Showing posts with label environmental issue. Show all posts
Showing posts with label environmental issue. Show all posts
People And Nature Written by Simon Pirani.

A carbon capture project is being used to greenwash the expansion of one of the UK’s largest waste incinerators, at Belvedere, Kent.

Cory Topco, which owns one incinerator and is building another, says it will capture greenhouse gases from burning waste, liquefy them, and send them by ship to Yorkshire, to be piped under the North Sea and stored.

πŸ”΄ Cory promises to capture more than 90% of its incinerators’ greenhouse gas emissions – but no carbon capture plant on earth ever got close to that.

πŸ”΄ Cory has an agreement with Viking CCS to to offtake its captured carbon in Yorkshire and bury it under the North Sea – but there are doubts about how, and whether, that could work. Competition authority officials, who say non-pipeline schemes should not get government funding, could cause problems.

Crossness Nature Reserve, Belvedere, with the Cory incinerator in the background.
Photo: Dudley Miles / Creative Commons

πŸ”΄ Cory claims it will generate electricity to power 371,000 homes – but is more likely to put less than half of that into the grid. The CCS plant would have a devastating impact, though – doing irreparable damage to the Crossness nature reserve.

πŸ”΄The incinerator expansion will encourage local authorities to send waste for burning that could be avoided or recycled, reinforcing fossil-heavy economic throughput and putting the impact-light “circular economy” ever further out of reach.

πŸ”΄ Cory hopes the project will be funded by the government’s multi-billion-pound carbon capture subsidy schemes – money that could be spent more effectively on genuine decarbonisation measures.

Doubts about Cory’s claims it can capture 90% of greenhouse gas emissions at Belvedere arise from carbon capture and storage (CCS)’s 40-year global history of failure.

Cory would use post-combustion carbon capture technology, that pulls carbon dioxide out of the flue gases (i.e. gases coming out of chimneys) with amine solvents.

Only one company in the world – SaskPower, which operates the Boundary Dam coal-fired power station in Saskatchewan, Canada – uses this method. In more than ten years of operation it has not once hit its target of capturing 90% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Boundary Dam’s average capture rate was about 50%, not 90%, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) found. Less than 65%, said separate analysis by Carbon Tracker.

Some CCS has higher capture rates, but only at gas processing plants, where the CO2 is easier to collect, because it comprises such a big proportion (up to 90%) of the flue gases. Even these plants struggle to make the process pay: usually they do so by pumping the CO2 back into oil fields, to increase the pressure underneath oil deposits and make them easier to produce … which obviously defeats any decarbonisation purpose.

Cory’s Belvedere plant is not the only one plagued by doubts that CCS can work. Almost all projects proposed in the UK have been “delayed, cancelled or undisclosed”, the energy consultancy Ember reported, scathingly, in November. “No project has moved beyond the pilot phase or begun construction. No carbon has been captured at commercial scale”, it remarked.

The stakes are highest with waste-to-energy plants like Cory’s, because they belch out even more carbon dioxide per unit of electricity generated than coal-fired power stations, as UN Environment Programme and European Union researchers have shown.

The answer, campaigners for a “circular economy” say, is to switch resources into reducing the volume of waste, and sorting what is unavoidable.

Investment in incinerators, and CCS for them, is an “expensive, high-risk distraction” from other more effective approaches, a report by Zero Waste Europe and Only Solutions showed. “Do not build” should always be top of the policy hierarchy, they argued; bad as landfill is, sending plastic and/or biostabilised waste there is better than burning it.

The carbon capture unit at the Boundary Dam power station in Canada.
Photo: Implicit Matrix / Creative Commons

Further research by Zero Waste Europe and Equanimator showed that sorting mixed waste is “always swift and cost-effective” – a “lower-regret solution with much less potential for lock-in”.

Another giant question mark looms over the proposal to liquefy the captured CO2 at Belvedere and ship it to Yorkshire’s east coast, for burial under the North Sea by Viking CCS.

Viking, sponsored by Harbour Energy, Associated British Ports and the oil company BP, could be eligible for subsidies under Track 2 of the government’s £22 billion Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) programme. A Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) report has been commissioned, but a final investment decision, expected in 2025, was not taken.

And officials at the Competition and Markets Authority have, potentially, thrown a spanner in the works: their 2024 report on the Waste Industrial Carbon Capture scheme, under which Cory hopes to receive funding, says projects using non-pipeline transport – such as Cory’s ships – should not be considered.

A government consultation on non-pipeline transport, running until 1 May, could further frustrate Cory.

On top of that, carbon capture researchers say that the oil industry is dangerously exaggerating the potential for undersea storage of greenhouse gases.

Studies of two apparently successful projects, Sleipner and Snohvit in the North Sea off Norway, show that “the security and stability of the two fields have proven difficult to predict”, reported IEEFA, drawing together conclusions from multiple research papers. “Each CCS project has unique geology”; “geologic storage performance for each site can change over time”; and “high quality monitoring and engineering response is a constant ongoing requirement”.

All this “calls into question the long-term technical and financial viability of the concept of reliable underground carbon storage”.

The two Norwegian fields bury only 1.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Nevertheless, Viking says that it can store “up to 10mt of CO2 annually by 2030”.

Cory’s claim that its new plant, complete with CCS, will produce enough electricity to power 371,000 homes is exaggerated.

Cory’s existing Riverside 1 incinerator, and Riverside 2, which is under construction, could together burn 1.5 million tonnes of waste per year. And that could produce about 1230 gigawatt hours (GWh) per year of electricity.

About one tenth of that electricity would run the two incinerators. And between a third and a half would power the energy-intensive process that captures CO2 – plausibly leaving between 488 GWh and 734 GWh to go to the grid. (See detailed estimates below, “Cory’s business model”.)

Assuming (as Cory does) that an average home uses 2800 kWh in a year, there would be enough for, at most, 262,000 homes, or, more likely, 175,000 homes – less than half the 371,000 that Cory claims.

Cory also says that up to 300,000 London homes could receive heat via a grandiose plan to pipe it from Riverside. But this idea, first mooted in a simpler version more than a decade ago, is still nowhere near construction.

Far more certain is the damage the CCS plant would do, if built, to the Crossness Nature Reserve next to the incinerator, a remnant of ancient marsh grazing land and home to a cornucopia of wildlife.

In giving the go-ahead to the CCS project with a Development Consent Order (DCO), the government admitted its “great negative weight” on the reserve – but rejected calls by the Save Crossness Nature Reserve campaign and others to disallow expansion.

Cory’s speculative CCS project could end up just facilitating expansion of incinerator capacity – when any serious climate policy, and any rational waste management regime, would seek to reduce it.

This is part of an international trend: a waste-to-energy sector that, “at odds with the circular economy”, relies on an increasing volume of waste and creates a “scramble for waste”, as the Transnational Institute put it. This model “creates a dependency on waste, which runs counter to the principle of waste avoidance” and “stands in direct contrast to recycling initiatives”.

Shlomo Dowen of the UK Without Incineration Network (UKWIN) said in an interview that incinerator overcapacity stimulates demand for supposedly “residual” waste, most of which can and should be sorted and/or recycled – “and this is being exacerbated by industries such as sustainable aviation fuel and cement kilns, that are now competing with incinerators for this waste”.

