South Antrim MP Robin Swann.

Butler and Co had recognised the significance of the electoral threat posed to the UUP by the rise of the Alliance Party, especially under the latter’s leadership of Naomi Long, the former East Belfast MP, and particularly when Long took the UUP’s European seat in 2019 in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum - a seat the UUP had held since 1979.

The perception is that the Burrows camp wants to expose Alliance 2026 for what it really is ideologically - a soft r republican party and a key component politically of the pan nationalist front along with Sinn Fein and the SDLP.

That perception is that Alliance is no longer the soft u Unionist party it was under the leadership of Presbyterian minister’s son Lord John Alderdice. The Burrows camp is taking the view that many in the moderate pro-Union community voted for Alliance because they mistakenly saw Alliance as a genuine middle of the road, centrist, liberal movement.

The Burrows strategy would be to build closer ties with other Unionist parties to conceive the ideological alternative to the pan nationalist front - namely a pan unionist front.

This could inevitably lead to a realignment within the pro-Union community party-wise into two movements - a socially conservative, right-wing organisation comprising the right-wing of the UUP, the DUP and TUV, and a liberal Unionist movement comprising pro-Union folk who had once voted Alliance plus the liberals within the existing UUP.

The right-wing shift in the current UUP grassroots is further emphasised by the inevitability that Butler will be replaced as deputy leader by co-opted Fermanagh and South Tyrone MLA Diana Armstrong, the daughter of former UUP leader and Fermanagh and South Tyrone Westminster MP the late Harry West.

In terms of membership, the border regions of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which suffered terribly during the Troubles, boasts a handsome UUP contingent.

Indeed, anyone wanting to win the UUP leadership via a contest would more than likely need the vast bulk of the Fermanagh and South Tyrone membership to be assured of victory.

Such was the late Harry West’s influence in the UUP that a pressure group, known as the West Ulster Unionist Council, held as much political clout within the party as the right-wing pressure group, the Ulster Monday Club.

The so-called Burrows/Armstrong ‘dream team’ is the UUP grassroots’ high stakes gamble to revive the party’s electoral fortunes come May 2027.

But what about the tens of thousands of moderate Unionists who defected electorally to Alliance? How can they be won back into the UUP camp, especially among new first time voters and young people? And what about the tens of thousands of apathetic potential pro-Union voters who have abandoned the ballot box completely? How can they be energised to vote UUP?

Liberal moderate Unionism does not have an impressive track record electorally. In the Seventies, the pro-Assembly Unionists spearheaded by the late former Northern Ireland Prime Minister Brian Faulkner were consistently trounced at the ballot box by the combined strength of the UUP, DUP and Vanguard under the banner of the Unionist Coalition.

Faulkner then launched his own middle of the road party, the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (UPNI), which was making slow but steady inroads into the centrist pro-Union voter base until Faulkner’s tragic and untimely death in 1977 in a horse riding incident.

While the current UUP is to the fore in promoting Diana Armstrong as a female deputy leader, it should not be forgotten that Mrs Anne Dickson replaced Faulkner as UPNI leader after his death.

Put bluntly, after the Burrows coronation later this month, could liberal Unionists like Butler and his ilk see the increasingly right-wing leaning direction of the UUP as too bitter a political pill to swallow and leave to form a new moderate pro-Union movement in any Unionist realignment?

The same could also be said of the Alliance Party between those who are middle of the road ideologically, but pro-Union constitutionally, and those in Alliance who are left-wing ideologically and would favour Irish Unity. If the former faction defected or split from Alliance and joined with the liberal UUP faction, could a rebirth of the UPNI be on the cards?

Skeptics may point to the fate of another liberal pro-Union experiment which crashed and burned electorally before it had even left the runway - the short-lived NI21 party formed by two former liberal UUP MLAs, Basil McCrea of Lagan Valley and John McCallister of South Down.

One criticism that was made of the late Lord Trimble in that whilst he was a tremendous political visionary in Unionism, he moved too far forward tactically without bringing Unionism’s grassroots with him. In the end, it was his undoing in the Upper Bann constituency as Westminster MP.

Since announcing his nomination for the UUP leadership, Burrows has been outlining his vision for Unionism. His challenge will be not to make the same mistake as Trimble. Burrows will need to carry the pro-Union grassroots with him as he develops his vision of Unionist co-operation.

But in doing so, he will have to bring middle of the road Unionists with him otherwise the UUP will see large scale voting, not for Alliance, but for a new look UPNI. However, the electoral clock is ticking. May 2027 will soon come around.
 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Ghost Of UPNI Could Haunt Burrows’ Coronation

Dr John Coulter ✍ Whether or not the Ulster Unionist Party holds a leadership contest or coronation at the end of the month, the central issue remains - in what direction is Unionism going?

Whoever becomes leader and deputy leader at the Emergency General Meeting in late January in a Belfast hotel, their primary vision must be to establish Co-operative Unionism in time for the May 2027 Stormont and council elections.

No matter if the new UUP leadership decides on a liberal or traditional ideology for the party, a strategy on the number of candidates and transfers between parties must be the primary concern in its ‘in box’.

Vote splitting, non-transferring and voter apathy in traditionally pro-Union constituencies have seen seats lost to the pan nationalist front of Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Alliance.

If brutal examples were needed, Unionism only needs to examine the results of the last Westminster poll in Lagan Valley, a supposedly rock solid pro-Union seat since its creation in 1983. Because of a three-way split between the DUP, UUP and TUV in the General Election, the seat fell to Alliance.

During the last Stormont showdown, because of poor transferring among pro-Union parties, veteran DUP MLA Mervyn Storey lost out to Alliance in North Antrim.

Indeed, in many normally pro-Union District Electoral Areas (DEAs) across Northern Ireland, voter turnout is starting to dip well below 60 per cent as an increasing number of ‘stay at home’ Unionists lose faith in the ballot box.

Gone are the days when Unionist MPs could boast of a 30,000 plus vote majority in General Elections. Put bluntly, Unionism has allowed the pan nationalist front a free gift at the ballot box. In recent years, too, many in the pro-Union community have been voting Alliance as a protest against the mixed-messaging among the Unionist parties.

However, a clear message must be sent out to moderate Unionism from the UUP’s EGM on 31st January - Alliance is no longer the soft-u Unionist party it was under Oliver Napier, David Cook or John Alderdice.

Alliance 2026 is an integral part of the pan nationalist front and has now become a soft-r republican party, occupying the electoral ground once held by the now defunct Irish Independence Party of the Seventies, which was once fronted by Protestant ex-British Army officer John Turnley before his murder by the UDA in 1980.

If Unionism as an ideology is to regain the upper hand electorally at Assembly, local government and Westminster levels, all the pro-Union parties will have to work together publicly so that Unionist voters can see that co-operation is a practical reality, and not empty rhetoric.

The blame game as to who split Unionism will have to be laid to rest. The bitterness of not voting for other pro-Union parties will have to be set aside and Unionists will have to vote all the way down the ballot paper for every pro-Union candidate on the ticket.

