Matt TreacyJust when it seemed that President Donald Trump was heading for an inevitable defeat to Joe Biden, there are signs that he may indeed be turning things around.

The polls following the Democrat convention which began on Monday evening will be interesting, as will those in the week after the Republican convention next weekend. As it stands, Biden still looks like winning, but an August 17 poll commissioned by CNN showed that Biden’s lead had slipped to 4%. Margin of error territory.
 
Photo Credit: Michael Vardon CC licence 

A matter of interest and comparison, of concern to the Democrats, is that a corresponding CNN/ORC poll in August 2016 had Hilary Clinton ahead of Trump by a full 9%, No one was giving him a chance and yet …

In 15 key states, Biden’s lead is just 1% so the trends would appear to favour Trump despite the chaos and panic that the mass media presents to the world in the midst of the Covid crisis, and the protests and violence that followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May.

Interestingly, there is a massive gap between the perception of all of this among those who favour one or other of the candidates. Democrats obviously blame or pretend to blame the President for the virus, while a huge majority of Trump voters do not even consider it to be of the scale of importance one might imagine.

While 57% of Biden supporters regard race as a main issue, only 22% of Trump voters agree. It will be interesting to see what the electoral impact of the violence, looting and murder in Democrat controlled cities will be. Will Nixon’s silent majority have the decisive say on November 3?

If that comes to pass, Trump’s pre-Covid record will have stood to him. He is almost unique as POTUS in not having begun any new wars, nor escalated American involvement in those disaster zones initiated by his predecessors of both parties.

While the Cassandras were predicting a nuclear war with North Korea, Trump put the lunatics in Pyongyang back into their red box. Likewise, Erdogan’s throwing shapes in the direction of the Kurds who had borne the fight against IS with American military aid was nipped in the bud. Walk softly and carry a big stick.

Some other random takes are the fact that poverty levels had fallen preCovid to their lowest levels since 2000. The poverty rate for black families had fallen to the lowest level since separate statistics began to be collected several decades ago.

Violent crime had fallen in every year since 2016 and prison numbers are lower now. The decline of the Democrat cities into anarchy may have reversed the first trend this year as Chicago and New York’s liberal elites appear intent on turning back to the dark days of the 1990s. Another success in tackling crime has been the First Step programme for the rehabilitation of less serious criminals.

A whole raft of improvements in the situation of lower income and small business working people have undoubtedly taken a hit with the virus, but even in the midst of all of this, underlying signs are not as bad as in other democracies.

The odds against Trump are falling, but still favour Biden. He has less than three months to save his Presidency. It is all to play for.


Matt Treacy has published a number of books including histories of the Republican Movement and of the Communist Party of Ireland.
He is currently working on a number of other books; His latest one is a novel entitled Houses of Pain. It is based on real events in the Dublin underworld. Houses of Pain is published by MTP and is currently available online as paperback and kindle while book shops remain closed.

Can Trump Win In November?

Matt TreacyJust when it seemed that President Donald Trump was heading for an inevitable defeat to Joe Biden, there are signs that he may indeed be turning things around.

The polls following the Democrat convention which began on Monday evening will be interesting, as will those in the week after the Republican convention next weekend. As it stands, Biden still looks like winning, but an August 17 poll commissioned by CNN showed that Biden’s lead had slipped to 4%. Margin of error territory.
 
Photo Credit: Michael Vardon CC licence 

A matter of interest and comparison, of concern to the Democrats, is that a corresponding CNN/ORC poll in August 2016 had Hilary Clinton ahead of Trump by a full 9%, No one was giving him a chance and yet …

In 15 key states, Biden’s lead is just 1% so the trends would appear to favour Trump despite the chaos and panic that the mass media presents to the world in the midst of the Covid crisis, and the protests and violence that followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May.

Interestingly, there is a massive gap between the perception of all of this among those who favour one or other of the candidates. Democrats obviously blame or pretend to blame the President for the virus, while a huge majority of Trump voters do not even consider it to be of the scale of importance one might imagine.