Dowen added that, although the corporations that dominate waste management treat its composition as a commercial secret, it is clear that “once you take plastics and food waste out of municipal solid waste, there is not much left to burn”.

Environment department monitoring shows that, of total residual household waste in England, an estimated 53% is readily recyclable, 27% is potentially recyclable, 12% is potentially substitutable and only 8% is difficult to either recycle or substitute.

The rapid rise of waste incineration took root during the drive to emasculate local government in the 1990s, Vera Weghmann argues in a report for the European Public Service Union. Municipalities were encouraged to turn the expanding waste business over to private partners.

Incinerators require minimum feedstock to work, and local councils across the continent were tied into deliver-or-pay contracts. Countries including Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands even became dependent on waste imports.

Private waste management is an ever-heavier burden on cash-strapped local authorities. When Sheffield discovered that Veolia had been diverting recyclable waste to an incinerator, the council voted to scrap its 35-year contract with the multinational, but backed off when threatened with a high compensation claim.

Dowen of UKWIN said: “These contracts were brokered by government, and forced many local authorities into financial difficulties.” Municipalities, alarmed at the prospect of failing to meet targets for reducing waste deliveries to landfill, were seduced into signing the onerous contracts.

In 2028 fossil-fuel-origin waste (e.g. plastics) is due to be added to the Emissions Trading Scheme, and a certificate will have to be bought for each tonne burned. But waste management companies including Cory are already planning to pass that cost – totalling hundreds of millions of pounds per year across the UK – back to local authorities.

Cory’s CCS project leans heavily on state funding. Before it was granted its DCO, company spokesman Matthew Fox told an inquiry that Cory will apply for a grant under the government’s £8.35 billion Waste Industrial Carbon Capture programme. If it pre-qualified for support, Cory would then undertake further development before securing a contract award.

The Waste ICC programme would fund up to half of the capital cost of the scheme, plus some operational expenses, through a “contract-for-difference” mechanism, similar to that used to support renewable electricity generators. This would guarantee Cory an income from its sales of electricity, regardless of the market price.

Separately, Viking CCS may be eligible for state funding under the government’s CCUS support scheme.

The treatment of biogenic greenhouse gas emissions as zero-rated – an international regulatory loophole to which there is mounting opposition – means that Cory has its eye on another income stream: it can earn Greenhouse Gas Reduction credits by taking out of the atmosphere emissions produced by burning waste that starts out as biological matter (mostly, wood, paper and food waste).

Cory’s Riverside incinerator. 
Photo: Ross.Brown.Cory / Creative Commons

In emissions trading markets, Cory will be able to sell these credits to companies that need them to swap for fossil-fuel-origin emissions of their own – allowing both sides of the trade to provide more greenwash to their PR departments.

Cory did not respond to a request to comment on the issues raised here. Nor did Viking CCS.

In conclusion: extravagant government funding for fitting CCS to waste incinerators is a microcosm of the disastrous, corporate-driven global heating disaster.

Just think about it. Consumer goods manufacturers, food processors and supermarket chains generate mountains of single-use plastic, much of it unnecessary by any standard. In the UK, about 100 billion pieces end up as waste each year. On top of that is food waste: £17 billion worth of it each year, in the UK.

Instead of cutting down the waste mountain, corporations focus on undermining attempts to mandate reusable packaging. McDonald’s, having loudly promised in 2021 to stop making 1 billion plastic toys per year, last year said it will go back to “durable” plastic toys with Happy Meals.

Government, instead of standing up to climate-trashing sabotage and further reducing the flow of waste, piles obligations on cash-strapped local government to dispose of it.

Reuse, sorting and recycling are downgraded, whatever the government’s empty commitment to the “waste hierarchy” says. Instead, those horrible piles of plastic are fed into incinerators – whose corporate owners claim to be “green” and even “zero carbon”, on the basis of plans, funded by the state rather than their shareholders, to fit carbon capture technology that does not work as efficiently as they claim.

Then, promises are made to ship some of these captured greenhouses gases, that need never have been generated in the first place, to Yorkshire, to be piped under the North Sea.

It is insane, but that is not all it is: the whole process is guided by the twisted, society-destroying logic of capital, which prioritises corporate profits above all. Each challenge to a part of that logic will work most powerfully as part of a challenge to the whole.

Simon Pirani, 3 March 2026

==

Cory’s business model

If Cory’s planned carbon capture project goes ahead then, according to the information the company has made public, it could look like this:

πŸ”΄ Each year, about 1.5 million tonnes of waste could be burned (750,000 to 850,000 tonnes from the Riverside 1 incinerator, judging by its throughput in recent years, and 650,000 tonnes from the new Riverside 2 incinerator.)[1]

πŸ”΄ From each 1.5 million tonnes of waste, we might expect 1.75 million tonnes of carbon dioxide to go into the atmosphere. Of the 1.75 million tonnes, about 850,000 tonnes would come from burning fossil-origin waste, including plastics, and about 900,000 tonnes from burning waste produced from biological material, including wood, paper and cardboard (biogenic waste).[2] This 900,000 tonnes would be treated as “zero carbon” by most methods for counting emissions, because when new trees and other plants are grown, carbon is removed from the atmosphere.

πŸ”΄ Most of the carbon dioxide emissions would be captured, compressed and liquefied. The liquid carbon dioxide would be transported by ship to Yorkshire, and buried by Viking CCS in an exhausted oil field under the North Sea. Cory reckons that the transportation and storage would put an extra 17,600 tonnes/year of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) into the atmosphere.[3]

πŸ”΄ The combustion of the waste would drive turbines to produce about 1230 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity per year. Of these, 127 GWh might be used to run the incinerators.[4] Anything between 369 GWh and 615 GWh (that is, 30-50%) could be needed to power the capture, compression and liquefaction of carbon, leaving between 488 GWh and 734 GWh to be exported to the grid. Estimates of the energy cost of capture, compression and liquefaction of CO2 at a waste-to-energy plant range from 30% to 50% of the electricity available.[5]

πŸ”΄Assuming (generously) that the electricity is supplied uniformly throughout the year, that’s a 56-84 MW power plant, perhaps one fifth of the size of a small-ish gas-fired plant. It’s about enough electricity to power between 175,000 and 262,000 homes – no more than 70%, and quite possibly less than half, of the 371,000 that Cory claims.[6]

πŸ”΄ Some energy could be captured in the form of heat, and added to a heat transfer system to households.

πŸ”΄ Money-wise, Cory’s incinerators will continue to receive revenue for the electricity generated, plus waste management fees (gate fees) – i.e. fees for accepting waste – paid under contracts by local authorities. The industry norm is that these contracts either require minimum volumes of waste to be delivered and fees paid by the local authority for any shortfall, or they specify a fixed capacity that will be reserved for the authority.