Likewise, the various pro-Union parties will have to realistically analyse how many candidates can be elected according to the pro-Union quotas available, and equally importantly, which pro-Union parties are best placed to either take or hold seats in the Assembly and council in May 2027.

It has been done in the past. For example, in February 1974, operating under the banner of the United Ulster Unionist Council, known as the Treble UC or Unionist Coalition, pro-Union parties scooped up 11 of the 12 Westminster General Election seats.

At that time, the Treble UC represented three main Unionist parties - DUP, UUP and Vanguard. Voter turnout in many constituencies was well over 60 per cent, and over 70 per cent in some seats.

The new UUP leadership will have to create an ethos of Co-operative Unionism, whereby agreed party candidates will have to be stood to ensure increased voter confidence among the pro-Union electorate, and especially the winning of seats at all levels.

Unionism will have to again find the Treble UC Spirit of ’74 strategically if it is to avoid continuing to play second fiddle electorally to the pan nationalist front.

And especially at Northern Ireland Assembly level, Unionism will have to undo the disaster of 20 years ago and the St Andrews Agreement when the top post of First Minister was changed from the largest designation (as under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement) to the largest party.

The mentality of putting party before Province must be confined to the dustbin of history. Unionism must use this year to lobby the British Government to restore ‘largest designation’ to the Stormont First Minister’s role.

The mouthpiece of the Provisional IRA, its political wing Sinn Fein, holds the First Minister’s post as under the St Andrews Agreement, the republican movement is the largest party at Stormont. Indeed, Sinn Fein has eaten so much electorally into the moderate Catholic vote that it has also eclipsed the SDLP as the largest party at council level.

Unionism cannot afford a knee jerk reaction to Sinn Fein being the top dog at the Assembly by calling for Stormont to be scrapped. If devolution falls once more, it will not be replaced by Direct Rule from Westminster, but by Joint Authority between the Dail and the House of Commons.

By 1st February, the UUP will have a new leadership in place. Whatever fancy label they wish to place on their ideology is irrelevant. It will have to be a policy of Co-operative Unionism among all the pro-Union parties that will decide the future direction of Unionism, and ultimately the future role of the UUP.

 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Pathways And Policies, Not Personalities, Will Revive UUP

Tommy McKearney ☭ With the traditional Orange marching season now ended, it is timely to review certain events in the North.

1-September-2025

Unlike times past when assessing summer in the six counties, this year attention has turned towards differences within sections of the pro-union community rather than confrontations with their neighbours.

To be precise, we are referring to a contest between the DUP and the TUV for primacy. And while those outside that particular political arena may be tempted to smile at the prospect of unionist upheaval, it would be a mistake to become complacent and treat it as amusement.

As mentioned above, the struggle for the leadership of right-wing unionism is heating up. With the last Stormont election leaving the late Ian Paisley’s party in second place behind Sinn Féin, concern grew within the DUP that they had lost a crucial number of votes to their rivals in the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Concern has recently turned to panic as the latest quarterly LucidTalk opinion poll published by the Belfast Telegraph shows a consistent narrowing in support between the two.

It is necessary to exercise caution when referring to opinion polls. This is particularly important when applied to Northern Irish politics. Often a view expressed to a pollster may not indicate how the respondent will eventually vote. That caveat notwithstanding, the latest poll scoring the DUP at 17% and the TUV at 13% reaffirms a consistent trend. Jim Allister’s TUV is not only narrowing the ground between it and the DUP but has been doing so over a sustained period.

In other words, this result is not a ‘flash in the pan’. The DUP’s leaders are very aware of this. The party’s Stormont Education Minister Paul Givan was recently quoted by the Belfast Telegraph warning DUP voters against considering switching to TUV.

Determined not to allow his rivals to regain momentum, the TUV leader recently availed himself of an opportunity to maintain his advantage. Stormont Deputy First Minister, the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly, was cajoled into endorsing a plan to have the local NHS provide care for a tiny number (two at most) of seriously injured children from Gaza. Realising that there was unease within the DUP over the offer, Jim Allister introduced a sour note. While agreeing to participate in a UK-wide scheme, he said he did not want those coming here to “acquire residency rights”, thereby creating difficulty down the line for the DUP.

In the face of this challenge, the DUP reacted quickly. Firmly ensconced on the reactionary end of the political spectrum since its foundation, the party’s elected representatives acted in keeping with its long-established ethos.

Seizing opportunistically on events in England, where the High Court granted an injunction to a district council giving it the right to refuse migrants access to a local hotel, the DUP took their lead from the English. Ignoring the fact that only three hotels in the six counties house a mere 288 asylum seekers, the Democratic Unionists instigated legal actions demanding that three local government authorities remove the migrant residents from the hotel accommodation.

Not only is this distasteful, but in light of very recent racially motivated rioting in some of the council districts named by the DUP, it is surely irresponsible behaviour at best if not actually dangerous. Undoubtedly, such a move by elected members of the Assembly will give a spurious ‘legitimacy’ to the hate-filled message spewing from local fascists. Keep in mind too that this latter grouping—i.e., fascists—is now island-wide.

Unfortunately, these clear threats to society in general have not met with any credible response from other political parties in the Assembly. Hand-wringing and tut-tutting of course, but positive action… none. And this goes to the heart of the fundamental failure that is Northern Ireland; there is no Plan B being advocated by those elected.

Fear of once again bringing down the devolved administration and thereby ending their cosy arrangements ensures that no decisive steps will be taken to address important issues. Not even a demand for a review of the stultifying aspects of the Good Friday Agreement. Consequently, with reactionaries determining the agenda, even issues that should be non-contentious, such as green algae contaminating Lough Neagh, remain unaddressed.

Sinn Féin and the SDLP say they favour ending the failed six-county political entity through Irish reunification. Yet that still raises two questions. What happens in the meantime, and what kind of Ireland will there be post-reunification if reactionaries in the north are not engaged with beforehand?

There are answers to these questions, but they are not to be found in the sclerotic northern Assembly. The solution lies in the implementation of a socialist programme across the entire island, and the sooner the better for everybody.

Tommy McKearney is a left wing and trade union activist. 
Follow on Twitter @Tommymckearney

Unionism Continues To Flounder

Dr John Coulter ✍ Now that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has firmly established itself as a potential Government in waiting following the local elections in England, Unionism will have to tread very carefully politically if it is to take advantage of the so-called ‘Farage Factor.’

Last Thursday, millions of voters in England went to the polls in the first electoral test since Labour’s Westminster landslide victory last year.

With over 1,600 council seats as well as four regional and two local mayors decided and a new MP for the English Commons constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, the Right-wing Reform UK bandwagon is on a roll.

If Thursday’s results were replicated in the next Westminster General Election - expected in 2029 - Nigel Farage could well be handed the keys of 10 Downing Street.

