Matt TreacyAs the Covid lockdowns continue in all parts of the island, there continues to be criticism of the heavy-handed approach adopted by both jurisdictions. 

10-November-2020

The northern lockdown is due to end on Friday, but there is a strong possibility that it will be extended. First Minister Arlene Foster said earlier that she hoped that there would be a decision made by the Executive sometime today.

 
There is seemingly disagreement among the different parties and it is interesting that Foster referred to a “five party coalition,” which might be taken as an attempt to shift the onus away from her own DUP and Sinn Féin which are the actual parties in charge. Several DUP figures have voiced their scepticism regarding the restrictions, while Sinn Féin is increasingly under the spotlight as it attempts to adopt one position in the south and another in the north.

Further pressure was placed on Stormont by the intervention by Dr. Tom Black of the northern section of the British Medical Association who responded to hints of any relaxation by depicting it as an “act of vandalism.” Black has called for a full lockdown on the same lines as the one in the south.

While Black’s statement was given prominent coverage, a letter from four doctors dissenting from his view, published last Thursday, has received much less coverage. That letter, addressed to the Executive and to all Stormont MLAs and northern Westminster MPs, was signed by Doctors Simon Walsh, Mark Spence, Andrew McNeice and Alaistiar Gray.

While not referring to Black by name, it is apparent that he is the “senior member of the local branch of the British Medical Association” to whom the letter refers. They point to a number of flaws in the scientific rationale for the restrictions which equally apply to the rest of the country. They point out, for example, that the statistics do not differentiate between patients admitted to hospital for other conditions who later test positive, and those specifically referred to hospital after a positive test

Many of the first category do not show any symptoms but once testing positive this leads to ward closures and unwarranted panic regarding “hospital outbreaks,” which undoubtedly then puts off others from attending hospital for non Covid conditions. That in turn along with the lockdowns contributes to increased mortality rates for other conditions.

Despite the mounting hysteria, they point out that the chances of anyone ending up in hospital after testing for the virus are much less than 5%, and that only between 10 and 20% of those end up requiring ventilation. As in other countries, the north is counting as Covid deaths where it is not in fact the contributing factor.

So not only is there no real idea of deaths directly caused by the virus, but all policy regarding restrictions are based on “worst case scenarios,” and the exaggerated importance given to the R number, which details the numbers infected by someone who has tested positive. With regard to the likelihood of the infection being passed on, they claim that “Closure of non-essential retail [has] very minimal impact on R values.”

Their main point, and this has been stressed by other critics of draconian restrictions, is that policy needs to be reconsidered in the light of “wider societal and health costs.”:
“To deprive our population of livelihood civil liberties and education, we believe that the evidence to support this should be scientifically robust and beyond reproach. That is clearly not the case.”

It will be interesting then to see which medical opinion the Executive chooses to take most into account in making its decision.



Matt Treacy has published a number of books including histories of the Republican Movement and of the Communist Party of Ireland.
He is currently working on a number of other books; His latest one is a novel entitled Houses of Pain. It is based on real events in the Dublin underworld. Houses of Pain is published by MTP and is currently available online as paperback and kindle while book shops remain closed.

Medics Say Lockdown Evidence Neither Scientifically Robust Nor Beyond Reproach

Matt TreacyAs the Covid lockdowns continue in all parts of the island, there continues to be criticism of the heavy-handed approach adopted by both jurisdictions. 

10-November-2020

The northern lockdown is due to end on Friday, but there is a strong possibility that it will be extended. First Minister Arlene Foster said earlier that she hoped that there would be a decision made by the Executive sometime today.

 
There is seemingly disagreement among the different parties and it is interesting that Foster referred to a “five party coalition,” which might be taken as an attempt to shift the onus away from her own DUP and Sinn Féin which are the actual parties in charge. Several DUP figures have voiced their scepticism regarding the restrictions, while Sinn Féin is increasingly under the spotlight as it attempts to adopt one position in the south and another in the north.

Further pressure was placed on Stormont by the intervention by Dr. Tom Black of the northern section of the British Medical Association who responded to hints of any relaxation by depicting it as an “act of vandalism.” Black has called for a full lockdown on the same lines as the one in the south.

While Black’s statement was given prominent coverage, a letter from four doctors dissenting from his view, published last Thursday, has received much less coverage. That letter, addressed to the Executive and to all Stormont MLAs and northern Westminster MPs, was signed by Doctors Simon Walsh, Mark Spence, Andrew McNeice and Alaistiar Gray.

While not referring to Black by name, it is apparent that he is the “senior member of the local branch of the British Medical Association” to whom the letter refers. They point to a number of flaws in the scientific rationale for the restrictions which equally apply to the rest of the country. They point out, for example, that the statistics do not differentiate between patients admitted to hospital for other conditions who later test positive, and those specifically referred to hospital after a positive test

Many of the first category do not show any symptoms but once testing positive this leads to ward closures and unwarranted panic regarding “hospital outbreaks,” which undoubtedly then puts off others from attending hospital for non Covid conditions. That in turn along with the lockdowns contributes to increased mortality rates for other conditions.

Despite the mounting hysteria, they point out that the chances of anyone ending up in hospital after testing for the virus are much less than 5%, and that only between 10 and 20% of those end up requiring ventilation. As in other countries, the north is counting as Covid deaths where it is not in fact the contributing factor.