πŸ”΄ Cory envisages that much of the capital investment, and operating expenses, for carbon capture and storage will be funded by the government, under the Waste Industrial Carbon Capture Business Model.[7] The government intends to pay out such subsidies in the form of “contracts for difference”.[8]

πŸ”΄ In 2028 the government intends to add waste incineration to the emissions trading scheme (ETS), under which companies will have to pay the government for certificates to cover each tonne of fossil-origin carbon dioxide that they pump into the atmosphere. Cory has assured its shareholders that they need not worry: the company has already been “ensuring contracts include change-of-law provisions, and build ETS liabilities into pricing strategies” – in other words, charges for greenhouse gas emissions will be passed back to local authorities.[9]

πŸ”΄ For the proportion of waste burned that counts as biogenic, and is captured, Cory will receive Greenhouse Gas Reduction credits. As the company’s representative explained to a planning enquiry, these can be “sold to third party purchasers such as international tech companies, banks, or oil and gas majors, for the purposes of carbon offsetting”.[10]

References

[1] Cory says on its web site that the two plants together will be able to process more than 1.5 million tonnes of waste per year

[2] In its environmental statement, Cory forecasts that 95% of the CO2 emissions would amount to 1,651,780 tCO2 – so 100% would be 1,738,716 tCO2. It forecasts that 49% of the emissions would be from fossil sources. I have rounded the numbers for convenience. In 2017, Cory has reported the biogenic proportion of the waste at its plants as 54.1% (Cory Riverside Energy, A Carbon Case (2017), page 16). A report from the UN Environment Programme estimated that waste-to-energy plants typically emit 1000-1100 kg of emissions when 1000 kg of waste is burned. (UNEP, Waste to Energy: considerations for informed decision-making (2019), page 40.) A report by researchers working the EU estimated the emissions at 700-1700 kg per 1000 kg of waste burned (Best Available Techniques Reference Document for Waste Incineration (JRC Science for Policy Report), see page 152)

[3] Cory Environmental Statement: 6.1. Chapter 13. Greenhouse Gases. March 2024, pages 42-43

[4] This is based on Cory’s published figures for 2015, when 700,138 tonnes of waste went into the Riverside plant, and it generated 574.4 GWh, of which 59.2 GWh was used on site and 515.2 GWh exported. See Cory Riverside Energy: A Carbon Case (2017), page 13

[5] A review by the IEA Technology Collaboration programme concluded that the net electricity production of incinerators with CCS “would be almost halved due to the carbon capture energy requirement”. In 2021, environmental engineers estimated that adding CCS to the Amager Bakke incinerator in Copenhagen, would reduce electricity output from 615kWh per tonne of waste burned to 310kWh, while heat output would increase from 9.1 GJ to 9.5GJ. The incinerator’s owners applied for national government funding to add CCS equipment and that was rejected. A demonstration-scale project is now in progress at the plant. Researchers point out that the energy cost of CCS on incinerators will differ according to factors including the respective use of electricity and heat, the type of amine solvents used, and the type of construction of the plant

[6] I have assumed 2800 kWh per year per home, the same number that Cory uses in its A Carbon Case document

[7] Written summary of the applicant’s oral submissions at compulsory acquisition hearing 2 (EN010128), February 2025

[8] “Subsidy scheme details. The Industrial Carbon Capture Business Model”, Gov.UK

[9] Cory Topco 2024 Annual Report, page 37

[10] Written summary of the applicant’s oral submissions at compulsory acquisition hearing 2 (EN010128), February 2025

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Carbon Capture Project Greenwashes Waste Incinerator Expansion

People And Nature ☭ A guest post by Bob Myers.
25-September-2025

An amazing meeting of mineworkers and environmentalists from across the former Yugoslavia was held on 12-14 September in the small mining town of Breza.

We came together on a playing field, beside a derelict Olympic-size open air swimming pool, built by local miners.
The Gacko coal mine in Bosnia. Photo by Julian Nyca / Creative Commons

Breza is about half an hour’s drive from the Bosnian capital, Sarajevo. The swimming pool, built after the second world war and now in decay, is a vivid symbol that hangs over our meeting.

On the pool’s railings hung a large banner, painted by young people the night before, welcoming everyone to this “Zbor – for miners, land and water”. A Zbor has its origins in open-air village collective meetings way back. After the second world war, this form of assembly became part of the new society of Yugoslavia.

There were about 80 people at this Zbor – mineworkers’ union representatives from Bosnia, (including the region controlled by Serb nationalists); from Serbia, Montenegro and Slovenia; a woman activist from the shop workers’ union; and the president of an independent trade union in Croatia.

Then there were people from communities across ex-Yugoslavia who in one way or another are trying to protect their environment from degradation by extractive industries. Among them, young people from Serbia who have been on the streets almost non-stop for nearly a year, following the collapse of a newly Chinese built railway station which killed many people, who are fighting to get rid of the corrupt politicians who oversaw this disaster.

There were people from Germany, Belgium and Denmark, mostly involved in environmental campaigns. And from the UK there were two ex-miners, sent by the Durham Mineworkers Association that has long had solidarity contacts with the miners in Bosnia. And me, one of the organisers of solidarity food convoys from the UK to the Bosnian mining communities during the war of 1992-95.

The mix of men to women was roughly fifty-fifty. The ages are from young students to pensioners.

The Zbor lasted three days, and I have written down a selection of important points below. We foreigners relied on a translator, so I surely missed things. But first, here is my picture of the region, in case you are not familiar with it. Without this, the significance of the Zbor will be lost.

The background

During the second world war, this whole region was occupied by the Nazis, who ruled with collaborators from the local bourgeoisie. There was resistance from different groups but it was the partisans, working class and peasant fighters, who managed to inflict the heaviest losses on the occupiers. The mining town of Tuzla in northern Bosnia, and the surrounding region, were liberated in 1943 – the first territory in Europe freed from Nazi occupation.

The partisans were heavily influenced and led by the Communist Party and this popular anti-fascist force defined the character of post-war Yugoslavia. This society was very different from the rest of eastern Europe. Socialism here came about through this liberation movement, not on the bayonets of the Red Army, as in Poland or Hungary.

The post war history of Yugoslavia was in part a product of two conflicting tendencies. On one hand the influence of the workers, who tried to put their stamp on the society they had created, and on the other hand a political elite heavily influenced by the Stalinist Soviet Union, with a top down idea of “socialism”.

The industries were owned by the people employed in them, not state property as in the Soviet Union. So in theory there was workers’ control. But in practice the Communist Party’s top-down politics rendered this control meaningless. Shortly after the second world war the government of Josip Broz Tito, the partisan leader, had declared Yugoslavia to be a one-party state, something that was opposed by many militant socialist workers. Hundreds of these people were jailed for demanding workers’ democracy.

The Yugoslavia created by the partisans was a federation of republics – Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia Herzegovina and Macedonia, all with their own parliaments. Later two autonomous regions were created with similar status to the republics. The tension between the society the workers tried to create, and the one presided over by top down politicians, manifested itself in questions of nationality, ethnicity and religion. In many urban areas the populations became more and more ethnically mixed, as people sought work in new industries and moved to different republics, worked together and intermarried. Large numbers of people came to regard themselves simply as Yugoslavs, rather than Serb or Croat, and religion became less important.

But at the level of the political elite nationalist tendencies never went away. Following Tito’s death in 1985 there was a severe slump, mirroring the economic troubles all across the Soviet bloc. As workers’ conditions in Yugoslavia deteriorated, the political elites began to play nationalist cards to deflect criticism of themselves. The country was shaken by crisis: unpaid wages, bankrupt industries, massive workers’ protests.