The key question which the pro-Union community in Northern Ireland must now address is, could Reform UK guarantee the Union where the Tories in the past have politically stabbed Unionism in the back?

Okay, so the Right-wing Traditional Unionist Voice party fronted by North Antrim MP Jim Allister had some kind of political ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ with Reform UK in the days before Nigel Farage took charge of the latter.

Likewise, given the current existence of the Irish Sea Border, the Protocol and the Windsor Framework, could any Unionist party in Northern Ireland ever trust another Tory Party again?

Has the pro-Union community not learned from history about climbing into bed politically with the Tories. Was it not Tory PM Ted Heath who prorogued the original Unionist-dominated Stormont Parliament in 1972?

Was it not the so-called Iron Lady of Right-wing Conservatism, Maggie Thatcher, who as Prime Minister in 1985 signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement with Southern Ireland giving Dublin its first major say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition in the 1920s?

What about Tory PM John Major’s Downing Street Declaration which laid the foundation stones for the disbanding of the then RUC and its replacement with the now cash-strapped PSNI?

Another former PM, Boris Johnson, was lauded by the DUP as a political hero. That did not end well for Unionism over Brexit. Then there was the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement between the DUP and the Tories at Westminster to keep the Conservatives in power. Yet another political disaster!

Put bluntly, as for Unionism’s political relationships with Tory PMs Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, the phrase ‘Unionism’s demise’ comes startlingly to mind!

Unionism is already fragmented politically and Commons seats, such as the once rock solid Unionist Lagan Valley, were lost to the pan nationalist front because there were too many Unionist parties in the frame.

What happens, if on the back of the ‘Farage Factor’, leader Nigel decides to abandon his party’s so-called ‘Memorandum’ with the TUV and begins to organise in Northern Ireland in the same way the Tories did in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Whilst numerous Conservative associations across Northern Ireland were formally recognised by Tory HQ, it did not result in a single Conservative MP being returned from the Province. The closest the Tories came was within a few thousand votes of unseating the late Sir James Kilfedder in North Down who was then leader of the fringe Ulster Popular Unionist Party.

But apart from a few councillors dotted across Northern Ireland, the electoral impact of the Tories has been next to nil, so what would make Reform UK think it can do any better than the Tories?

Instead, Reform UK should brand itself as a Right-wing pressure group in Northern Ireland, operating in the same way as the Ulster Vanguard movement in the 1970s before it made the mistake of launching itself as a separate political party.

Like it or not, there will need to be a realignment within the pro-Union community and a clear working relationship will have to be established between the three main Unionist parties - the DUP, UUP and TUV - otherwise more Assembly seats could be lost to the pan nationalist front come the next Stormont poll expected in 2027.

There has been much talk of voter apathy among the pro-Union community and it could become a generational factor with sons and daughters opting to follow their parents’ examples by ignoring the ballot box on polling days.

It has even been suggested by some Unionist activists that up to 48 per cent of the pro-Union community is not coming out to vote. Could Reform UK, operating as a pressure group, convince large sections of the pro-Union community to re-engage with the electoral process?

What is certainly not needed by the pro-Union community is for Reform UK to use the ‘Farage Factor’ to launch itself as a separate political party in Northern Ireland, further fragmenting the Unionist vote.

Without doubt, Farage has shown that he is a vote winner. He proved it with the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) and the Brexit Party in past European elections.

In the last Westminster General Election, albeit with a handful of MPs, he did make the Reform UK’s Commons breakthrough. Farage is a close ally of US President Donald Trump, so could we see a political back channel of warming of UK-US relations similar to the Thatcher-Ronald Reagan relationship of the 1980s?

Farage has visited Northern Ireland on a few occasions during his Ukip days and he certainly created a massive political buzz on each trip.

The key question which Right-wing pro-Union political activists must address following last Thursday’s results in England is - could Farage be the man to knock Unionist heads together in Northern Ireland finally convincing them they need to form a genuine working relationship against the pan nationalist front?

Irish politics has often been dubbed the art of the impossible. Could we even see Farage addressing demonstrations of the Loyal Orders in the future? Stranger things have happened in the weird world of Ulster politics!

Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Could Reform UK Succeed In Ulster Where Tories Have Failed?

Dr John Coulter ✍ If true Unionist unity is to become a practical reality and not the topic of discussion among pro-Union academics, then there needs to be a reforming of the grassroots Vanguard movement from the Seventies.

Put bluntly, workable Unionist unity must be built from the grassroots up, not the dictates of the various Unionist party leaders down.

Indeed, linked to the success of such a modern day Vanguard movement will also be the future of Right-wing Unionism in Northern Ireland. This is an issue I’ve written about in the past.

The future success of the Right-wing Unionism to which I have always aspired is intrinsically linked with the ability of ordinary grassroots Protestants, Unionists and Loyalists to mobilise and bond themselves together in a pro-active movement which the Unionist political leadership will heed.

Just as the electoral success of Sinn Fein, the Provisional IRA’s political wing, at Westminster, Assembly and council levels in Northern Ireland has prompted talk of a mythical border poll, the reaction to this among a section of Unionist thinking is that the only way the Union can be saved is to chase after the so-called ‘middle ground’ in politics.

We now have a brand of Unionist politician pushing a woke liberal agenda under the branding of being ‘progressive’, ‘inclusive’ and other fancy Alliance-type rhetoric.

Such politicians fail to recognise that woke liberal Unionist movements have all crashed and burned in the past at the ballot box. The dustbin of history in Northern Ireland is littered with failed attempts at ‘progressive’ woke liberalism.

Before the original Stormont Parliament was prorogued in 1972, woke liberalism rallied to the banner of the Northern Ireland Labour Party. It crashed.

In the early Seventies, woke liberalism again reared its head under the guise of the Pro-Assembly Unionists during the dying days of the power-sharing Sunningdale Executive. That breed of Unionism was effectively electorally wiped out in the two Westminster General Elections of 1974 by various Unionist parties under the joint banner of the United Ulster Unionist Council, also known as the Unionist Coalition, or affectionately known as the ‘Treble UC’.

Next to push the woke liberal agenda was former Northern Ireland Prime Minister Brian Faulkner with his Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. Following his tragic death in the late Seventies, the UPNI was led by Anne Dickson until the party’s eventual demise in the early Eighties.

Other woke liberal disasters within Unionism have included the NI21 party project launched by former UUP MLAs Basil McCrea and John McCallister; the UUP’s ‘Vote Mike, Get Colum’ strategy under the leadership of Mike Nesbitt Mark One, and the UCUNF campaign involving the UUP and Tory Party.

You’ll probably find all these movements filled under the abbreviation ‘WD’ for Woke Disasters.

Unionists of my vintage may point to the fact that the Vanguard Unionist Party is also in the dustbin of history, so has that tactic not been tried before?

Vanguard as a grassroots pressure group was a roaring success at mobilising the pro-Union community. It failed because it decided to become yet another Unionist party, thereby further fragmenting the Unionist vote.

