Long gone are the days when Alliance was led by moderates, such as Lord John Alderdice, a fellow mainstream Presbyterian minister’s son and Boys’ Brigade enthusiast like myself. John and I were at Ballymena Academy together and were members of the school’s cross country and athletics clubs.
During the era of his leadership of Alliance, it was a party which Unionists could transfer to in PR elections. In past European, Assembly, Westminster and council elections in Northern Ireland, the so-called ‘Alliance Bounce’ has seen the party make gains its founders in the Seventies could only dream about.
The perception among the pro-Union community is that Alliance made those gains by attracting votes from moderate Unionism. Perhaps those moderate Unionists saw voting Alliance as a form of protest against the ‘Big Three’ Unionist parties - the DUP, UUP and TUV - rather than remaining at home and not voting.
But a new brand of Alliance Party has emerged in recent months which completely shatters that 20th century perception that Alliance is a ‘soft U’ Unionist party.
Taking the Alderdice era as a benchmark, Alliance was generally stronger in the pro-Union communities and constituencies. West of the River Bann was not viewed as fertile electoral territory for this so-called middle ground, centre party.
However, to advance into that territory west of the Bann, whilst hopefully holding onto any gains east of the Bann, Alliance has had to rebrand itself as a ‘soft R’ republican party capable of attracting transfers and even first preferences from traditional SDLP and Sinn Fein voters.
Basically, Alliance has rebranded itself on the ground once occupied by the now defunct ‘soft R’ republican Irish Independence Party, once fronted by former British Army officer and Protestant John Turnley. He was a Larne IIP councillor when he was shot dead by the UDA in Carnlough in June 1980.
Even before a border poll would ever be called, Alliance is currently under pressure to declare how it would encourage folk to vote on the issue of Irish Unity.
When it comes to talk of a border poll, parties like Alliance cannot afford - or will not be allowed - to adopt a ‘sit on the fence’ attitude. Look what happened to the UUP over the Brexit referendum in 2016.
However, if the Assembly and local government results in Northern Ireland are taken as a snap shot, Alliance is inextricably linked to the Pan Nationalist Front of Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein in wanting a united Ireland.
Recent opinion polls have shown a slow but steady decline in support for Alliance. Could it be that moderate Unionists are finally waking up to the political reality that Alliance has attached its coat strings to the Pan Nationalist Front and republicans and nationalist parties merely see Alliance as a few extra votes to get motions passed at Stormont or councils.
Yes, the opinion polls prove the Alliance Bubble is leaking, but if it is to be finally burst by the time of the next Assembly poll in 2027, the pro-Union parties need to expose Alliance as being that integral partner in the Pan Nationalist Front.
Just as some Unionists vote tactically for the SDLP after they have voted for all the pro-Union parties, all Unionists - and especially moderate Unionists, centre ground Unionists, middle of the road Unionists, or whatever term this section of the pro-Union community wants to call itself - need to stop giving first and second preferences to Alliance, and only see a vote for Alliance as the least worst option to having someone elected from the SDLP or Sinn Fein.
Strategically, the 2027 Stormont election campaign has already begun. The pro-Union community needs to educate the Unionist electorate not just to engage with the electoral process and actually come out to vote, but also to inform that Unionist electorate exactly what Alliance has now become.
One of the challenges in achieving this is that many in the pensioner lobby of the pro-Union community still see Alliance as being a 21st century John Alderdice-type party. The flip side of the coin is that younger and first time voters may see Alliance as a protest party.
In reality, both these voter bases need to recognise that the so-called ‘centre ground’ political mask of Alliance has slipped badly and the party is firmly in the clutches of the Pan Nationalist Front.
When the utterances of numerous Alliance elected representatives are taken into consideration, many of those politicians could feel equally at ease ideologically in the SDLP, maybe some in Sinn Fein.
Likewise, just as President Connolly got elected by creating a Broad Left alliance, will we also see in the coming months Alliance drifting away from the so-called middle road ideologically and become a clear Left-wing movement rather than a liberal party?
If moderate Unionism needs a political wake-up call about what Alliance really now is as a movement, it needs only to watch again the debate in the Stormont Assembly concerning the No Confidence motion in the DUP Education Minister, which was led by Left-wing West Belfast MLA Gerry Carroll from the Far Left party People Before Profit.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
When did hard-line Unionism become moderates? The Alliance remain the token 'moderate' Unionist Party --they have not moved anywhere close to Nationalism. I think John Coulter's problem is increasing revelations of his own extremism and his staunchly Loyalist background.
ReplyDeleteAlso what do Alliance or any political party actually offer the people across the board? ALL the parties are found wanting.
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