While 57% of Biden supporters regard race as a main issue, only 22% of Trump voters agree. It will be interesting to see what the electoral impact of the violence, looting and murder in Democrat controlled cities will be. Will Nixon’s silent majority have the decisive say on November 3?

If that comes to pass, Trump’s pre-Covid record will have stood to him. He is almost unique as POTUS in not having begun any new wars, nor escalated American involvement in those disaster zones initiated by his predecessors of both parties.

While the Cassandras were predicting a nuclear war with North Korea, Trump put the lunatics in Pyongyang back into their red box. Likewise, Erdogan’s throwing shapes in the direction of the Kurds who had borne the fight against IS with American military aid was nipped in the bud. Walk softly and carry a big stick.

Some other random takes are the fact that poverty levels had fallen preCovid to their lowest levels since 2000. The poverty rate for black families had fallen to the lowest level since separate statistics began to be collected several decades ago.

Violent crime had fallen in every year since 2016 and prison numbers are lower now. The decline of the Democrat cities into anarchy may have reversed the first trend this year as Chicago and New York’s liberal elites appear intent on turning back to the dark days of the 1990s. Another success in tackling crime has been the First Step programme for the rehabilitation of less serious criminals.

A whole raft of improvements in the situation of lower income and small business working people have undoubtedly taken a hit with the virus, but even in the midst of all of this, underlying signs are not as bad as in other democracies.

The odds against Trump are falling, but still favour Biden. He has less than three months to save his Presidency. It is all to play for.


Matt Treacy has published a number of books including histories of the Republican Movement and of the Communist Party of Ireland.
He is currently working on a number of other books; His latest one is a novel entitled Houses of Pain. It is based on real events in the Dublin underworld. Houses of Pain is published by MTP and is currently available online as paperback and kindle while book shops remain closed.

28 comments:

  1. Biden clearly has the onset of Alzheimer's, and his 'tactile' nature with females young and old has not gone unnoticed. An utter disaster whoever wins.

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    1. Steve,

      females like males come into this world with innate intelligence and resourcefulness, and yes culturally some of this is often conditioned out, that said though, the women that Biden most likely interacted with cannot truthfully be classed mostly as victims.

      Such overly woke responses are ultimately destructive to the female gender.

      Delete
  2. At this point it looks that the only way the Democrats can lose is if they have a fit of madness and decide to run Hilary.

    Then again, there are indications that Trump is trying to find reasons to not accept the result.

    The immortal words of Reggie Maudling spring to mind when he on the flight back from Belfast to London he asked for a large Scotch to the words "what a bloody awful country"!!!

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  3. Creepy Joe or The Donald...The Donald is better entertainment and for that reason I want him to win...

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    1. If by "entertainment" you mean separating children from their parents and flinging them imto cages on the Mexican border or using brute force on peaceful demonstrators in the mmanner of the tin-pot dictators that he loves (and is), then you are welcome to it, Frankie.

      Delete
  4. Anthony,
    What indications he won't accept the result? This guy's has been a Russian spy, a white supremacist, a manipulator of conferences and legitimate voting. He's bent the USPS to his nefarious will, now he's going to pull a coup in the most scrutinised political circus on the planet? Not bad for a guy who thinks you should ingest bleach.

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    1. David - his own statements and that of his front woman. I am not convinced he is a Russian spy.

      Delete
  5. One thing to remember is that in the last election Clinton received 2.9 million more popular votes than Trump did, but she still lost. That's because the POTUS is not elected by "the people" but rather by the archaic and corrupt Electoral College. That could happen again. It is not sufficient that Biden just receive more votes than Trump does. (The Electoral College was established to protect slavery, because the "free" states in the US had a larger population than the "slave" states in the south).

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  6. Anthony,
    You would need to elaborate, I'm not really aware. My point is every conspiracy theory is automatically believed if it's anti-Trump. I watch people blatantly contradict themselves, assault their own intelligence all to fit in with the orange man bad narrative, it's laughable.
    The man's a piece of shit, but, so is his predecessor and successor. They vote him out, great, they don't, what's the difference?