The days after the signing of the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement, which gave Dublin its first major say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition in the 1920s, saw the emergence of the grassroots Ulster Clubs movement, once fronted by then senior Portadown Orange Chaplain Alan Wright.

It was planned to be a carbon copy of the Unionist Clubs which were established in the early 20th century to mobilise grassroots Unionist opposition to Home Rule.

However, the presence of senior UDA figures at Ulster Clubs meetings turned many middle class Unionist grassroots folk away from the movement with the effective death knell in terms of political influence for the Ulster Clubs coming after the March 1986 Day of Action, which descended into violence against the security forces.

Unionism in 2025 faces a crisis of mobilisation and confidence in the ballot box. Many traditional pro-Union District Electoral Areas (DEAs) are recording voter turnouts of between 40 and 50 per cent.

How many Unionists are on the electoral roll, but have failed to turn out to vote? How many folk in the pro-Union community have not even bothered to get themselves registered to vote in the first place? How much traditional bitterness still remains between the UUP, DUP, TUV, PUP and Independent Unionists who will not transfer to each other down the ballot paper?

If Unionist unity is to become an electoral reality, then the new Vanguard grassroots movement will have to not only address these three key questions, but will have to implement workable solutions.

The pro-Union community needs to swallow the bitter electoral medicine that Unionist seats are being lost because of voter apathy and pig-headedness in not transferring to other pro-Union candidates after giving their initial preferences to their specific Unionist party of choice.

Likewise, traditionally safe Unionist seats, such as Lagan Valley, have been lost at Westminster level because of multiple parties entering the fray and severely fragmenting the vote.

Unionism needs its Right-wing to relaunch the Vanguard movement, whereby the pro-Union grassroots can meet as groups and air their views, fears, anxieties and grievances.

This must be a cross-generational movement and not limited to pensioners who want to talk about the ‘Gud Auld Dayes’ when Unionist MPs enjoyed Commons majorities in the tens of thousands.

But more importantly, they need to ensure the mass registration of pro-Union voters and instil a discipline that come the next elections in just over two years’ time, Unionism sees a maximum turnout and mature transferring on ballot papers.

Then, and only then when the grassroots flex their muscles will the leaderships of the various Unionist parties be forced into electoral unity and the woke liberal agenda defeated once and for all. 
 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Unionism Needs A New Grassroots Vanguard Movement To Promote Party Unity

Dr John Coulter ✍ There’s only one way the Ulster Unionist Party will survive long-term following the anointing on Saturday of Nesbitt Mark Two as leader - swing ideologically to the Right-wing and aim to create a Unionist Coalition with other Unionist and loyalist parties and groups.

Earlier this month, I celebrated my 65th birthday. On 1st September 1977 on my 18th birthday, I became the third generation of my family to join the UUP when I signed up to the North Antrim Young Unionist Association.

I have been a card-carrying member of the party ever since through thick and thin politically.

My late dad, Rev Dr Robert Coulter MBE, was a former North Antrim UUP MLA from 1998 to 2011 when he was succeeded by Robin Swann, the current South Antrim Westminster MP. My dad also served as Party Chief Whip from 1996-98 in the Assembly’s forerunner, the Northern Ireland Forum for Political Dialogue.

He also served as a councillor and alderman on the old Ballymena Borough Council and was Mayor of Ballymena from 1993-96. Put bluntly, given my family background, Ulster Unionism has been a major part of my political DNA so I feel that gives me a credible position to express my view on where the UUP should now travel.

The UUP now needs to return to its traditional Right-wing roots and abandon the electorally disastrous liberal woke agenda it has been sucking up to for years. The UUP needs to reconnect with apathetic Unionism and loyalism which have lost confidence in the ballot box.

To do so, it will have to reform the old United Ulster Unionist Council, or Unionist Coalition, affectionately known as the Treble UC, which existed in the early 1970s and represented three Unionist parties - the UUP, DUP, and Vanguard Unionist Party. In the February 1974 Westminster General Election, the UUUC showed its electoral muscle by winning 11 of the 12 Commons seats, and coming within just over 2,000 votes of unseating SDLP boss Gerry Fitt in his West Belfast bolthole.

Instead of chasing after the Alliance vote or the mythical so-called middle ground like some lost whining puppy, the UUP needs to reconnect with the pro-Union community which no longer sees the value in voting.

Likewise, it must swallow some bitter political medicine and set aside petty squabbles and form a new UUUC with the DUP, TUV and other Unionist and loyalist groups and organisations, such as the Loyal Orders and the marching band fraternity. Unionist unity must no longer become a convenient sound bite - it must become a practical reality otherwise Unionist parties, and especially the UUP, will continue to lose votes and seats to the pan nationalist front of Sinn Fein, the SDLP and Alliance.

Voters, who in a border poll, would vote pro-Union, now vote Alliance because it is a convenient liberal woke party of protest. Alliance is now a soft ‘R’ republican party; it is no longer the soft ‘U’ Unionist party it once was under the leadership of my schoolboy chum from Ballymena Academy days and fellow Presbyterian minister’s son, John Alderdice.

As a life-long Ulster Unionist, it dismays me when I see pundits and people wanting to write the electoral epitaph of the UUP with daft suggestions on social media that the UUP should be disbanded, jump into bed politically with the SDLP, or move even ideologically closer to Alliance.

What has triggered the electoral damage to the UUP has not been party organisation, but ideological direction. While the late David Trimble was a visionary, he moved the party too fast through the peace process.

He knew where he wanted the UUP and Northern Ireland to go in a post Good Friday Agreement era, but he tactically failed to bring the UUP grassroots with him.

This was later to be followed by the equally electorally disastrous policy of ‘Vote Mike, Get Colum!’ This was misinterpreted as a plea for the Unionist grassroots to transfer to a republican party rather than to other pro-Union candidates.

Another disaster was the formal link with the Tory Party under the ‘New Force’ banner which saw many pro-Union voters from the Christian church and socially conservative community walk away from the party because of the then Tory party’s liberal woke agenda.

The UUP needs to learn from its opponents in Sinn Fein. Look how the republican movement has been able to successfully eat into the electorally lucrative Catholic middle class - the bastion of the SDLP - without losing support in its traditional working class hardline republican heartlands.

Put bluntly, Sinn Fein brings its grassroots with it as it moves forward. The UUP needs to follow a similar strategy in the pro-Union community. The Right-wing has been making gains in elections in Great Britain and across Europe. For the UUP, the liberal woke bandwagon has lost its wheels and it is stuck in the mud politically.

Since 1994, I have pushed the Right-wing ideology of Revolutionary Unionism, which can be summarised as one party, one faith, one Commonwealth.

Practically, this means pro-Union parties working together as a cohesive unit to unite behind the best party candidate capable of winning the seat and ensuring that Unionist voters from all parties transfer to other pro-Union parties.

In spite of the spin from the secular society, the church vote is still an important community within Northern Ireland. The UUP needs to reach other more practically to that community.