In the midst of this the Serbian elite, who formed the major part of the Yugoslav army high command, set about trying to turn the Yugoslavia federation into a Greater Serbia. The political elites of the other republics opposed this by raising their own nationalist flags. Workers, who in many cases had been trying to breathe life into their workers’ control over the factories in order to solve the economic problems, were silenced by war.

The break-up of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s – which was widely presented simply as an orgy of ethnic violence – had at its centre the question of who controls the property, the factories, the land and resources.

And this was the main question at our Zbor.

The 1995 Dayton agreement, overseen by the US and the EU, ended the fighting in Bosnia, but set up a form of government that gave control to the nationalists and ethnic cleansers. The country is now rated as one of the most corrupt in the world. As the local politicians enrich themselves in any way they can, the EU oversees the international plunder of Bosnia’s resources.

The Breza Zbor

The sessions were mostly facilitated by young women – one the daughter of a local miner, another the daughter of a steel worker from a nearby town, another a student from Serbia. They conducted the meeting with such skill that everyone was able to speak freely and ask questions – a very democratic process.

The president of the Breza municipality welcomed us all and explained that the so-called “green transition” is affecting everyone in Bosnia. The Breza mine was threatened with closure, but there was complete lack of consultation with workers, and complete secrecy about finances.

The two ex-miners from the UK spoke about their experiences. One of them outlined the battle between the UK miners and the Thatcher government leading to their defeat in the year-long strike of 1984-85. The other spoke of the results of this defeat, the damage done to mining communities and the impact this had on the rest of the trade union movement and on society for years afterwards.

One of the organisers of the Zbor then outlined its main aim: to oppose any unjust transition. During the war the government had nationalised all industry in order to privatise it. So the workers had been robbed of their own property. The new owners of industry had looted anything of value and virtually destroyed anything the war had not already destroyed. Now under the guise of “green transition” a new colonial plunder is taking place. Some of the people involved in this new round of theft are the same people aiming to steal Palestinian land in Gaza.

The miners’ union president from Zenica said all the state-owned mines were now earmarked for closure. But this was decided by people who hold power, not the miners or the public. The mines supply cheap electricity to the people. If there is to be a transition, it has to be in accordance with the needs of the miners and the public.

Another miner said: We are a poor country. There is no money to finance a transition in which workers are retrained and re-employed. We do need less polluting power sources, but we have 250 years’ supply of coal. A green transition is possible, but not the way the EU and our politicians are trying to impose it.

A man from Mount Ozren in Republika Srpska (the part of Bosnia under Serb nationalist control) described the way that his mountain community had become aware of foreign prospectors surveying their land, starting to make roads and bringing in drilling equipment. When asked what they were doing, they gave bullshit answers. Then the locals were asked if they wanted to sell their land, used for agricultural purposes. It turns out there is a plan to create a cobalt and nickel mine. So the locals held a Zbor. For four years they fought the Australian mining company and, thanks to the community’s unity, prevented the development of the mine.

The president of the metal miners’ union of Republika Srpska said that the company he worked for employed 5500 workers before the war. Now there are only 500. When they were privatised, the new owner simply looted the company and vanished. A new investor came and made promises of better conditions – all bullshit. The government closed its eyes to everything as they were getting a share of the loot. He said he respects the eco actions, but that closing mines is stopping people getting work. So we need to have this discussion.

A miner from Montenegro: We are earmarked for closure but this will cause economic crisis. The population will have to pay higher electricity bills for power coming from Italy. Privatisation led to massive factory closures and now they say our mine must shut. They promise compensation, but we know we will be left with nothing.

The president of the Serbian miners’ union outlined the expansion of metal mining by Chinese companies in Serbia. They do not respect workers’ rights and they are destroying the environment. It’s the same all across Yugoslavia. We worry about our future and the environment. Collective ownership has been destroyed. Emigration is growing due to the loss of jobs. The government are the crooks. They propose a “green transition” but without any input from the miners. Private finance is opening new open cast mines, for lithium in particular, but people don’t have any say in any of this. The conditions of work are now terrible.

President of the Slovenian miners’ union: We can only mitigate damage to the environment if miners are involved in developing plans. The EU is pushing to shut all our mines by 2043. Deloitte, the accountancy firm, was paid by our government to produce, a plan and they said close everything by 2038. Our government then said, close everything by 2033. There is no “just” transition if you take away jobs from the miners and take away their pride. I am glad to have this discussion with the environmentalists.

The president of the Kreka miners’ union (the biggest remaining mine in Tuzla): Our mines were opened in 1880 and their purpose was clear to everyone. Now no-one has any idea why they are closing. Before the war we had 100,000 miners in Bosnia; now there are only 5,000. From the experiences we are hearing about here, we have to work out what to do. There will be no financial support for miners. The government knows they are selling the people out. Without energy independence we are screwed. […] There are vast reserves of coal that could be exploited without pollution but our academics are silent and just agree with whatever the government says. The government says it has a new plan but I am the president of the miners’ union in the biggest mine and I know nothing about this plan.

A woman from an agricultural community: My livelihood has been taken away by a foreign mining company. I support the miners and their fight for jobs. The “green transition” is just the language of foreign investors and a corrupt government. Three times the government has changed the mineral mining laws to make it easier for foreign capital to exploit our resources. Local communities have no say, and see the loss of their land and the destruction of the environment. We have to fight to take control of our own resources. They are only interested in extracting profit.

A Portuguese environmentalist spoke about a rural community’s fight against a lithium mine which threatened to destroy their sustainable agricultural economy. So in the name of “green transition”, which says lithium is needed, local life will be destroyed. Political leaders divide us and we are only spectators in this devastation. Corruption is their biggest asset. We have to organise ourselves. But for four years the local community has successfully fought off the mining company.

A Bosnian worker: The war made so many refugees, and now, for the sake of foreign profit, there is a new wave of refugees. We are all united by common problems and it is the same companies that are causing them.

The Breza miners’ union president: We don’t employ enough workers to run the mine properly. We have outdated equipment. We receive a low price for our coal from the electricity generators. They, the government, have ruined the mine. For four years we have listened to them saying the mine must close. We have gone from 1290 miners to 700. We have had no new equipment since 2014. Lots of our men are old and cannot be retrained. But we are the most organised union and we will keep fighting.

A Serbian speaker reported on the Rio Tinto Zinc lithium mine that has caused huge environmental damage. One of the main uses of lithium is for military purposes, so under the name of “green transition”, the environment is being destroyed, in order to produce weapons for further destruction. They say lithium is critical: it’s not. Air and water are critical, and these meglomaniac projects are destroying both.

A woman from the Bosnian shop workers union: This “green transition” affects us all, and we will work with the miners’ union. In the name of “green transition”, we lose jobs to self-service checkouts. This “transition” is just the new form of privatisation, in which they devalue whatever we have and destroy workers’ rights. This is why I am here. We are a lost cause if we fight alone.

A woman described how a proposed hydroelectric power plant near her village was presented as “green energy”. But people knew from previous experience that it would only bring damage to the community. So local women blocked a bridge needed for access. They were attacked by special police forces. Many women got prison sentences. All we were doing was protecting our drinking water supply. Who gave the orders for the police attack? Despite the attacks, the women blocked the bridge for 500 days and eventually the scheme was scrapped. We can stop their plans.

