The main loser: people and the society; the winner so far: the Islamic Republic!
As expected, this war has turned people’s lives upside down. Hundreds of deaths, including children and infants, the destruction of a large and important part of society’s infrastructure, energy, water, gas, oil, pharmaceuticals, railways, schools and universities, hospitals and medical centres, factories and historical sites; the spread of poverty, the threat of hunger and famine predicted for 45 million people, poisonous and deadly polluted air; these have been the results of six weeks of devastating war for the Iranian people.
Ironically, during this devastating war, the Islamic Republic has found itself in a stronger position in the eyes of the world and in relation to the people in Iran, despite the significant and fatal blows to its existence and the loss of dozens of important and decisive members of the regime, including Khamenei.
Balance of Power
Forty days after the start of the war, society is facing a bitter truth: the balance of power between the people and the regime has changed to a great extent to the detriment of the people and to the benefit of the Islamic Republic. The war that the pro-US/Israeli factions tried to portray as a war to liberate the people from the evil of the Islamic Republic and are still desperately trying to show it as the only way to liberation and salvation; (they must mean salvation in heaven!) has not only not weakened the regime in relation to the people, but has actually pushed the people back significantly.
People whose lives are daily in danger of total destruction, who have become poorer, with a horrible future of famine and water shortage ahead, are desperate and helpless, tired and weak to organise to take control of their future and to overthrow the Islamic regime. The revolution needs organisation, leadership, a clear strategy and action plan, and political and social awareness. Revolution is not a spontaneous rebellion. Rebellion can be ignited and quickly smothered. The flames of a revolution cannot be easily extinguished.
Up until the day of the first bombing, the Islamic regime’s rule seemed fragile. People had imposed significant setbacks on the regime. People had changed the balance of power in the fight against and confrontation with the regime to a great extent. An important push back which has an ideological significant is the de facto overthrow of the Hejab by the women’s liberation movement. Hejab is the logo; the banner of the Islamic Regime. This is an important victory. But in forty days the war threw the people back and took away the power they had gradually gained over years of struggle.
Seizing nationalism as a trump card
An important factor in strengthening the Islamic regime, both in relation to the people and society and internationally, is for it to appear as the representative of Iranian nationalism and the “ancient Iranian civilization.” The Islamic Republic, especially the state-reformists or the so-called national-Islamists, have made many efforts to seize the ideology of nationalism. Even Ahmadinejad tried to present himself as the standard-bearer of Cyrus and Darius. These games did not have much impact on society and were met with ridicule and mockery.
Nationalism has traditionally and historically been associated with the right-wing opposition, the former regime, and the monarchists. But this right-wing and fascist movement, which has begged Trump and Netanyahu in a filthy and disgusting way to bomb and destroy Iran, carried Israeli flags in its demonstrations, danced and stomped in joy at the bombing and killing of people, and chanted obscene slogans such as "Tank you Trump," "Tank you BB," who have threatened their opposition with torture, death and lynching as their father in crown has done, has been stripped of any credibility in the eyes of the world and the Iranian society as a representative of the "Iranian nation" and in the general political culture of "Iranian nationalism."
Their leader, Reza Pahlavi, who has been exposed by many commentators, even the right wing, as a Mossad agent (the reason for his three trips to Israel during this period must be seen as part of his mission), is devoid of any kind of credibility and reputation in the world's eyes and is known as a freeloader who enjoys a super luxurious life thanks to his parents' thefts. A corrupt man whose name appeared on Epstein's list; a stinking beast who, the power they had gradually gained over years of struggle from before the twelve-day war until today, has openly called on Trump and Netanyahu to bomb and destroy Iran. He has officially opposed the ceasefire, following Netanyahu. He has publicly and in the media begged Trump and Netanyahu to cancel the ceasefire and continue the bombing until complete destruction.
Nationalism is a bourgeois ideology, a deceptive lie to maintain the unity of the people behind the oppressive capitalist state. Nationalism is a winning card of the bourgeoisie to rally and keep the majority of the people behind it, especially in times of war and intensification of class-political differences. Nationalism is the best tool of the bourgeoisie and the ruling class to control and suppress society. But as far as these stooges are concerned, the bitter irony is that their masters, Israel and America, are rushing so recklessly and brutally to implement the project of the new Middle East and Greater Israel that there is not a shred of credibility left for this so-called opposition. They have been completely thrown out of the Iranian political scene. One of the losers of this war is this old fascist movement. Thus, the seat of the representative of Iranian nationalism has been vacated for the Islamic regime to occupy.
This fascist movement, ardent propagandist of war, has gone so far in admiring and serving the US and Israel that no one, whether on the right or the left, recognises them as anything other than servants and mercenaries. Internationally, in the eyes of the global left movement and among people who are against war and massacre, the Islamic Republic, which has not only resisted military aggression so far, but has also inflicted relatively large economic and military damage on Israel and the military bases and economic interests of the United States in the sheikhdoms, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, has become the representative of "Iran" and therefore Iranian nationalism. Thanks to the blessing of the war, the Islamic regime was able to conquer a position for which it had fought fruitlessly for years.
Becoming a "world power"; The Mask of "Civilization and Morality"
It is not known whether the Islamic regime will emerge from this war in one piece and in full power or wounded and scarred? Perhaps not at all and will be destroyed; Future will tell. But in the current situation, the Islamic regime has won this devastating war.
In the eyes of the world, the Islamic Republic has made several important advances. It should be borne in mind that a large population of the world has suffered from the crimes, bullying and plunder of the American and Western empires, spearheaded by Israel; their conscience has been tormented by the genocide of Israel/America and the West in the Middle East and Africa. These people, who belong to various political movements, feel joy and happiness when they see the American and Israeli forces being hit. This is a natural and spontaneous human reaction. One must bear in mind that, except for the mainstream media, all narratives and analyses of this war call America and Israel the aggressors and the cause of the war. The majority of the world wants America and Israel to lose this war.
Furthermore, in the complete absence of any left and progressive force in the region that stands against Israel and America, in a situation where all the governments in the region are stooges of US and Israel, the resistance of the Islamic regime against the attacks of US and Israel and its attacks on Israel and the military bases and economic resources of America in the sheikhdoms has enhanced the position and credibility of the Islamic regime. This does not apply only to the forces supporting the so-called Axis of Resistance, many movements and people who are tired of these crimes and bullying of the last few years and see the danger of the destruction of the world have risen to praise the Islamic Republic.
Those who have rebelled against Trump's insane and psychopathic rants and behaviour immediately look to the opposite pole. Unfortunately, this is the spontaneous reaction of most human beings.
It must be admitted that the world is in a very dangerous and decisive situation. Anger, anxiety and fear dominate the atmosphere. People's eyes are opening to the lies, corruption and filth that rule the world. The mass protest movement is vast but devoid of radical left leadership. The working class and socialist movements are weak, incoherent, and scattered. The world is at a turning point: on the one hand, the undisputed rise of fascism, and on the other, the formation of a mass movement of awareness and protest.
As far as the people of Iran are concerned, maintaining and building solidarity, forming circles of support, and trying to maintain hope must be at the heart of our activities. In these circumstances, maintaining physical and mental survival is the main goal. Maintaining vigilance and readiness to confront a dark scenario is vital. The current situation is a defensive one. If the people can cope with these difficult and exhausting conditions, they will be in a much stronger position against the Islamic Republic, and if it is replaced along the way by a regime change, people will be in a better position to confront that puppet regime.
⏩ Asar Majed is the Chairperson of Organisation for Women’s Liberation.
No comments