And before Irish nationalists start whooping with joy that Trump is also an ‘Irish republican’ as well as an American Republican because of his off the cuff comments about Irish unity, it should be remembered that The Donald is also an astute businessman.
If he needs to play the politics game when in Southern Ireland as laying the groundwork to getting Eire to join NATO, then play the united Ireland card! And who says it has to be an all-Ireland republic outside of the United Kingdom Trump is talking about?
Maybe he has embraced my concept of Revolutionary Unionism and wants to see an all-island state as part of the new Union of the British Isles as part of NATO.
Meanwhile, for generations under the Tsarist monarchy, Imperial Russia tried to dominate Europe. That collapsed with the 1917 communist revolution and the murder of Tsar Nicholas II and his family, but not before millions of Russians were killed in the Great War.
Next came several decades of communist dictatorship and Stalin’s purges which again saw millions of Russians slaughtered by the communists or died fighting in World War Two.
And now we have ex-KGB man Putin flexing his muscles militarily in Ukraine and constantly giving the diplomatic two-fingered salute politically to the UK using the Russian air force and navy to probe and test British readiness.
In spite of Eire’s Irish Defence Forces having a sterling record of service with the United Nations peace keeping forces in Lebanon and Africa, the Dail has constantly pussy-footed when it comes to joining NATO and playing a full role in the defence of Europe.
However, The Donald can be very persuasive and whether in private conversation or in diplomatic talks, he will have left Southern Ireland in no doubt that the geographical island of Ireland will have a key strategic role in any future showdown with the Russians.
And maybe The Donald could give British Prime Minister Andy Burnham a few tips on how ‘to grow a set’ militarily when it comes to dealing with the latest Argentinian threat to the British Falkland Islands.
Burnham needs to show the same patriotic spirit as one of his predecessors in Downing Street when in 1982 then Tory PM Maggie Thatcher sent a strong task force to the islands when the Argentinian military junta decided to invade the Falklands.
The Donald may have hinted that the US would remain tactically neutral in the event of the Argentinians attempting another invasion of the islands in a bid to get the UK to substantially strengthen its military capacity.
Burnham cannot afford to Irish-style pussy-foot with the hard line Argentinian government. He needs to indulge in the same fighting talk as The Donald does against Iran.
Burnham needs to tell Argentina’s ruling elite - put one toe on the Falklands and we’ll nuke your capital Buenos Aires! Israel has not messed about with the terrorists of Hamas or Hezbollah; the United States has not messed about with Iran or Venezuela; the SAS did not mess about with the IRA’s East Tyrone Brigade, so the British armed forces need to act tough with any Argentinian aggression.
Burnham needs to realise his soundbite honeymoon period as PM is over. He has also pledged to devolve more power to the United Kingdom’s regions, but with this problem of Russian aggression still on the agenda, the time has surely come to replace the 1998 Good Friday Agreement with a new Anglo-Irish Treaty which persuades Eire to abandon its traditional military neutrality.
Trump could be the political catalyst which prompts this military agenda - persuading Southern Ireland to join NATO, and persuading Burnham to radically increase military spending to make the UK on a realistic war footing.
While Burnham’s devolution strategy would probably see tax-raising powers devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly rather than Stormont having to rely on funding from Westminster, foreign policy will rapidly move to the top of his agenda.
Perhaps, too, Trump could persuade Burnham to give even limited military powers to Stormont - provided Assembly reform could see Sinn Fein out of power and Unionism once again running the show.
Burnham has to face the military bitter medicine that Russia is intent on constantly probing NATO’s capabilities and response times. During the original Cold War in the latter half of the 20th century, the geographical island of Ireland was always viewed by the Right-wing of the Conservative Party as ‘Britain’s Cuba’ - a military backdoor, not just into the UK, but also into significant parts of mainland Europe.
Since Ireland was partitioned in the 1920s as a result of the original Anglo-Irish Treaty, the then Free State (later the Irish Republic) has always maintained a strict military neutrality, especially in terms of full participation in NATO.
Indeed, the Irish Republic has not maintained a strict 100 per cent military neutrality as it has allowed American planes in the past to refuel on its territory in terms of rendition flights.
And while Irish republicanism may wish to see a border poll on Irish unity by 2030, the bitter reality is that the West may well be at war with Russia come that date.
In such a conflict, neutrality will not be an option as the island of Ireland is ideally located for stationing, arming and servicing NATO’s planes, ships and submarines. It would also be the perfect location, too, for land-based missiles to attack Russia’s northern fleet in the Atlantic. While Russia may wish to prioritise neutralising NATO’s missile capacity on mainland Europe, the ability to strike key targets in Russia from Irish-based missile sites may give NATO a tactical advantage.
The Middle East conflict is also presenting Burnham with an additional foreign policy headache. For several years, the British establishment has been struggling to contain the so-called small boat crisis, which has seen tens of thousands of illegal migrants and asylum seekers enter the UK from France using small rubber boats to cross the English Channel.
Militarily, there is the real danger that radical Islamic groups could use the small boat route to sneak terrorist activists into the UK.
It has not gone unnoticed by the current Iranian regime, which supports the terror groups Hamas and Hezbollah, that the UK allowed British bases to be used by the Trump regime in United States to attack Iran through airborne bombing raids.
The peace process triggered by that Good Friday Agreement has resulted in a more open travel border between Northern Ireland as part of the UK, and the rest of Southern Ireland. Likewise, many illegal migrants are also using this open border to access the UK via Northern Ireland and then on to mainland Britain.
Given Russia’s clear support for the Iranian regime, it makes military sense for Moscow to support the migrant route in Ireland as a means of getting radical Islamic terror activists onto the island, and therefore, as a back door to the wider UK and Europe.
Whether it be to act as buffers to combat either Russian expansionism or radical Islamic terrorism, it makes clear military sense for Burnham to negotiate a new Anglo-Irish Treaty to replace the Good Friday Agreement to ensure that Southern Ireland gives up its current military neutrality in exchange for a future pro-active and full participation in NATO.
Certainly, knowing the strategic importance of geographical Ireland, Burnham cannot afford to wait until Russia makes its military move on mainland Europe beyond the borders of Ukraine.
While Unionists may see any new Anglo-Irish Treaty as a shift towards Irish unity, Stormont and Dublin must be prepared to work together more closely to face the threat of Russian aggression head on. The Trump visit may well signal the start of this much-needed process.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Dr Coulter has been a journalist since 1978 and is currently a political commentator with GB News. |