A man told how, a year ago, 19 people had been killed in his village. There were heavy floods, but the deaths were caused by an avalanche from an illegal rock crushing plant above the village. People had protested about the plant, but every level of government had turned a blind eye. This was a governmental crime.

A Serbian speaker talked about the Sloboda (Freedom) factory, that produces shells that are sold to Israel.[1] We have multi-national colonialism, and government supports this. People close to government get licences for “green transition”. China is extracting more and more, and local governments take bribes to facilitate this

A woman
complained about the absence of scientists and academics at the meeting. (This point was repeated by many other speakers.) The “experts” are all bought by the looters. They do not speak out about colonial plunder; instead they collaborate with the robbers.

The president of the Kreka miners’ union: I’ve learned a lot from this meeting. God save us from the EU. We see even in rich countries how hard it is for workers to find a way to transition without it affecting them badly. I want to cooperate with people from the west. We need a form of transition that doesn’t harm us. None of us can have any confidence in our institutions anymore.

A woman from Slovenia said transition is inevitable. Miners will have to find other work but all changes have to be made by local communities not by foreign investors.

The president of the Slovenian miners’ union. Our government tried to break up our union. They set up their own one, but we resisted, and 80% of miners are still in our union – but the government refuses to listen to us. They said the mines must shut by 2030; then they changed the law to close the pit straight away. We had meetings with our comrades in Bosnia and many came to support our demonstrations in Ljubljana. We need to get our arguments into the media. Older people still watch TV, not Youtube. We we must win over the young people too. All this is going to affect them the most.

An older man who has been campaigning against environmental destruction said we can win battles if we win public support. We have stopped them building any more hydro dams in Bosnia.

A Croatian independent union official spoke of unions’ militancy in winning many strikes. Workers in a military tank repair facility occupied the plant and threatened to drive the tanks to the ministry of defence. They got a quick settlement. Our government and media always say we need a social dialogue about everything. No – we need a social rebellion. But we need to join international organisations. We have so little resources we need help. We can work with NGOs, they have many young educated people – but they are always dependent for money on the people in power and that determines their agenda. We don’t want top-down organisations: we have to build our own strength. People looked to the Social Democrats, but we have members working in their offices and we know they are full of the same bullshit as the other politicians. We have to learn how and when to fight. We brought a factory to a halt just by pulling nine crane drivers out on strike. We have to hit them strategically.

The Breza Zbor. Photo by Bob Myers

The Montenegro miners’ union president. We do not produce enough food or energy in our own country. We are transitioning into slavery. Miners must care about the environment: we are living in a period of ecological destruction. Our mines are scheduled to close by 2041, but the end is probably coming sooner. It will be a disaster. There is no plan for this transition. If we were in charge, we could clean up the environment and retrain the workers.

A Bosnian environmentalist told how, even though the state coal mines are all marked for closure, licenses are being issued for new private mines in areas that were protected like national parks. This protection has vanished. All our corporations have been sold to foreign investors. They are rushing to plunder our underground resources. But for society the resources above ground – air, water, nature – are far more valuable both to us and future generations. We are losing resources quicker than in Africa and we get less compensation than anywhere in the world.

These translated quotes are just a small extract from two long days of discussion, but I hope they give you a feel for the atmosphere. And there were many useful one-to-one discussions during the great meals brought to our Zbor by a local restaurant. I was really excited to learn from the Kreka miner that he hopes to organise a commemoration of the Husina Miners Rebellion of 1920, a pivotal moment in the development of the Yugoslav workers’ movement – something I wrote a pamphlet about 30 years ago.

After the second day session ended, the head of a mine shift, responsible for a large number of workers, took us on a walk through the town to the pit, where we went in to look at the pithead equipment. We also visited an archeological site: the remains of a 10th-century Illyrian basilica. In the evening we had an open air concert by the town orchestra, mostly young people. The orchestra’s leader told us that its history was entwined with the history of the miners and of the rights of people of all ethnicities to live together.

On the third day, discussion focused on what unites everyone, and a call to go out from the meeting. The decisions were posted on the Zbor’s instagram account here, and are included below.

Some reflections

Two years ago, I read an online article by a Bosnian woman, urging the environmental movement in the country to support a miners’ strike – a seemingly contradictory thing, since the miners are producing highly polluting coal.

Her argument was simple: the miners are the only remaining organised workforce in the country following the mass destruction of industry via privatisation and looting. If the environmental movement is to succeed, it has to win society to its side and the miners are the only remnant of an organised working class. I wrote to her and stayed in contact.

This Zbor was very much in line with her perspectives. But on my way to Bosnia, I had some misgivings. I come from a trade union and socialist background, but in recent years I have attended Extinction Rebellion demonstrations and talked with young environmental activists from different campaigns in the UK – and, to be honest, I usually felt we were talking a different language. I felt they had no sense of class, a belief that bigger and bigger actions could force the powers that be to change their evil ways – and little understanding of the position of workers in industries like coal or oil.

Indeed at the Breza Zbor, a German woman told how she and others had protested outside a new German open-cast mine for two years without any support from the workers within: two opposing factions.

So I was worried: how would the Zbor go? How would the miners and the environmentalists interact, and above all would the miners’ voices be heard? I had memories of events in the Bosnian mining town of Tuzla in 2014 when huge demonstrations rocked the town. Young professional people set up a “plenum” supposedly to let the demonstrators have a say in the running of the town. But the plenum sessions mostly concentrated on matters of laws, representation, institutions etc.

Outside the meetings workers could be heard saying their problems of unemployment and poverty were not being discussed. The plenums changed nothing. Would this Zbor allow the workers’ voices to be heard?

I think you can judge from the extracts I have given that they certainly were. The miners stamped their mark on the meeting from the word go, and throughout the meeting you could sense everyone listening and thinking about everything that was said.

I think several factors made this possible. Above all, the common enemy is so easily recognised. Foreign capital is funding a colonial robbery, and this is being encouraged and facilitated by every level of government and the EU who really oversee the Bosnian administration. So the rural worker whose land is stolen by a Chinese mining company and the coal miner facing unemployment know they face the same antagonist – capital.

Secondly, the environmental campaigners across Yugoslavia are mostly people from the local communities affected by new projects. They have the same sense of community as the miners and they are all workers.

Thirdly, and harder to explain to someone not familiar with Yugoslavia, the country’s social and political past comes out in a new way. The old political elite of Tito’s Yugoslavia are dead or converted into new gangsters. This leaves the old social traditions to rise again in a new, unfettered way. Everything that was progressive about the partisans and the character they gave to the newly formed “socialist” federation finds a new life, a new outlet.

In a short space of time people have witnessed the government theft of their property (through nationalisation) and then the plunder of the social wealth (through privatisation). People are facing a ruinous, alien production system, that only yesterday belonged to them. Now they want to reassert their control over their workplaces and their lives in general – and every political party and the EU is standing in their way.

It is difficult to summarise the results of the Zbor. I’m sure Artificial Intelligence could come up with a pithy 10-point resume – but what AI could not do is capture the excitement, the moral uplift that I think most people felt.