Brexit is now a reality, so the Commonwealth and especially the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, which represents some 50 plus national and regional parliaments across the globe, must become the major new economic community for Unionism.

This is the practical way forward, but what about Right-wing policies which the UUP should now adopt and become the bedrock of a new UUUC for all pro-Union parties to sign up to?

It must be a policy of putting people first; practically, putting pupils first, putting patients first, putting pensioners first, and putting the police first.

If you are to be a citizen of Northern Ireland, you must make a contribution to society. The days of Ulster being a ‘benefits bonanza’ must end.

The UUP must restore pride in the ballot box and campaign for Australian-style compulsory voting.

Prison time should be a deterrent for any wanna-be criminal, not a holiday camp. Convicted prisoners should be part of chain gangs to assist with the cleaning of our roads so that the pothole plague is eradicated.

There must be an iron fist approach to drug dealing with all assets seized and ploughed into NHS services for the rehabilitation of addicts.

National Service will be introduced for all citizens lasting a minimum of two years during which everyone will also be taught a trade.

Cross-border agreements with the Dail will be reached so that folk can complete their National Service with the army, navy, air force, or emergency services on either side of the border.

Capital punishment must be restored for criminals convicted by the courts of child murder, drug barons who pollute our communities with their illegal drugs, and the most serious cases of first degree murder.

This is merely a starting point for the Right-wing rebuilding of the UUP. The end game is to ensure Northern Ireland’s place within the Union. Who has the courage to take the first step?

Remember, in the republican movement, someone took the first step in 1981 to contest elections to promote the IRA and INLA hunger strikes and look where Sinn Fein is electorally today.

The bitter political cyanide capsule we life-long UUP Right-wingers don’t ever want to have to bite is that we see the party continue on this worthless liberal woke agenda as it continues to fade electorally and we have to ask ourselves the serious question - are we still in the correct pro-Union party?

 
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Swing To The Right And Aim For Unionist Unity!

Dr John Coulter ✍ As we near the 4th July Westminster election showdown, more opinion polls are showing the hardline Right-wing Reform UK party edging ahead of the Tories.

However, while the only poll which counts is the election on America’s Independence Day, it is always wise to adopt the view that opinion polls can be wrong!

Just ask the Shinners in the 26 Counties how a few months ago Sinn Fein was riding high in the opinion polls, yet had a real disaster in the South’s local government and European elections.

My colleague at GB News, Nigel Farage, has once more stepped into the political front-line by taking over the leadership of Reform UK and standing as a candidate himself for Westminster.

This has the outgoing Tory Sunak camp in a real political head-spin, with countless opinion polls predicting a major Conservative catastrophe come 4th July.

Farage has shown himself to be a vote winner on the European front with both the United Kingdom Independence Party and Brexit Party, but has yet to make a significant breakthrough on the Commons green benches.

Ironically, some opinion polls showing Reform UK ahead of the Tories in terms of popularity have created the perception that Reform UK could become the official opposition to Labour - assuming, of course, the opinion polls are correct and that Labour will be declared the winner on 5th July and we don’t end up with another hung parliament.

In the event of such an outcome, namely a hung Parliament, could the votes of the Northern Ireland MPs make a real difference - with the exception of Sinn Fein which continues to administer its outdated abstentionist policy at Westminster from 1905 when the movement was founded.

Farage has over the years made a number of trips to Northern Ireland, especially during his UKIP days.

Based on my interview with him during my time at the Irish Daily Star, Farage’s popularity is built on the concept that he expresses what people think; he certainly cannot be branded as part of the woke community.

His predecessor as Reform UK leader signed a memorandum of understanding with Jim Allister’s TUV because the speed of the snap July poll did not give enough time for Reform UK to officially register as a political party in Northern Ireland.

But, as the TUV has discovered, Farage has a mind of his own and has endorsed a number of DUP candidates rather than support the TUV! For example, Farage is backing Ian Paisley junior in North Antrim rather than TUV boss Jim Allister! Seems more like a memorandum of misunderstanding politically!

For Unionism, there is now the real worry of the old proverb - too many cooks spoil the broth - coming true in the election. With multiple Unionist candidates standing in some constituencies, there is the real danger these seats could fall prey electorally to a non-Unionist on a split pro-Union vote.

However, could Reform UK be the key to creating practical Unionist unity in the future, even if it acted as a political catalyst for reforming (please excuse the pun!) the 1970s United Ulster Unionist Council, also known as the Unionist Coalition, or more affectionately as the Treble UC.

Its high point was the February 1974 Westminster General Election when UUUC candidates representing a number of Unionist parties took 11 of the 12 Commons seats up for grabs.

Is it possible that all pro-Union parties could form a merger under the banner of Reform UK, especially if the latter does become the official Opposition in the Commons after 5th July?

Ever since I reached voting age (and I’m now 64), the myth of Unionist unity has been kicked about like a political football. Just as the recent Southern elections were a sharp wake-up call to the Shinners, the 4th July poll results could be a similar wake-up call for the pro-Union community.

Since the 1990s, I have pushed my own Unionist ideology known as Revolutionary Unionism, which has the agenda of one party, one faith, one Commonwealth.

Folk - and particularly nationalists and republican - like to criticise the original Unionist party which ran Northern Ireland for decades. It was one single party with a number of influential pressure groups representing the various strands of the pro-Union community.

What is needed after 5th July when the results of the election become very clear is a single Unionist party in Northern Ireland to represent all shades of pro-Union thinking. Reform UK may well be that political vehicle, especially if it can gain a number of MPs.

Northern Ireland Unionism would then be part of a mainland party. This experiment was tried before in the 1990s with the Northern Ireland Conservatives when they got a number of constituency associations formally recognised by Tory central office.

However, apart from a handful of councillors, the closest the Ulster Tories came to a major electoral breakthrough was its North Down candidate, Dr Laurence Kennedy, coming within 5,000 votes of unseating the sitting North Down MP, the late Sir James Kilfedder of the Ulster Popular Unionist Party in the 1992 Westminster General Election.

The big question will always remain - can Unionism in Northern Ireland trust a GB-based political party, or will it be a case with Reform UK, like many other incidents, that an English-based movement has thrown Northern Ireland Unionism under the bus politically?

Let’s hope in terms of the Unionist family, Farage does not become another Ted Heath who disbanded the original Unionist-run Stormont, or Maggie Thatcher who signed the notorious Anglo-Irish Agreement, or John Major who signed the Downing Street Declaration, or David Cameron who didn’t plan for Brexit … get the point Nigel?
 
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UK Party Could Become The New United Unionist Party!

Caoimhin O’Muraile ☭ It has recently been brought to the attention of the public of trouble in the Unionist camp in the six counties. 

The controversary surrounds Jefferey Donaldson, the former leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Donaldson was also once a prominent member of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) when he had a falling out with then party leader, the late David Trimble over the latter’s support for the Good Friday Agreement (GFA). 