So not only is there no real idea of deaths directly caused by the virus, but all policy regarding restrictions are based on “worst case scenarios,” and the exaggerated importance given to the R number, which details the numbers infected by someone who has tested positive. With regard to the likelihood of the infection being passed on, they claim that “Closure of non-essential retail [has] very minimal impact on R values.”

Their main point, and this has been stressed by other critics of draconian restrictions, is that policy needs to be reconsidered in the light of “wider societal and health costs.”:
“To deprive our population of livelihood civil liberties and education, we believe that the evidence to support this should be scientifically robust and beyond reproach. That is clearly not the case.”

It will be interesting then to see which medical opinion the Executive chooses to take most into account in making its decision.



Matt Treacy has published a number of books including histories of the Republican Movement and of the Communist Party of Ireland.
He is currently working on a number of other books; His latest one is a novel entitled Houses of Pain. It is based on real events in the Dublin underworld. Houses of Pain is published by MTP and is currently available online as paperback and kindle while book shops remain closed.

10 comments:

  1. "Lockdown" worked in New Zealand. It wasn't as bad as some might think it would be, and by "biting the bullet" like that for a limited period of time we are now basically virtually in the clear (as long as we don't let up on the precautions). Without lockdown, the fact is that the pandemic will be drawn out for a longer period of time, and while people will have more "freedom" during that time it means more will die than need to. Simple as that. When fighting a pandemic, "lockdown" is the best strategy. Temporary pain for long term relief.

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  2. We've just went three weeks with zero new cases or deaths in Victoria, which has a bigger population than Ireland. Lockdowns and masks WORK.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Lockdowns, AKA self imposed house arrest, gimping up because of a computer algorithm....I am playing no part in it and they can fcuk their vaccines, I'm not getting one. All the social distancing rules most are living by, I don't..

    Quillers, tool yourselves up and read the script, you will discover you are being sold a pup. You aren't getting the truth from your TV screens.

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    Replies
    1. Frankie

      Expect no sympathy from this quarter if your sociopathy leaves a big burning bole in your pocket.

      Delete
  4. Steve,
    C'mon now we've been through this. What the geographical layout? There's always variables. How do you know lockdowns work if there is no other means being tested? There's lockdown where I am and cases are rising, explain.

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    Replies
    1. I believe it works when it is observed. But it will be cyclical: brake on, it tapers down and brake off, it goes up. It makes sense that if we curb the spread factors it should go down. Why wouldn't it? Unless we have wrongly identified the spreading agents. Lockdown fatigue means it becomes progressively harder to implement lockdown. I think we are witnessing that in Ireland just now.

      Delete
  5. Anthony,
    I don't know if they work or not, passed caring. I know that's callous, but there you are. It's just a topic Steve's passionate about so I thought I would noise him up, before you got your nose in ruining my fun

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    Replies
    1. David,

      I was biting! But yes I'm passionate about it. I've always been fascinated by natural history and this is truly a momentous time in history!

      Yes there will always be variables but here in Victoria where I've moved to we have a very mobile population. It was no mean feat shutting down the entire state either, and the political opposition, invariably the Right, wanted us just to open up for business sake only.

      We have now carefully managed our re-opening with strong contact tracing, hygiene and compulsory mask wearing and we've managed to rid ourselves almost completely of the virus. We must remain vigilant however.

      There seems to be a confused lack of leadership in Ireland and the UK though. Someone needs to have balls and say "Fuck it, this is the shit we are in, it sucks, but there's only one way out of it and we all need to pull our weight. even then, some will die. That's just the reality."

      But nobody would because that's political suicide. I sadly still believe that the planet will lose around 10 to 15 million before we emerge from this.

      Delete
  6. Sean Mallory

    There is so much confusion now in disseminating the hard concrete scientific evidence for lockdowns from the evidence against such. I do believe that there is a high percentage of deaths here that are attributed to the virus when in fact the person died from underlying ill-health problems already fully established and whose death was not exacerbated by or accelerated by the virus even though they tested positive. There is of course the opposite too....people are dying needlessly.
    What really doesn’t help any understanding is Trumpian people like Sammy Wilson of the DUP attacking the credibility of the science and the scientists when he flaunts his disregard for convention so openly on public transport! You can say what you want but where life or death are the end products consideration is the order of the day.
    Lockdowns do work and the evidence supports that. They do stop the spread of infection. The unfortunate aspect of the current lockdowns known as circuit breakers is that like circuit breakers once they’ve been reset everything starts to flow again.
    Once the two week lockdown ends, in a short space of time as complacency takes hold again we will be right back to where we were in September and the cycle will begin all over again. This time though I believe all the governments are clearly gambling on the multiple vaccines available to stave of the inevitable climb of the R rate. Distributing these vaccines will be the real test of good governance and logistical skills which if we take Track and Trace as a bench mark to date....then don’t hold your breath!.....we are in for a brutal January / February and March.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Steve,
    All kidding aside. I was never anti lockdown but voices that argue that measures are counterproductive or worse in the long should be given the same respect as pro lockdown, particularly from epidemiologists.
    Death from this was always unavoidable. We have to leave individual stories and emotions out of it. Say estimates are 15 million deaths. That should be weighed against the deaths caused by the western economy shrinking. Deaths are part and parcel, healthy economies have higher life expectancies. Therefore should logic not dictate that it's not only Tories who prefer a strong economy, is it not also in the interests of those in high risk situations to want a strong support structure?

    ReplyDelete