I got to know Bosnia in the midst of a hideous war, where ethnic cleansing and nationalism seemed overwhelming. But here were workers from across all the divides – national, ethnic and religious – sitting down together to discuss common problems. I spoke to many of the young people there and I think all of them declared themselves as Yugoslavs, wanting to restore the unity of the people that the partisan struggle had created.

This was a small meeting, but its significance is enormous. When we organised our solidarity convoys of food for the Tuzla miners during the war, we were not simply trying to feed starving people. We wanted to restore the idea of workers’ solidarity and internationalism. At that time, in the aftermath of the break up of Yugoslavia and the exhaustion of war, few people on the ground were in a place to share this perspective. But at the Breza Zbor, this is what everyone was talking about.

 πŸ”΄ To contact the Zbor organisers: Instagram zbor_2025, or email zbor@systemli.org

πŸ”΄ Also about Breza: The heritage of darkness by Midhat Poturovic






[1] Serbian arms sales to Israel are outlined in this article, in Balkan Insight.

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Bosnia πŸͺΆ Unite For Mineworkers, For Land And For Water. No To Unjust Transition

Anthony McIntyre  ☠ Martin McAllister came into Crumlin Road prison in 1974. 

Earlier the same year had had escaped from Portlaoise Prison after 19 IRA prisoners blasted the walls and dispersed quickly beyond the long arm of Paddy Cooney's rule of law enforcement. Housed in the Crum at the time we were envious of their success.

Martin's freedom was to be short lived. Six weeks after his escape he was shot and captured during a gun battle with the British Army in South Armagh from where he hailed. After a spell in Musgrave Park Military Hospital he was shunted off to join us within the gloomy architecture of the Crum. As well as being an accomplished IRA volunteer Martin was also a talented sessions musician. He could strum both a rifle trigger and a guitar string. 

After the burning of Long Kesh in October of 1974 and the subsequent riot in the Crum, Martin embarked on a hunger strike and later a hunger and thirst strike in a push back against harsh measures introduced by the jail governor who would go on to manage the H Blocks during the blanket protest and hunger strikes. 

Sentenced to ten years, Martin was moved to the cages of Long Kesh. On the forced departure of the then camp O/C, Brendan Hughes in January 1978 - on trumped up charges - to the H Blocks where he went on to lead the Blanket protest, Martin assumed the command of the republican prisoners in the cages. For the six months that I spent under his leadership before I too ended up in the H Blocks, he was a capable and firm O/C who got the job done.

He left the Kesh in 1979 on completion of his sentence and, if memory is not deceiving me, he was extradited to Dublin to face trial for the Portlaoise escape. I hadn't seen him for years but when in the RVH about 15 years ago for a minor operation, on discovering he was in the same complex I strolled down to his ward and paid him a visit. 

In recent years Martin took to campaigning on environmental issues, protecting, as he saw it, the folk of South Armagh and beyond from harm.  Given the serious injuries he had sustained from a body external to the community it was particularly galling to learn that he had again been badly hurt, this time by someone internal to the community. His assailant has been described in the media as a millionaire suspected of being a fuel smuggler. The attack left him "with life-changing injuries, including impaired eyesight and a haematoma on his brain." He also sustained numerous broken bones in his facial region. After beating him unconscious in front of his wife, his assailant "kicked, punched and repeatedly slammed a car door on the hands of his victim, who was unable to defend himself." 

One of the issues Martin had campaigned against was the wash from dodgy diesel polluting the environment. He said he felt the reason behind the attack on him was because he “stood against the dumping of diesel sludge”. In his evidence to a Dublin court he claimed he was assaulted because he had challenged his assailment Eugene Hanratty Snr, about allegations of diesel sludge dumping, and that in 2010 he had raised the issue in Crossmaglen with then-PSNI chief constable, Matt Baggott, telling the court that this made him "very unpopular with certain people". He explained:

I am lucky to be alive. If my wife Mary hadn’t been with me that day, which she wouldn’t usually be, I don’t think I would have survived. He opened the car door and began to hit me over the head with something. I passed out ... Then he dragged me from the car and I came around briefly. He was hitting me with his fists and then gave me what I can only describe as a penalty kick to the head before I passed out again. He then proceeded to dance on my hands and arms ... I remember very little but I am still living with the medical consequences to this day. Witnessing the attack had a big impact on my wife Mary also.”

After a lengthy judicial process, frequently disrupted, his attacker was jailed for four years. Martin welcomed the verdict saying he had at last received justice. 

While never a cheerleader for people going to jail - a bias on my part - it would be impossible to keep a straight face while justifying a non-custodial sentence. Those seeking to protect the environment from the rich and their pollution, are themselves in need of protection from brutality.

 ⏩ Follow on Twitter @AnthonyMcIntyre

Justice Delayed But Not Denied

Noel Byrne ✒ My six grandchildren were born between 2006 and 2018.

If I am fortunate enough for my genes to continue in a diluted form through two more generations, my great great grandchildren will be living around the beginning of the next century. What sort of a world will they be born into? Will they be looking back and questioning how this generation destroyed the planet, their home? Will they be asking who stole their future?

When the historians at the beginning of the next century look back they will see that this generation was the first generation to become aware of the damage they were doing to the planet, and the fact that we ignored that knowledge. We stole the future!

Future generations must be protected, they are completely disadvantaged because they have no control over the decisions this generation makes which will eventually impact their lives. Their very existence may in fact be threatened.

We presently have the power to alter the human genome and to do so may completely change future generations without either their knowledge or consent. Their choices will be restricted by the decisions of their predecessors.

The destiny future generations face will be the result of choices made in the past.

In any civilized society we protect the incompetent and the infirm and ensure they are protected from those who might take advantage of them and either advertently or inadvertently exploit them. Future generations must also be protected in a similar manner. They need a proxy or an advocate for their cause.

Such an advocate would need to be done at a global level, such as by the United Nations.

We may be unable as a national group to lobby the government, but we can both as individual Humanist’s and as local groups lobby and canvass for the changes necessary to preserve the planet for future generations. We as Humanists have a responsibility to the unborn future generations. Future generations are not just an abstract concept. Future generations are real people just not yet born. Because they are unable to vote or lobby today or influence present policy-making, so it is crucially important for us to understand their needs. We must somehow heed the voices of the future generations. Among the things we might be able to do individually is to prevent any further deterioration of the environment, and where possible restore ecological balances and we also need to try and prevent any further destruction of the planets biological diversity.

Presently air, land and sea are being polluted. There is major planetary degradation. Population is increasing at an unsustainable rate, the arms trade is growing, nuclear weapons are being stored, species are becoming extinct on a daily basis, the balance of the biosphere and the ecosystem are being altered, consumerism is becoming more rampant and we are aware of all this. We get reports and information daily on the damage we are doing to ourselves and our planet and yet we continue. Why?

For a century now, science and technology have been used for personal, national and regional profit to the detriment of the planet, of many in society and to the unborn generations. It is a strange irony that science and technology, rather than liberating humanity, are now the greatest threat to our quality of life and that of future generations. Both laissez-faire capitalism and technology are gradually destroying us and the future generations. Neither are sustainable or equitable. As the most advanced terrestrial life form we have now become the agents of change on the planet. We now control evolution and have usurped nature. It needs however to be an ethical evolution. We have become very smart technologically, but not very wise.