Back in 1983 and 1986 Jeffery Donaldson was the election campaign agent for the UUP candidate, the former far right Conservative and Unionist Party member and MP, Enoch Powell. Powell defected to the UUP back in the early eighties leaving the Tory party for a political restart in the six counties as a unionist. Powell was the man who made Hitlerite speeches about immigration in Britain and immigrants in general, claiming in a somewhat lunatic way that “rivers of blood” would flow if immigration did not cease. Donaldson obviously felt he had something in common with this racist, thus becoming his election agent.

In 2003 Donaldson left the UUP defecting to the party’s main rival the DUP under the stewardship of religious nutter, the late Ian Paisley. Paisley was also an opponent, at the time, of the GFA shouting or perhaps ranting would be a better term; Never, Never, Never! By this the firebrand meant never would he accept the GFA. Paisley, the man of God he would have us all believe did more to stoke up sectarian hatreds among an already volatile Protestant population than perhaps any other man. Jefferey Donaldson obviously felt he had more in common politically with the likes of the bigot Paisley and the racist Powell than the slightly more moderate brand of unionism in the UUP. Donaldson was also a member of the Orange Order and had served as a Corporal in the Ulster Defence Regiment, the successors to the murderous B. Specials.

Paisley eventually came to accept, if not at first embrace the GFA becoming the six county Stormont Assembly’s inaugural First Minister. Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness was the Deputy First Minister and the pair became known, at least in public, as the “Chuckle Brothers”. How much genuine likeness the men had for each other is anybody’s guess. Was this “Chuckle Brothers” purely for the general public? As the DUP entered Stormont so too did Donaldson even though he claimed to oppose the GFA. Between 2008 and 2009 he became a Junior Minister in the Stormont Assembly under the then leader, Peter Robinson who had succeeded Ian Paisley. In 2022 Jefferey Donaldson was once again elected to the ‘Northern Ireland Assembly but he subsequently chose to remain as a Westminster MP, rather than ‘double job’, with Emma Little-Pengelly taking his seat and is now the Deputy First Minister after Sinn Fein's Michelle O’Neil.

In March 2024 Donaldson stepped down as leader of the DUP having been charged with rape and historical sexual offences. The party immediately suspended his membership from the DUP. These are very serious charges and at the moment that is all they are, charges. As we are supposedly all equal before the law -  a myth which has developed in the annals of liberal democracy over the years and that is all this equality before the law is, a myth - it would come as no surprise if these charges against a Knight of the realm aren’t dropped. However, at the moment these allegations of rape are very much on the table and time will tell whether my sceptical approach bears any fruit. The fact is, whether I agree with any of Jefferey Donaldson’s policies, which I do not, or any other of the DUP’s 16th century Christian beliefs, is of no consequence,. H is still entitled, as are all of us, to the presumption of innocence until proved guilty if he is. Donaldson strongly denies these allegations so will, as things stand, be pleading not guilty it must be assumed.

Whether he is found guilty or not where does this leave ‘Ulster Unionism’? Jeffrey Donaldson has been a high-profile member of the two largest unionist parties, the UUP and DUP so in the event of a guilty verdict will there be an investigation by his former colleagues in the UUP as to whether he was up to these games while a member of their organisation? The third party of mainstream unionist politics is the much smaller Traditional Unionist voice (TUV). This group appear much more militant than either the UUP or DUP and are led by a firebrand, bordering on lunacy, called Jim Allister. At the moment the TUV are unaffected by the allegations against Donaldson and depending how far these investigations go the UUP can certainly not sit comfortably.

The other smaller parties in the Unionist/Loyalist camp are the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) who aligned very closely with the loyalist paramilitary group the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF). The other loyalist party is the Ulster Political Research Group, formerly the Ulster Democratic Party formed by the Ulster Defence Association (UDA)/Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF) and the Red Hand Commando. Irrespective of the outcome of the Donaldson investigations the result is hardly likely to affect either of these two small groups in any negative way. If he is found guilty, thus throwing mainstream unionism into turmoil that could have positive electoral results for these two smaller organisations.

Guilty or innocent, Jefferey Donaldson will not be the first well known politician to be brought down by scandal involving sex. In 1963 Jack Profumo, Minister for War, was brought down after his affair with escort girl, Christine Keeler. Keeler was also sleeping with Profumo’s opposite number in the Soviet Union, a situation which could not be allowed to continue. Later on Liberal Leader, Jeremy Thorpe. although acquitted,  was brought down after it was discovered he was having a homosexual affair, something which at the time was very much frowned upon. There were also allegations of child abuse against Margaret Thatcher’s Government, according to the Derry Journal; “former Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, was aware of rumours linking a senior MP with the sexual abuse of young boys but did nothing”. Thatcher soon had such reports quashed!

Jeffrey Donaldson must be afforded a fair trial, if that is possible, and by given the presumption of innocence until proven beyond all reasonable doubt otherwise. Once this rule is overlooked or dumped then the legal system is really in trouble. In many cases in both the 26 and 6 counties trial by jury have long been done away with for the trials of Irish Freedom Fighters, will they one day extend this even more unfair system to civilian trials. Such a violation of human rights has already been caried out in the twenty-six-counties against ‘Thomas Slab Murphy’ who was tried in the non-jury Special Criminal Court on income tax charges. This is something human rights activists should be watching closely because if they, the so-called authorities can get away with this once with no public outcry, they can do it time and time again.

Whatever the outcome of the Donaldson trial, assuming there will be one, it will be interesting to see where it leaves ‘Ulster Unionist’ politics in the future. Could it give nationalist parties, Sinn Fein and the SDLP more votes? Could it strengthen Alliance Party or the appeal of the two smaller loyalist parties in the future? Time will tell and whatever the outcome the political landscape in the six counties will be worth keeping an eye on!

Caoimhin O’Muraile is Independent Socialist Republican and Marxist.

Is ‘Ulster Unionism’ In Turmoil?

Dr John Coulter ✍ If Unionism is to re-emerge with the largest tally of MPs after the expected Westminster General Election later this year, it will require a Coalition of the Right - similar to the Seventies’ Unionist Coalition - to achieve that goal.

While Unionism is now bitterly divided between the pro-Donaldson deal faction within the DUP and the Ulster Unionists on one hand, and the anti-deal faction represented by the TUV and sections of the loyalist and Loyal Order community on the other, there is the real danger that an ancient proverb could haunt Unionism politically.

The proverb warns that too many cooks spoil the broth, and in Unionism’s case, too many candidates will fatally split the vote and allow traditionally fairly safe Unionist constituencies to return MPs from the so-called Pan Nationalist Front - Alliance, the SDLP and Sinn Fein.

Unionism needs to look to its history to prevent this electoral nightmare. In the February 1974 Commons General Election, three different parties combined under the banner of the United Ulster Unionist Council, or Unionist Coalition, and more affectionately known as the Treble UC.

