While Unionism is now bitterly divided between the pro-Donaldson deal faction within the DUP and the Ulster Unionists on one hand, and the anti-deal faction represented by the TUV and sections of the loyalist and Loyal Order community on the other, there is the real danger that an ancient proverb could haunt Unionism politically.
The proverb warns that too many cooks spoil the broth, and in Unionism’s case, too many candidates will fatally split the vote and allow traditionally fairly safe Unionist constituencies to return MPs from the so-called Pan Nationalist Front - Alliance, the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
Unionism needs to look to its history to prevent this electoral nightmare. In the February 1974 Commons General Election, three different parties combined under the banner of the United Ulster Unionist Council, or Unionist Coalition, and more affectionately known as the Treble UC.
The UUUC represented the DUP, UUP and Vanguard Unionists, winning 11 of the 12 Commons seats, leaving the SDLP’s Gerry Fitt to hold West Belfast.
The foundation of the new Unionist Coalition has already been created with the TUV unveiling its partnership with the GB-based Reform UK party, which emerged from the former Brexit Party.
Given the utterances from the TUV/Reform partnership, while it has been created primarily as a voice for anti-deal Unionism, it should use the Westminster campaign to build a Coalition of the Right for future Assembly and Council elections.
The Coalition of the Right’s primary aim should be to mobilise the pro-Union community electorally. How many Assembly, Council and Commons seats have been - or could be - lost simply because voting Unionists have abandoned the ballot box?
In 1974, the Right-wing Vanguard pressure group was able to mobilise grassroots Unionist opposition to the Sunningdale Executive. In 1985, the Ulster Clubs movement - based on the Unionist Clubs movement which opposed Home Rule for Ireland in the early 1900s - mobilised grassroots Unionists against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
When the UUP was the largest Unionist party, one of the most powerful pressures groups within its ranks was the Right-wing Ulster Monday Club, which once boasted four MPs and numerous councillors.
A Coalition of the Right should have as its motto - SOS - Save Our Seats, to ensure that as many pro-Union MPs are returned in the forthcoming General Election.
Yes, there are serious rifts within Unionism on how and where the Irish Sea Border should be eradicated. Unionism’s problem is not one of ideology, but an issue of strategy between those Unionists who feel the Irish Sea Border could be smashed from inside Stormont and those who believe the Donaldson Deal does not politically neutralise the Windsor Framework.
But all of Unionism does agree a number of key points - that the Union must be strengthened, that the pro-Union voting base must be mobilised, and that Unionists must co-operate to save existing Commons seats from falling to the Pan Nationalist Front parties.
If a Coalition of the Right adopts this agenda, it will pull in the vast majority of the DUP and the Right-wing of the UUP, leaving only a small rump of so-called liberal Unionists who can be likened to the liberal Pro-Assembly Unionists led by former Northern Ireland Prime Minister, the late Brian Faulkner, before he formed his Unionist wet, moderate movement, the now defunct Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
But the key question will remain - do the various factions within Unionism have the courage and convictions to set aside their differences over the operation of the Windsor Framework and effectively build an electorally successful Coalition of the Right to hold Unionist seats?
Generally speaking, many pro-Union District Electoral Areas (DEAs) are averaging a turnout of just over 40 per cent on polling days, compared to just over 60 per cent in nationalist DEAs.
The first aim of the Coalition of the Right is to see that pro-Union turnout tops at least 80 per cent plus. It will not only require the Unionist parties to get voters registered, but also to ensure they actually make the effort to get to the polling station and vote.
Apathy, not a split Unionist vote, is the political malaise which is hounding the pro-Union community.
The Coalition of the Right must become a Vanguard-style grassroots pressure group operating at the key pro-Union target audiences - the Unionist middle class, the loyalist working class, the Loyal Orders, the Christian denominations and marching band scene. Its ethos must be the slogan - Your Vote Counts.
Only through this agenda can a Coalition of the Right prevent fragmentation of the Unionist vote, or voter apathy. More significantly, it can burst the so-called Alliance bounce and derail the so-called Sinn Fein bandwagon.
This is an agenda which many in the pro-Union community should be pondering on this Easter Monday as the traditional marching season for 2024 shifts into top gear.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
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