We are aware today of the interrelatedness and interdependedness of reality and that nothing exists in isolation. Each decision, policy and action we take has far-reaching consequences that will be passed on to posterity. That fact should be foremost in each decision made, whether at a personal or governmental level.

The Earth’s resources are limited. They belong to all generations and species. No species, country or generation has an exclusive right to the Earth’s natural resources. To date they have been passed down generation by generation. We have grossly exploited them. We must stop. We have an obligation and a responsibility to pass them on to posterity in a good and if possible enhanced condition. With our wonderful science and technology we must surely have the potential to enhance rather than degrade the planet. We must stop our greed and regulate our consumption to share the planetary resources with future generations.

The choices our generation is making will determine the destiny of the future generations. Our deeds may in fact decide how many future generations there will be. Accordingly we need to be very careful of the choices we make and be in awe and aware of their potential consequences. We do not want to hand down a legacy of despair to future generations. 

⏩ Noel Byrne is a retired Civil Servant and a Humanist, with a principal interest in Philosophy, and a particular interest in Ethics and Morality.

My Great Great Grandchildren

People And Nature ✒ An 8-minute video from the Sheffield Festival of Debate.


Harpreet Kaur Paul πŸ‘« Tom Baxter πŸ‘¬ Simon Pirani talk about whether hydrogen can play a part in the transition away from fossil fuels, and why it is being pushed by companies who want to slow that transition down.

Hydrogen: Green Gas or Greenwash? - YouTube

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Hydrogen ➖ Green Gas Or Greenwash?

Simon Pirani As the UK prepares to host international climate negotiations in November, London’s local authority is pressing ahead with a £2 billion-plus climate-trashing tunnel project that is incompatible with decarbonisation.


The Greater London Authority’s Silvertown Tunnel, together with the government’s £27 billion motorway upgrade scheme, makes a mockery of the UK’s claim to be “leading the way” on tackling climate change.

The tunnel project also shows that climate hypocrisy is bipartisan: it’s the biggest spending decision this decade by Labour’s most powerful elected official, London mayor Sadiq Khan. Labour, like the Tories, talks “green” – while piling up the most frightful problems for our grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

Anti-tunnel demonstrators in Greenwich, September 2019

The tunnel is deeply unpopular locally. The long list of opponents includes four local Labour MPs, four Labour-controlled local councils, eight Constituency Labour parties and 20 Labour branches, the Greens and Liberal Democrats in London, dozens of community, trade union and environmental organisations, groups of doctors and teachers, and a long list of researchers of climate science, air pollution and transport policy.

The tunnel, a terrible idea long before Covid-19, looks even worse now: long-term transport projections are being rewritten and Transport for London desperately needs financial and management resources for other things. But the Mayor and other GLA officials have resisted calls for a review tooth-and-nail.

Download this whole article as a PDF here.

Here are six reasons why the tunnel destroys the GLA’s claim that it takes climate change seriously.

2. Building the tunnel, even before a single vehicle went through it, would cause plenty of carbon dioxide emissions.

Transport for London has estimated that the concrete and other materials used to build the tunnel would have 82,077 tonnes of embedded CO2 (i.e. CO2 emitted during the manufacture of those materials). That’s roughly what a Boeing 737-400 would produce in 7000 trips of 900+ kilometres.

Another Transport for London report put the embedded CO2 at 108,961 tonnes, and emissions during construction (including the removal and transportation of 42.5 million tonnes of waste) at another 44,318 tonnes. (See endnote for sources.) But no complete life-cycle analysis has been done. And no account taken of the construction of auxiliary roads, lorry parks and other infrastructure.

Moreover, all these emissions would only be a small part of the tunnel’s climate impact. Far greater damage would be done by emissions from the extra traffic produced by the expansion of the road network.

2. More roads produce more traffic – and this tunnel would too. And that would mean more CO2 emissions, when the climate emergency requires that they be cut, fast.

It’s not only common sense that building more roads produces more traffic, it has also been proven by decades of transport research, including reports commissioned by the UK government in 1994, 1998 and 2018.

The GLA claims, falsely, that a road toll on the Silvertown tunnel, and the Blackwall tunnel nearby, would prevent extra traffic. The Stop the Silvertown Tunnel Coalition has produced abundant evidence (e.g. in a recent letter and in this report) that it would not. A toll on the next crossing down the Thames, at Dartford, has not stopped traffic far exceeding the planned capacity.

What counts, after all, is not the number of cars using a particular stretch of road, but the inexorable increase in the number of cars – and in this case, HGVs – provided for by the inexorable expansion of the road network.

The modelling conducted for the tunnel project perversely minimised the induced traffic effect – in particular, by assuming that the total number of trips across the Thames would not be changed by a new tunnel. The Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition sounded the alarm on that, most recently, to the London Assembly oversight committee in February. (See 9 February letter here.) No answer from them, yet.

The GLA’s plans to tame traffic lag behind the UK government’s plans, which in turn lag behind what is needed, Jaise Kuriakose of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research explained on a recent webinar about the tunnel. (Watch here, starting at 12 minutes).

The level of carbon emissions allowed in the GLA’s pathway “exceeds that in the UK government net-zero pathway, let alone a Paris-compliant target”, Kuriakose said.

Lots of research shows that demand reduction – in this case, less transport – is important for near-term reductions in emissions, because the new technologies [e.g. electric vehicles] will take time to implement.

Joanna Haigh, Distinguished Research Fellow at Imperial College London, also spoke at the webinar, pointing out that while UK emissions as a whole have fallen over the last 30 years, those from transport have gone up.

National and local governments are key determinants of whether people choose to drive or to use public transport, she said. “If government and local authorities make it easier for people to go on public transport, that is what they will do.”

3. Underlying the transport problem is a climate policy problem. The GLA climate targets fall far short of what is needed to tackle dangerous global warming. While the climate emergency requires actions above and beyond those targets, the tunnel would go in the opposite direction.

The carbon budgets (i.e. the amounts of carbon that can be pumped into the atmosphere) that the GLA allows itself are far greater than the ones worked out by the Tyndall Centre, with a view to London contributing to the 1.5 degree target. The Tyndall calculations are part of a project to help UK local authorities with decarbonisation.

The yawning gap between what the Tyndall Centre scientists say is needed, and what the GLA is aiming at – in trajectories published in 2018, in the Zero Carbon London document – is shown on this graph, put together for the Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition.

The Tyndall Centre’s carbon budgets imply that emissions in London need to fall by about 12% per year during the 2020s. The GLA is only aiming at 5%.

The third, grey, line on the graph is perhaps the most frightening of all. It shows the operational assumptions about transport sector emissions that managers in Transport for London are working with.

They expect carbon emissions from transport to fall by less than one tenth between 2012 and 2036, whether or not the Silvertown tunnel is built. (The graph, as a downloadable file with full explanatory notes, is here.)

This suggests that not only are the GLA plans on emissions far behind what is necessary, but also that no effort has been made to reconcile those plans with what transport managers are doing on the ground.

