It repeatedly targeted Irish-controlled air space (that is, not the sovereign airspace, as that would potentially constitute an illegal act under international law, but the international airspace a country had the legal obligation to police to secure international civilian airflight) between 2017 and 2020.
They were no accidental arrivals. At one stage Irish-controlled airspace was targeted twice in two days. Each time, as Ireland's chronically underfunded defence means its air corps cannot intercept planes it had to call out the RAF to intercept the bears and force them out.
Russia was sending a deliberate message to Ireland - you are a target for Russia. This was nothing to do with Irish support for Ukraine, the standard spin of the neutrality hardliners. This was before Russia's second invasion of Ukraine. All countries are Russian targets. Every one. Neutrals and NATO alike. Every country had the bear bomber message. Russia sent the message to neutrals 'Neutrality is irrelevant. You are a target.'
It is well known why Irish airspace and waters are a target. Russia in any war intends to use Irish airspace and waters to launch ballistic missiles, and potentially nuclear missiles. That is why potentially nuclear-armed nuclear submarines frequently are in Irish waters, as with the submarine in Cork harbour some years ago.
Knowing the Irish, through chronic underfunding, is unable to do basic defence, Russia knows Ireland is dependent on the RAF and Royal Navy. However they need to be acting on an Irish request or with Irish permission. That takes time. Russia needs to know how quickly can its bear bombers or submarines intercept and evict its bear bombers and submarines. That would tell it how much time it has to launch missiles, whether ballistic or nuclear, from Ireland.
So, Irish negligence is not a threat to itself. It puts every potential target, including major cities in Europe, at risk.
People like Richard Boyd Barrett work themselves into a frenzy thinking Ireland is under pressure to join NATO. It is a figment of his paranoia and overactive imagination. I worked in politics in the area of defence. I know the private views of politicians on defence. I did not come across any TD who wants to join NATO. Not one. No party has any intention of joining NATO. Nor has NATO invited Ireland to join or even raised the issue. Neither Ireland, not Austria, not Malta nor Switzerland has any intention of joining NATO.
The pressure on defence is not to join NATO. It is simply "fix your goddamned defence. You are putting everyone at risk by your negligence."
They simply want Ireland to have standard defence neutrals like Austria, Cyprus and Switzerland have. Unlike Ireland they take defence as a neutral seriously. Austria has reached 1% of GDP on defence, and will reach 1.3% by 2032 - funded by an extra tax. Switzerland will reach 1% by 2030. Cyprus currently spends 1.8% on defence, excluding pensions. Even tiny Malta, more akin to the Aran Islands times six, spends 0.38% of GDP. Ireland spends a minuscule 0.27% of GDP - the third lowest in the world as a percentage of GDP. Only Mauritius and Haiti spend lower.
The pressure is simply on Ireland to have the sort of defence proper neutrals have. It has nothing to do with joining NATO. It is the sort of spending Ireland should be doing as a sovereign neutral state anyway. If you cannot properly secure your waters and airspace, and after one hundred years of independence still rely on your former colonial master to do your defence for you, are you really independent at all?
⏩ Jim Duffy is a writer-historian.
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