The Black Death was as far as we know the worst pandemic ever experienced. Its mortality rate was highest in percentage terms, killing 60% of the known population in Europe. Only the Plague of Justinian had a similar rate.
In terms of death numbers the highest was the Spanish Flu, at its height between 1918 and 1920 but which is believed not to have disappeared until 1960, with the 1957 flu pandemic that killed my grand uncle, Brother Thomas O'Brien, SJ in Sydney, Australia. In numbers of deaths, the HIV-AIDS pandemic comes third, while Covid is fifth to date, with 38 million dying. Covid isn't over though. Hopefully we are past its peak though you never know until it ends and you only know it is over when it has disappeared completely for a decade. Occasionally a pandemic can come roaring back but usually they don't.
Of course the death rate of Covid was suppressed by vaccines. Without vaccines it might have had a death rate akin to the Spanish Flu - which is thought now to have killed 100 million.
One figure gives an indication of how extreme the Black Death was compared to HIV-AIDS or Covid. Covid's death rate worldwide was 0.4375%. The Black Death was up to 60% of the known population. So the Black Death was up to 120 times more lethal than Covid. Even without the vaccines that saved so many, covid would never have reached the lethality of the Black Death. Our answers in the Black Death saw three out of every five people they knew die.
The trouble with pandemics and plagues is that they are a constant. They always occur. We just don't know when. We might not have a pandemic for fifty years, or one could appear next week. We have no idea. All we know is that they usually involve an animal virus spreading into humans, and as we have never had it before our immune system has no way of fighting it.
Covid appears to come from bats in Wuhan. It was a natural bat virus. Either a researcher in the research lab in Wuhan didn’t follow the strict rules to protect themselves and accidentally got the virus and unknowingly spread it. Or it came from the notorious wet markets in Wuhan, where live bats are sold to be used in soups. The WHO had been warning for decades that those markets needed to be closed. China panicked either because a staff member in the lab got infected through negligence, or because China had failed to close down the wet markets.
The Spanish Flu appears to have come from a pig in Kansas. The pig passed it to a farm labourer. He was scheduled to join the US Army as America had joined World War I and so went to the local unit. Unbeknown to him he carried the pig virus and infected the unit. It spread like wildfire through the army and families. Soldiers arrived in the port of Brest and infected port workers. Port workers infected crews arriving in the port. Those crews carried it all over the world.
So the world was thrown into chaos because one pig infected one farm labourer with the Spanish Flu. Or on bat passed its virus to one person in Wuhan.
The US army noticed that lots of soldiers were suddenly getting very ill and some were dying but had no idea what was going on. The same happened in Wuhan. People began getting sick and rumours spread that there was some strange illness spreading. People like Dr Fauci received reports and began wondering "is this a new pandemic?"
China hushed it up as it was either caused by sloppy research practices in the lab in Wuhan, or China's failure despite warnings to close down the wet markets selling bats. Either way, a fuck by China had unleashed a pandemic and China tried to hide it as its reputation was at risk.
Unfortunately, just as the port of Brest spread the virus through crews on ships, Wuhan is a major transport hub, with air flights all over the world and vast numbers getting trains and planes in Wuhan. Bad as that was, the outbreak happened during major holidays, when literally millions were travelling through Wuhan to visit families, or travelling abroad.
That is how easy pandemics start. One animal. One virus. One infected human. So we have no idea when the next one will start. But one will occur. It may come from a cow or a sheep or a cat or a rabbit or a pig or a dog or a pigeon or some other animal. All it takes is one person to catch it and a calamity awaits.
One thing the Black Death taught us is that to stop it spreading, humans have to stop mixing. That is why since mediaeval times we have had lockdowns. The spread can only be slowed down by shutting down the country - at least until you find a vaccine and begin vaccinating people.
That is the world of plagues and pandemics. Predictable in what has to be done. Predictable that another one will always occur. Unpredictable in that you don't know the animal that will pass on the virus the type of virus and when it will occur.
My grandmothers lived through the Spanish Flu, 1929 flu, 1957 flu and the beginning of HIV-AIDS. My grandfathers were two decades older than their wives, so they also lived though the Russian Flu (1889-90s). My great-grandparents lived through five pandemics between the 1840s and 1930s.