Indeed the London Transport Strategy includes an incredibly unambitious target for reducing traffic: to cut the number of vehicle-kilometres driven in the capital by just 10-15% by 2040. How does that fit with cutting carbon emissions by 5% each year (as the GLA claims to want to do), let alone by 12% (as the Tyndall centre proposes)? No-one knows.

4. This is not just about London. It’s part of a wider problem: the UK’s climate targets are a long way from what is needed.

When it comes to tackling dangerous global warming, and changing the transport system to do so, there is little difference between the Labour-controlled GLA and the Tory government. Both claim to lead the world on climate; both are investing heavily in carbon-intensive road networks.

London’s Silvertown project goes hand-in-hand with the government’s Road Investment Strategy, under which £27.4 billion will be spent on expanding the Strategic Roads Network. If this goes ahead, carbon emissions from the transport sector (currently 28% of the UK total) will most likely go up, in the next critical few years, when they need to fall sharply.

Transport for Quality of Life estimates that the investment programme “will make carbon emissions from the Strategic Roads Network go up, by about 20 million tonnes of CO2, during a period [2021-32] when we need to make them go down, by about 167 mt CO2”. The Transport Action Network is challenging the whole thing in court.

At UK level, as in London, the road-centred transport strategy – along with other relevant policies (energy sector, housing, and so on) – falls short of decarbonisation targets. At UK level, as in London, those targets themselves are way behind what climate scientists say needs to be done.

Scientists at the Tyndall centre last year published a key paper on how the UK’s and Sweden’s climate targets fall short, entitled A Factor of Two.

They argued that decarbonisation needs to move at least twice as fast as implied by the Climate Change Committee five-year carbon budgets – targets that the CCC says the government is, in any case, on course to miss.

The authoritative Climate Action Tracker team, who work the numbers out differently, also deem the UK’s targets, and current policies, as “inadequate” to meet the goal, mentioned in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level.

5. The GLA and the UK government ignore scientists’ findings that existing fossil-fuel infrastructure (including roads and tunnels) endangers the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels – a powerful reason not to build any more.

Emissions from existing fossil-fuel-burning infrastructure already “represent more than the entire [global] carbon budget that remains”, if warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees, Dan Tong and his colleagues wrote in 2019.

They were following up on a pioneering paper by Steven Davis and colleagues, published in 2010, which estimated that the infrastructure that then existed was most likely correlated with a 1.3 degree temperature rise.

In the decade since that paper was written, the sale of fossil-fuelled cars has ballooned (in rich countries especially), along with air travel, coal-fired electricity generation and all the rest. The world’s fleet of SUVs has swelled from 50 million to more than 280 million.

Both of these research papers only surveyed devices that directly emit CO2: in the transport sector, that means cars, trucks and planes. But Davis and his colleagues highlighted the role of other “substantial” infrastructure that “produces and facilitates use of these devices”, for example “factories that produce internal combustion engines, highway networks dotted with gasoline refueling stations, and oil refineries all promote the continuation of oil-based road transport emissions”.

The highway networks and tunnels so fiercely championed by UK politicians could help to take global temperature soaring past the 1.5 degree level.

6. Because climate science and transport research shouts “stop this tunnel” so loudly, the GLA have resorted to deception and distortion to justify the project.

Just as Tory cabinet ministers paved the way for mass coronavirus infections last year, while falsely claiming to “follow the science”, so both Tory and Labour politicians are adding to the global warming disaster while claiming to adhere to “Paris-compliant carbon targets”.

The London mayor, Sadiq Khan, claimed in a letter to anti-tunnel campaigners that London’s carbon reduction pathway is “in line with […] IPCC trajectories that are consistent with a limited probability of overshooting 1.5C warming”. (Details in the Stop Digging report, page 15.) The graph above shows that that is just not true.

When challenged on the detail by campaigners, London’s deputy mayor for transport, Heidi Alexander, has repeatedly claimed not only that the tunnel project is compatible with tackling climate change, but e.g. that it is essentially a public transport project, or that “the terms of the Development Consent Order ensure that traffic congestion and pollution wouldn’t get worse” if the tunnel was built. Campaigners have countered the tide of misinformation with fact sheets, available here and here.

In a recent letter to residents who oppose the tunnel, Alexander cynically compared the projected emissions from building it (about 153,000 tonnes of CO2, see point 1 above), with a possible future reduction in emissions from electrifying London’s bus fleet (500,000 tonnes of CO2 per year). This is shameful obfuscation. Firstly, because the emissions from construction would be far smaller than those from extra traffic – which Alexander and her colleagues have stubbornly refused to quantify. Second, because potential future emission cuts from electrification are no substitute for urgent cuts needed in this decade. And third, because those cuts can be achieved without building any tunnels, and will no doubt be needed anyway to bridge London’s monstrous emissions gap.

South-east London’s famed Bansheees, demonstrating
against the Silvertown tunnel, August 2020

As opposition to the tunnel has raged through the Labour party in London, Alexander has made an especially bizarre claim that the project has been “independently assessed” by the C40 alliance of city governments “to be in line with the advice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the level of carbon emission reduction required to put us on track to staying within 1.5degC global warming”.

C40 has actually done nothing of the sort. Rather, its chief executive, Mark Watts, sent a letter to mayor Khan, confirming that London’s climate policies conform with a check-list of C40 recommendations (the Climate Action Planning Framework (CAPF)).

I have sent a string of emails to Watts about this. The latest said: 

Having studied the CAPF and associated documents, we [in the Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition] presume that its purpose was to give guidance to city administrations on how to step up their efforts to decarbonise. We presume the CAPF was not intended to be used by those administrations to justify carbon-heavy projects that will defeat the decarbonisation objectives set out in documents. But this is precisely how the GLA is using the CAPF.

I’ve had no answer, from even the most menial flunky in the lavishly-funded C40 organisation. (If anyone there is reading this, please ask your boss to get in touch.)

Not only are leading Labour politicians in London trying to greenwash a climate-trashing road project, but they are also using C40 for the same purpose. They are corroding democracy, to defend the indefensible.

The conclusions are that, just as the political hostility to scientific research claimed tens of thousands of lives in the coronavirus pandemic last year, so the longer-term political resistance to the implications of climate science will produce damaging and dangerous results. The ruinous refusal to move away from fossil-fuel-heavy economic growth – and, in this case, car-based urban transport systems – takes longer than the denial of coronavirus science to work its way through to deaths and destruction, but it does do so.

Senior Labour politicians show the same willingness as the Tories to deceive and cheat, rather than abandon fossil-fuel-heavy policies. We will face a crescendo of this deception and cheating in the run-up to the climate talks in Glasgow in November, and we need to respond forcefully.

The GLA clearly has no social licence to go ahead with the Silvertown Tunnel, any more than the government has a social licence to start opening new coal mines. If ever there was a case for a campaign of civil disobedience, this is it.
 
Download this whole article as a PDF here.

The Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition

Electric cars are no panacea. The government’s focus on them is a sham – People & Nature, 23 February

Note. Materials and construction emissions, see TfL Silvertown Tunnel Environment Statement, section 13.4 and 13.7, and Silvertown Tunnel Energy & Carbon Statement, section 5.3.18.

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There’s Still Time To Stop The Climate-Trashing Silvertown Tunnel