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    1. David - here is an example just pulled casually from the web.Here
      Automatically believed by who? Some, many, a majority, minority?
      The Orange man is very bad.
      But none of them are very good. But even in terms of bad there is bad, worse and even worse.
      My attitude is go for those who best enhance the possibility of making life more tolerable, even if only slightly, for the widest body of people.
      That is progress of a sort, limited as it is.

      Delete
  7. Barry,

    This is what I know...When you do the math's between The Donald, Kamala Harris or Creepy Joe, The Donald is better entertainment. Let's clear up a few misconceptions and un truths.


    If by "entertainment" you mean separating children from their parents and flinging them imto cages on the Mexican border

    This is from AP News August 18 2020. Michelle Obama and the kids in ‘cages’ .

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Michelle Obama assailed President Donald Trump on Monday for ripping migrant children from their parents and throwing them into cages, picking up on a frequent and distorted point made widely by Democrats.
    She’s right that Trump’s now-suspended policy at the U.S.-Mexico border separated thousands of children from their families in ways that had not been done before. But what she did not say is that the very same “cages” were built and used in her husband’s administration, for the same purpose of holding migrant kids temporarily.

    I'll clear up who had dealings with Russia, the Uranium One scandal"

    New York Times April 2015

    "Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal....

    As the Russians gradually assumed control of Uranium One in three separate transactions from 2009 to 2013, Canadian records show, a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors."....

    Kamala Harris is more interested in power and dollars than anything else and her words mean nothing. She is no different to Hillary. Kamala said she wanted to stand for the common man/woman etc...The Huffington Post wrote an article called.....Why Did Kamala Harris Let Herbalife Off The Hook?. This is what they reported (read the article Barry...)

    " Harris declined to investigate Herbalife, the nutritional supplement company that has been accused of fraudulent marketing practices. Documents exclusively obtained by Yahoo News show that in 2015, prosecutors in the San Diego office of the California attorney general sent Harris a lengthy memorandum that argued for an investigation into Herbalife...

    About three weeks after the San Diego letter was sent, Harris received the first of three donations to her campaign for the U.S. Senate from Heather Podesta, the powerful Washington lobbyist whose ex-husband Tony’s firm, then called the Podesta Group , had worked for Herbalife since 2013. Heather Podesta’s own lobbying firm, Heather Podesta and Partners, would soon be hired by Herbalife, too...."

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  8. So Kamala allowed herself to get paid off by way of donations from the Podesta's to not prosecute Herbalife. She also said 'I believe' Biden accuser

    The Hill Michael Burke 04/03/19

    Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) said Tuesday that she believes women who say they felt uncomfortable after receiving unwanted touching from former Vice President Joe Biden.

    "I believe them and I respect them being able to tell their story and having the courage to do it," Harris said at a presidential campaign event in Nevada..

    Joe Biden accuser Tara Reade has told DailyMail.com in an exclusive interview that Kamala Harris abandoned her principles and her vow to protect sexual assault survivors in order to become the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee.

    Reade said: 'I'm disappointed with Kamala with her being the Vice Presidential nominee. It's the height of hypocrisy for her to accept the VP nominee position. 'She's a hypocrite. She saw an opportunity to seize a position of power and she took it, turning a blind eye to sexual assault victims.'.....

    Basically Barry Michelle Obama distort
    s the truth about the cages. Hillary apart from everything else had dealings with Russia from at least 2009, made a few million out of it and she didn't declare any of it. Kamala Harris refused to prosecute Herbalife for fraud because the Podesta's had more than an interest in Herbalife and bought her. Harris is also prepared to stand beside a Biden, who she believes carried out sexual assaults' (possibly rape) on women.

    (Maybe nothing but Kamala has a sister called Maya who Attended a Hillary Clinton/Podesta “Pizza Party”...)

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    1. So what? All public figures have made mistakes/misjudgements and committed sins of omissions. Because nobody is perfect.