The UUUC represented the DUP, UUP and Vanguard Unionists, winning 11 of the 12 Commons seats, leaving the SDLP’s Gerry Fitt to hold West Belfast.

The foundation of the new Unionist Coalition has already been created with the TUV unveiling its partnership with the GB-based Reform UK party, which emerged from the former Brexit Party.

Given the utterances from the TUV/Reform partnership, while it has been created primarily as a voice for anti-deal Unionism, it should use the Westminster campaign to build a Coalition of the Right for future Assembly and Council elections.

The Coalition of the Right’s primary aim should be to mobilise the pro-Union community electorally. How many Assembly, Council and Commons seats have been - or could be - lost simply because voting Unionists have abandoned the ballot box?

In 1974, the Right-wing Vanguard pressure group was able to mobilise grassroots Unionist opposition to the Sunningdale Executive. In 1985, the Ulster Clubs movement - based on the Unionist Clubs movement which opposed Home Rule for Ireland in the early 1900s - mobilised grassroots Unionists against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

When the UUP was the largest Unionist party, one of the most powerful pressures groups within its ranks was the Right-wing Ulster Monday Club, which once boasted four MPs and numerous councillors.

A Coalition of the Right should have as its motto - SOS - Save Our Seats, to ensure that as many pro-Union MPs are returned in the forthcoming General Election.

Yes, there are serious rifts within Unionism on how and where the Irish Sea Border should be eradicated. Unionism’s problem is not one of ideology, but an issue of strategy between those Unionists who feel the Irish Sea Border could be smashed from inside Stormont and those who believe the Donaldson Deal does not politically neutralise the Windsor Framework.

But all of Unionism does agree a number of key points - that the Union must be strengthened, that the pro-Union voting base must be mobilised, and that Unionists must co-operate to save existing Commons seats from falling to the Pan Nationalist Front parties.

If a Coalition of the Right adopts this agenda, it will pull in the vast majority of the DUP and the Right-wing of the UUP, leaving only a small rump of so-called liberal Unionists who can be likened to the liberal Pro-Assembly Unionists led by former Northern Ireland Prime Minister, the late Brian Faulkner, before he formed his Unionist wet, moderate movement, the now defunct Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.

But the key question will remain - do the various factions within Unionism have the courage and convictions to set aside their differences over the operation of the Windsor Framework and effectively build an electorally successful Coalition of the Right to hold Unionist seats?

Generally speaking, many pro-Union District Electoral Areas (DEAs) are averaging a turnout of just over 40 per cent on polling days, compared to just over 60 per cent in nationalist DEAs.

The first aim of the Coalition of the Right is to see that pro-Union turnout tops at least 80 per cent plus. It will not only require the Unionist parties to get voters registered, but also to ensure they actually make the effort to get to the polling station and vote.

Apathy, not a split Unionist vote, is the political malaise which is hounding the pro-Union community.

The Coalition of the Right must become a Vanguard-style grassroots pressure group operating at the key pro-Union target audiences - the Unionist middle class, the loyalist working class, the Loyal Orders, the Christian denominations and marching band scene. Its ethos must be the slogan - Your Vote Counts.

Only through this agenda can a Coalition of the Right prevent fragmentation of the Unionist vote, or voter apathy. More significantly, it can burst the so-called Alliance bounce and derail the so-called Sinn Fein bandwagon.

This is an agenda which many in the pro-Union community should be pondering on this Easter Monday as the traditional marching season for 2024 shifts into top gear.
 
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Right-Wing Unionism Radically Needs A New ‘Treble UC’

Dr John Coulter ✍ No matter what side you take on the British Government’s deal to the DUP to kickstart Stormont, Unionism should read up on the history of republicanism when the Dail voted on the Treaty terms in the early 1920s.

In that era, Sinn Fein split into two clear factions - the pro and anti-Treaty elements which simply could not come to an accommodation on the Treaty terms which partitioned Ireland.

The end result was a bloody Irish civil war between the anti-Treaty IRA and the pro-Treaty Free State forces which saw more IRA members executed by the Free Staters than were killed by the Black and Tans in the previous War of Independence against the British.

More than a century later, that post-civil war bitterness is still to be found in Southern Irish politics. While the civil war spawned the big two Dublin establishment parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, these bitter rivals came together after the last Dail General Election to keep Sinn Fein out of power in Leinster House.

As for the DUP in 2024, party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson finds himself in yet another Yes/No confrontation over the current deal as he did in 1998 in the UUP during the Yes/No confrontation over the Good Friday Agreement.

While the UUP went into the Stormont Assembly in 1998, the political seeds were sown in the party which ultimately led to both the leader, the late David Trimble, and the party’s demise. The UUP lost its place as the lead party in Unionism to the rival DUP in the 2003 Assembly poll.

Put bluntly, Trimble personally and the UUP politically paid a heavy price for endorsing the Good Friday Agreement in spite of effective devolution returning to Northern Ireland for the first time since the original Stormont Parliament was prorogued in 1972.

The key question which the pro-deal supporters in the DUP must answer - what price will the party have to pay if it decides to accept what the Government has offered, in spite of the Irish Sea border still in place?

In 1998, in spite of a split party, Trimble put the best interests of Northern Ireland first and kick-started devolution. That split sparked a very significant realignment in Unionism.

While the majority of the UUP MLAs in 1998 were in the Yes camp, the Unionist family’s No camp included UUP dissidents, the DUP and new Stormont movements such as the United Kingdom Unionist Party and the United Unionist Assembly Party.

The Yes/No divide in Unionism over the Belfast Agreement also bled into the Protestant religious denominations. Generally speaking, many in the mainstream denominations - the Church of Ireland, Irish Methodism and the Presbyterian Church - backed the Agreement.

However, in hardline evangelicalism and fundamentalism, there was a move to rally a number of the smaller denominations behind the No camp.

Fronting this was a movement launched in late 1998 called the Caleb Foundation, named after the Biblical Old Testament Israelite spy, Caleb.

While the Caleb Foundation was initially an attempt to rally fundamentalist opposition to the Evangelical Prayer Breakfast movement, the participation in Caleb of leading members of the Independent Orange Order gave the perception that Caleb was nothing more than the No camp at prayer.

For example, Caleb’s first chairman was the late George Dawson, then in 1998 the Grand Master of the Independent Orange Institution, and later an East Antrim DUP MLA at the time of his death in 2007.

Practically, can the DUP accept the current deal, kickstart the power-sharing Stormont Executive and ride out the realignment storm within Unionism.

Pro-deal Unionism does not have a good track record historically. As well as the demise of the UUP in the years after the Good Friday Agreement, pro-Sunningdale agreement Unionism was comprehensively defeated in the two Westminster General Elections in 1974.

Two years earlier, liberal Unionism under Northern Ireland PM’s Terence O’Neill and James Chichester-Clark could not save the original Stormont Parliament.

The unpalatable reality which Unionism must now face is that it is already split. All that needs to be decided is who will win the realignment battle and how bitter that fight will be.