Shakespeare lived through two pandemics in one decade. He was primarily a jobbing actor but with London constantly in lockdowns the theatres were closed. So he spent lockdowns writing plays.
In terms of death numbers the highest was the Spanish Flu, at its height between 1918 and 1920 but which is believed not to have disappeared until 1960, with the 1957 flu pandemic that killed my grand uncle, Brother Thomas O'Brien, SJ in Sydney, Australia. In numbers of deaths, the HIV-AIDS pandemic comes third, while Covid is fifth to date, with 38 million dying. Covid isn't over though. Hopefully we are past its peak though you never know until it ends and you only know it is over when it has disappeared completely for a decade. Occasionally a pandemic can come roaring back but usually they don't.
Of course the death rate of Covid was suppressed by vaccines. Without vaccines it might have had a death rate akin to the Spanish Flu - which is thought now to have killed 100 million.
One figure gives an indication of how extreme the Black Death was compared to HIV-AIDS or Covid. Covid's death rate worldwide was 0.4375%. The Black Death was up to 60% of the known population. So the Black Death was up to 120 times more lethal than Covid. Even without the vaccines that saved so many, covid would never have reached the lethality of the Black Death. Our answers in the Black Death saw three out of every five people they knew die.
The trouble with pandemics and plagues is that they are a constant. They always occur. We just don't know when. We might not have a pandemic for fifty years, or one could appear next week. We have no idea. All we know is that they usually involve an animal virus spreading into humans, and as we have never had it before our immune system has no way of fighting it.
Covid appears to come from bats in Wuhan. It was a natural bat virus. Either a researcher in the research lab in Wuhan didn’t follow the strict rules to protect themselves and accidentally got the virus and unknowingly spread it. Or it came from the notorious wet markets in Wuhan, where live bats are sold to be used in soups. The WHO had been warning for decades that those markets needed to be closed. China panicked either because a staff member in the lab got infected through negligence, or because China had failed to close down the wet markets.
The Spanish Flu appears to have come from a pig in Kansas. The pig passed it to a farm labourer. He was scheduled to join the US Army as America had joined World War I and so went to the local unit. Unbeknown to him he carried the pig virus and infected the unit. It spread like wildfire through the army and families. Soldiers arrived in the port of Brest and infected port workers. Port workers infected crews arriving in the port. Those crews carried it all over the world.
So the world was thrown into chaos because one pig infected one farm labourer with the Spanish Flu. Or on bat passed its virus to one person in Wuhan.
The US army noticed that lots of soldiers were suddenly getting very ill and some were dying but had no idea what was going on. The same happened in Wuhan. People began getting sick and rumours spread that there was some strange illness spreading. People like Dr Fauci received reports and began wondering "is this a new pandemic?"
China hushed it up as it was either caused by sloppy research practices in the lab in Wuhan, or China's failure despite warnings to close down the wet markets selling bats. Either way, a fuck by China had unleashed a pandemic and China tried to hide it as its reputation was at risk.
Unfortunately, just as the port of Brest spread the virus through crews on ships, Wuhan is a major transport hub, with air flights all over the world and vast numbers getting trains and planes in Wuhan. Bad as that was, the outbreak happened during major holidays, when literally millions were travelling through Wuhan to visit families, or travelling abroad.
That is how easy pandemics start. One animal. One virus. One infected human. So we have no idea when the next one will start. But one will occur. It may come from a cow or a sheep or a cat or a rabbit or a pig or a dog or a pigeon or some other animal. All it takes is one person to catch it and a calamity awaits.
One thing the Black Death taught us is that to stop it spreading, humans have to stop mixing. That is why since mediaeval times we have had lockdowns. The spread can only be slowed down by shutting down the country - at least until you find a vaccine and begin vaccinating people.
That is the world of plagues and pandemics. Predictable in what has to be done. Predictable that another one will always occur. Unpredictable in that you don't know the animal that will pass on the virus the type of virus and when it will occur.
My grandmothers lived through the Spanish Flu, 1929 flu, 1957 flu and the beginning of HIV-AIDS. My grandfathers were two decades older than their wives, so they also lived though the Russian Flu (1889-90s). My great-grandparents lived through five pandemics between the 1840s and 1930s.
Shakespeare lived through two pandemics in one decade. He was primarily a jobbing actor but with London constantly in lockdowns the theatres were closed. So he spent lockdowns writing plays.