      My question stil stands, Frankie. Do you want the relection of somebody wnho hasa called Congressional reps "traitors"; who calls women "dogs" and boasts of "grapping pussy"; somebody who inflames racial tensions by quoting racist police chiefs from the 60s (when the looting starts, the shooting starts"); somebody who tnhinks there are very fine people amonsgst neo-nazis, the KKK and white supremacists; someonw wnho is barefaced liar? I can go on and on and on ....

      So do you want him relected for his "entertainmwent value" or becasue you like his politics and use of dog-whistle prejudices or both? I have seen plenty of evidecne from your posts, not least on Covid-19, which would suggest a Trump/Alt-Right suppporter.

      Joe Biden may not ne everyone's ideal Democratic nominee. But the alternative to his electio may well be the end of democracy in the US with a contagion effect throughout the West.

      Delete
  9. Anthony,
    A press secretary avoiding questions isn't tantamount to a coup. Automatically believed by CNN MSNBC etc. Aaron Mate an investigative journalist dissected the Russian nonsense right from the off, he's no Trump supporter, just a proper journalist.
    To go for those for those who do the least harm is reasonable that's not what is irritating, what is, is the sensationalism. Like Barry's statement about it being the end of democracy, it's embarrassing. There's no critical thinking behind these statements. Trump's a fascist, the democrats are Marxists etc it's ridiculous.

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  10. David - I made no mention of a coup.

    What I said verbatim is: "Then again, there are indications that Trump is trying to find reasons to not accept the result."

    You do not have to believe that his press secretary's comments are consistent with what I said.

    Nor do you have to believe what Trump says is consistent with what I said either.
    Your call.

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  11. Anthony,
    If him not accepting the result isn't a pathway to a coup, why mention it? If all he's going to do is whinge about the unfairness the result, who cares? Hillary Clinton's did that for fours years and nobody cared

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    1. I stated it because he said it. Read it for yourself. If you think he is lying, your call. Wouldn't be the first time.
      It might be the pathway to a coup or to him delaying and fucking about.
      The normal response would "of course I will except the outcome."
      The fact that you immediately inferred from my comment an intent to coup should tell you something about the language he is using.

      Delete
  12. I did read it, nothing he says surprises me. What surprises me is rational people believing this self indulgent property developer, game show host turned politician is going to change US politics. The only reason he's in power is the political class completely underestimated the feeling of contempt the public has for them. This charlatan ran as an anti-establishment candidate and they put up Hillary Clinton against him. If he stays power, however unlikely,it will be because after calling him a rapist, the nominated a man who has rape allegations to stand against him. In the age of BLM they chose a VP who has a horrendous record as a prosecutor.
    I know I digress but instead of putting energy in to conspiracy theories against Trump, why not instead put forward an opponent worth voting. If they treat voters with contempt you get Trump and Brexit. They can't even acknowledge that fact instead they tell us the working class trying to get by are somehow all closet racists.
    Back to the point he uses this language, in my view, because it gets his base fired up, that's it.

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    1. None of that is the issue here. It is a very clear issue. He either intimated that he might not accept the result or he did not intimate it.

      Delete
  13. Of course it's the issue. It's all intertwined. His anti-establishment rhetoric and the overreaction to his words. Of course he said it doesn't mean he'll do it. He said he was going to build a wall and imprison Clinton, it's all bullshit. That's the nucleus of the issue.

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  14. The issue for you. Never for me. My point has been clear. There are indications that he might not accept the result. You are free not to believe that they are indications. Such a disbelief merely needs stated not a meander away down other paths.

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  15. Barry,

    So what? All public figures have made mistakes/misjudgements and committed sins of omissions. Because nobody is perfect.

    Does that include The Donald...?

    What you fail to understand Barry is it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always get's in. What you vote for is the illusion of democracy. Banks, Technocrat's, Globalist's etc are going to tell the heads who you vote for what to do otherwise they don't get the money...It is as simple as that.