In voting terms, could contests between pro- and anti-deal Unionist candidates at the next Westminster General Election cost Unionism seats, with traditionally Unionist constituencies returning either Sinn Fein or Alliance MPs on a split pro-Union vote?

In reality, pro-deal Unionism must starting preparing for a Plan B after the latest so-called Ulster Says No campaign inevitably fizzles out. Historically, in spite of the so-called monster rallies at Belfast City Hall in 1985 and 1986 and across Northern Ireland, the Ulster Says No and Ulster Still Says No campaigns did not halt the workings of the Anglo-Irish Agreement or the Dublin-run Maryfield Secretariat near Belfast.

Remember the Union flag protests? A lot of marching and stomping about as in 1985/86, but to no avail.

Pro-deal Unionism must be prepared to face down the No camp, whether that be at the ballot box, in the Assembly (if there is one!), in the council chambers, and even in the church pews.

Pro-deal Unionism must come up with a constructive ideological way forward for the pro-Union community in Northern Ireland.

It has one small advantage over the No camp. The latter will always be ‘agin’ anything and everything; they will moan, huff and puff, but ask them what they are prepared to offer in terms of something constructive - and the silence will be deafening!

Then again, has pro-deal Unionism the political courage to face down the No camp splitters, or worse still, like the late Sixties and early Seventies when the Paisleyites were lambasting O’Neillite Unionists, the latter withdrew from politics completely.

The last thing pro-deal Unionism needs is its supporters and thinkers walking away from the political arena, leaving the field open to the Pan Nationalist Front of Dublin, the SDLP, Sinn Fein and Alliance.
 
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Unionists Must Learn Lessons From Republican Treaty Split

Dr John Coulter ✍ Christmas beckons and still no Stormont! 

Could it be the DUP’s New Year resolution is to get the Assembly back before the next Westminster General Election?

The bottom line is that every Unionist of whatever shade knows if Sir Jeffrey Donaldson cannot deliver the DUP in one piece politically, then there’s not a snowball’s chance in the flames of hell of the party marching up the steps of Parliament Buildings and into the benches of the Assembly Chamber.

Indeed, the most likely outcome will be some form of Joint Authority, but not the old-style Direct Rule which was implemented by Westminster in the wake of the original Stormont Parliament being prorogued in 1972.

You can put whatever fancy festive wrapping on it as you like, Dublin will have an even greater say in the running of Northern Ireland which will make the arrangements under the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement look like a Sunday school picnic politically.

I’ve already warned in September that Unionism needs a Plan B if the British Government cannot deliver a formula or package which politically neuters the Windsor Framework. 

Basically, Unionism needs to play the Pan Nationalist Front of Sinn Fein, Dublin, the SDLP and Alliance at its own game.

Take the republican movement. With the Provos’ East Tyrone, South Armagh and South Derry brigades firmly in their kennels in terms of terrorist activity, the late former Derry IRA commander Martin McGuinness’s peace strategy in now in full swing.

Essentially, the republican movement is pushing Irish Unity from inside Stormont using Sinn Fein rather than bombing and shooting it from the outside using the IRA.

And if the opinion polls are correct, Southern Sinn Fein has successfully re-written the history of the Troubles and the Irish Civil War to convince a generation of new and first-time voters to give the party a crack at real government in Republic after the next Dail General Election.

There’s an old saying, ‘if you’re not in, you can’t win.’ Dublin played this game effectively after the 1985 Hillsborough Accord which established the Maryfield Secretariat located just outside Belfast.

While Unionism preferred to tramp the cold, wet streets of Northern Ireland during the icy winter of 1985 and 1986 with the failed Ulster Says No and Ulster Still Says No campaigns, Dublin worked away behind the scenes setting up the foundations of its first major role in running the six Northern counties since partition in the 1920s.

In reality, Unionism should have returned Tory PM Maggie Thatcher’s betrayal by setting up a so-called Unionist Embassy in Dublin’s Leinster House and demanding a real say in the running of the ‘Occupied 26 Counties’.

The last thing Dublin would have wanted was a bunch of hardline, Right-wing Unionists pontificating about how the South should be run. Had Unionism adopted this pro-active policy, the Anglo-Irish Agreement would have been dumped within months.

While Dublin warmly loves liberal Unionists, civic Unionism, and any type of Unionism which is concessionary or apologetic, the Leinster House administration cannot stand the thought of Right-wing Unionists poking their noses into the running of the 26 counties.

If Sinn Fein gets its hands on government after the next Southern General Election, be it as a majority government or a coalition administration, stand by for the republican movement seeking out a bunch of liberal Unionists and ecumenical Protestants it can parade as part of the plot to show that Sinn Fein really cares about the future of Unionism!

Plan B for Unionism is to wreck Irish Unity from the inside. Instead of boycotting all the so-called forums to discuss reunification of the island of Ireland, Unionists should be attending such functions and selling the idea of the 26 Counties rejoining a new Union of the British Isles and especially becoming an associate member of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA).

It’s no use Unionism waiting to see if Sinn Fein’s looney left-wing agenda on social housing will bankrupt the Irish Republic. Unionism should have the courage of its convictions to promote itself in any political forum.

By all means, Unionists should attend, for example, any conferences hosted by the Shared Island Forum, and stress the Two States Strategy for the geographical island of Ireland - Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland - until the time comes that Southern Ireland needs to join the New Union of the British Isles.

Unionism refusing to attend such forums only fuels the perception that it is an ideology purely on the defensive and in retreat after past council and Assembly election outcomes in Northern Ireland.

What Unionism needs is a new breed of ideological thinkers who can competently espouse a Unionist long-term agenda for this entire island.

Just as republicans look to the failed 1916 Easter Rising and the Presbyterian-driven United Irishmen’s campaign of 1798 as the historical foundation for their so-called democratic socialist 32-county ‘modern’ republic, so too, Unionism needs a fresh-thinking ideology with the long-term aim of getting Southern Ireland to firstly follow the UK out of the European Union, secondly to join the New Union of the British Isles, and thirdly become a full member of the CPA, a body which represents more than 50 national and regional parliaments across the globe.

If modern-day republicanism can re-write Irish history so that Southern voters can conveniently forget about the slaughter of the IRA during the Troubles and Irish Civil War, then Unionism must ideologically return the serve whereby a New Ireland is created as part of an expanded United Kingdom.

Scottish nationalism is now a busted flush; Welsh nationalism will never even leave the runway and Sir Keir Starmer will stamp out the republican anti-monarchist faction in British Labour.

In the early Eighties, folk laughed at the notion of Sinn Fein taking seats in the Dail or a Northern Assembly, or the notion of the DUP working with Sinn Fein in a power-sharing Executive at Stormont. Both are now a reality.

So don’t laugh at the notion that some day Southern Ireland will have no other option but to join the New Union of the British Isles. Unionist thinkers, get your pens out and begin now!
 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. 

Unionists Need A Plan B To Sicken Dublin!

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