However, while the only poll which counts is the election on America’s Independence Day, it is always wise to adopt the view that opinion polls can be wrong!
Just ask the Shinners in the 26 Counties how a few months ago Sinn Fein was riding high in the opinion polls, yet had a real disaster in the South’s local government and European elections.
My colleague at GB News, Nigel Farage, has once more stepped into the political front-line by taking over the leadership of Reform UK and standing as a candidate himself for Westminster.
This has the outgoing Tory Sunak camp in a real political head-spin, with countless opinion polls predicting a major Conservative catastrophe come 4th July.
Farage has shown himself to be a vote winner on the European front with both the United Kingdom Independence Party and Brexit Party, but has yet to make a significant breakthrough on the Commons green benches.
Ironically, some opinion polls showing Reform UK ahead of the Tories in terms of popularity have created the perception that Reform UK could become the official opposition to Labour - assuming, of course, the opinion polls are correct and that Labour will be declared the winner on 5th July and we don’t end up with another hung parliament.
In the event of such an outcome, namely a hung Parliament, could the votes of the Northern Ireland MPs make a real difference - with the exception of Sinn Fein which continues to administer its outdated abstentionist policy at Westminster from 1905 when the movement was founded.
Farage has over the years made a number of trips to Northern Ireland, especially during his UKIP days.
Based on my interview with him during my time at the Irish Daily Star, Farage’s popularity is built on the concept that he expresses what people think; he certainly cannot be branded as part of the woke community.
His predecessor as Reform UK leader signed a memorandum of understanding with Jim Allister’s TUV because the speed of the snap July poll did not give enough time for Reform UK to officially register as a political party in Northern Ireland.
But, as the TUV has discovered, Farage has a mind of his own and has endorsed a number of DUP candidates rather than support the TUV! For example, Farage is backing Ian Paisley junior in North Antrim rather than TUV boss Jim Allister! Seems more like a memorandum of misunderstanding politically!
For Unionism, there is now the real worry of the old proverb - too many cooks spoil the broth - coming true in the election. With multiple Unionist candidates standing in some constituencies, there is the real danger these seats could fall prey electorally to a non-Unionist on a split pro-Union vote.
However, could Reform UK be the key to creating practical Unionist unity in the future, even if it acted as a political catalyst for reforming (please excuse the pun!) the 1970s United Ulster Unionist Council, also known as the Unionist Coalition, or more affectionately as the Treble UC.
Its high point was the February 1974 Westminster General Election when UUUC candidates representing a number of Unionist parties took 11 of the 12 Commons seats up for grabs.
Is it possible that all pro-Union parties could form a merger under the banner of Reform UK, especially if the latter does become the official Opposition in the Commons after 5th July?
Ever since I reached voting age (and I’m now 64), the myth of Unionist unity has been kicked about like a political football. Just as the recent Southern elections were a sharp wake-up call to the Shinners, the 4th July poll results could be a similar wake-up call for the pro-Union community.
Since the 1990s, I have pushed my own Unionist ideology known as Revolutionary Unionism, which has the agenda of one party, one faith, one Commonwealth.
Folk - and particularly nationalists and republican - like to criticise the original Unionist party which ran Northern Ireland for decades. It was one single party with a number of influential pressure groups representing the various strands of the pro-Union community.
What is needed after 5th July when the results of the election become very clear is a single Unionist party in Northern Ireland to represent all shades of pro-Union thinking. Reform UK may well be that political vehicle, especially if it can gain a number of MPs.
Northern Ireland Unionism would then be part of a mainland party. This experiment was tried before in the 1990s with the Northern Ireland Conservatives when they got a number of constituency associations formally recognised by Tory central office.
However, apart from a handful of councillors, the closest the Ulster Tories came to a major electoral breakthrough was its North Down candidate, Dr Laurence Kennedy, coming within 5,000 votes of unseating the sitting North Down MP, the late Sir James Kilfedder of the Ulster Popular Unionist Party in the 1992 Westminster General Election.
The big question will always remain - can Unionism in Northern Ireland trust a GB-based political party, or will it be a case with Reform UK, like many other incidents, that an English-based movement has thrown Northern Ireland Unionism under the bus politically?
Let’s hope in terms of the Unionist family, Farage does not become another Ted Heath who disbanded the original Unionist-run Stormont, or Maggie Thatcher who signed the notorious Anglo-Irish Agreement, or John Major who signed the Downing Street Declaration, or David Cameron who didn’t plan for Brexit … get the point Nigel?
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