    Do you want the relection of somebody wnho hasa called Congressional reps "traitors"; who calls women "dogs" and boasts of "grapping pussy"; somebody who inflames racial tensions by quoting racist police chiefs from the 60s (when the looting starts, the shooting starts")

    Let's clear up again the pussy remark made by The Donald. Quillers raise your hand, have you ever been in the company of a friend/s and someone made a similar remark that The Donald made and laughed it off? My calculations make it more than 50+1% of the Quillers have been in the company of someone who made 'a gropping pussy' joke...

    From the 'Left Voice' about Creepy Joe....Joe Biden is a Racist Who Loves Police Brutality , check it out Barry and click on the links and test the argument yourself. Difference is with The Donald you know what you are getting. Creepy Joe, apart from being a racist , Kamala believes his accuser's, who he sexually abused.....Do you believe Tara Reade?

    Kamala Harris Was Not a ‘Progressive Prosecutor’ ..

    Time after time, when progressives urged her to embrace criminal justice reforms as a district attorney and then the state’s attorney general, Ms. Harris opposed them or stayed silent. Most troubling, Ms. Harris fought tooth and nail to uphold wrongful convictions that had been secured through official misconduct that included evidence tampering, false testimony and the suppression of crucial information by prosecutors.

    Ms. Harris was criticized in 2010 for withholding information about a police laboratory technician who had been accused of “intentionally sabotaging” her work and stealing drugs from the lab. After a memo surfaced showing that Ms. Harris’s deputies knew about the technician’s wrongdoing and recent conviction, but failed to alert defense lawyers, a judge condemned Ms. Harris’s indifference to the systemic violation of the defendants’ constitutional rights. Ms. Harris also championed state legislation under which parents whose children were found to be habitually truant in elementary school could be prosecuted, despite concerns that it would disproportionately affect low-income people of color. In 2015, she opposed a bill requiring her office to investigate shootings involving officers.

    Worst of all, though, is Ms. Harris’s record in wrongful conviction cases. Consider George Gage, an electrician with no criminal record who was charged in 1999 with sexually abusing his stepdaughter, who reported the allegations years later. The case largely hinged on the stepdaughter’s testimony and Mr. Gage was convicted. Afterward, the judge discovered that the prosecutor had unlawfully held back potentially exculpatory evidence, including medical reports indicating that the stepdaughter had been repeatedly untruthful with law enforcement. Her mother even described her as “a pathological liar” who “lives her lies.”
    .......
    Again you claim I support one side or the other...I DON'T VOTE, NEVER HAVE. I will vote in a OIOV and on the ballot paper there is a box to tell London and Brussels to fcuk off from the island and let the Irish rule themselves...

    The Donald, he is better entertainment.

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    1. I have rarely, if ever, been in the company of people (usually unreconstructed male chauvinist arseholes) wnho engage in locker room bantz such as "pussy grabbing" and would never laugh it off nor do I belioeve would most TPQ readers.

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  16. So ypou do not vote then, Frankie. Then the work and sacrifices made by the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Movement were lost on you obviously.

    And you will have to better than repost articles from Trot propaganda organs and conspiracist whackjobs like InforWars to try to change my views.

    Democracy is imperfect because society and the human condition is imperfect. But representative democracy along with a healthy civil society and separation of powers is thea most equitable and effective way of achieving good governance.

    You really do bore me with your Faragist spiel about the hidden power of bankers and globalists (with the not so subtle inferecne about the power of a certain ethno-religious group).



    The overwhelming majority of electors in Ireland North and South weant to remain in the EU. As a result of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreemwent( a monument to the late, great John Hume) assented to by supermajorities in both NI and ROI, the Irish people effectivdely rule themselves. Try to get used to these realities.

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  17. He would win easily but for the coroniebalonie. Hence why it's lasted so long. Pure coincidence of course!

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  18. Anthony,
    Sorry for the tardiness of my reply. Had a bit of a session on Monday, still don't feel right. Fair enough, you're just reporting facts. I believe the way we amplify his every word actually helps him. It irritates me slightly, don't really know why, it has no bearing on me, but there you are.

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    1. there is probably something in that yet we can hardly avoid flagging up any possible dangers that might exist

      Delete