The most obvious lesson for Unionists was the ability of the Connolly camp to form a so-called Broad Left alliance ranging from Independents to the Provisional IRA’s political wing, Sinn Fein.
It seemed as if the Broad Left had taken a leaf out of the tactics book of the Pan Nationalist Front in selling Ms Connolly to the Southern electorate.
Although it makes me wonder what the political bill will be from the republican movement’s ruling IRA Army Council for Sinn Fein backing for the Connolly campaign.
But let’s think positive. Given the ideological differences in the so-called Broad Left in Southern Ireland, it was an amazing feat to hold it all together to provide Ms Connolly with one of the most decisive outcomes in the history of Irish Presidential elections. It was a result even political devotees of US President Donald Trump would be proud to achieve.
Unionists take note - if the Southern Broad Left can create political unity for an election, surely the pro-Union parties in Northern Ireland can reach some kind of Unionist co-operation in time for the next expected Stormont poll in 2027?
Just as the Broad Left in Eire came together to get Ms Connolly handsomely elected, could the pro-Union parties reach an agreement which restores Unionism’s majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly?
Then again, looking south of the Irish border, how long will it be before Sinn Fein starts rocking the Broad Left boat politically so that cracks begin to appear and that ‘dream boat’ Broad Left alliance starts coming apart?
Put bluntly, how long can the mixed bag of soft socialists, Trotskyites, Marxists, Leninists, Stalinists, communists and other Broad Left ideology supporters stay in the same room politically before one faction decides on ‘the split’ and leaves to form yet another Pan Nationalist Front?
In Unionism, the aspiration of a single Unionist party to represent all shades of pro-Union thinking may be just as ‘pie in the sky’ as the Broad Left alliance becoming a single political party to represent all shades of thinking in Left-wing politics in Southern Ireland.
Just as there is talk of a realignment within Unionism into two distinct power blocs - moderate liberal woke Unionism and socially conservative Right-wing Unionism - could a similar realignment be taking place in Southern Ireland in time for the next expected Dail showdown in 2029?
On one hand, there will be the existing coalition of former Irish civil war-type rivals Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in one camp, and everyone else taking their orders from Sinn Fein in the opposite camp.
It is said a week is a long time in politics; be realistic, how long will the Broad Left political honeymoon last? Can it survive until 2029 before Sinn Fein chucks a spanner in the works?
Perhaps more worryingly for Southern Irish politics was the number of spoilt votes at over 200,000. Could such a momentum happen in Northern Irish politics, especially in Unionism?
In the past, many Unionists voted Alliance as a protest against the confusion among the main Unionist parties.
But opinion polls seem to be suggesting the Alliance bubble is slowly leaking air as pro-Union voters realise that Alliance is no longer the ‘soft U’ Unionist party of the John Alderdice and David Ford leadership eras, but has now evolved into an openly ‘soft R’ republican party and is an integral part of the Pan Nationalist Front along with Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Dublin government.
Is the spoilt vote lobby in Southern Ireland the political equivalent of the ‘stay at home’ lobby within Northern Ireland Unionism?
The position of Irish President is largely a ceremonial role, but is there a temptation that the Connolly camp will slowly but surely ensure that there is a more politically vocal aspect to the post in terms of demanding a border poll on Irish Unity?
Likewise, it should not be forgotten by the Northern pro-Union community the sectarian abuse which was directed towards another of the presidential candidates - Presbyterian Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael, who has family connections to the Orange Order.
Is this the type of treatment which Northern Unionists can expect in any New Ireland or Shared Island? Republicans of various shades have been quick to condemn such sectarian abuse of the Fine Gael candidate, but in reality, the nationalist mask has slipped and Unionism has been given a glimpse of the kind of Ireland it can expect should ever a border poll result in support for Irish Unity.
Later this month, we will witness the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 which gave Dublin its first major say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition in the 1920s.
Unionism should take this anniversary to analyse why the Ulster Says No and Ulster Still Says No campaigns eventually fizzled out like a damp Hallowe’en squib.
Likewise, the establishment parties in Leinster House - Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael - will probably also be using the anniversary of the so-called Dublin Diktat not just to evaluate what they have achieved in those 40 years, but also the implications for the FF/FG political ‘love-in’ in the Dail of a Ms Connolly presidency.
It’s still a matter of weeks until the Christmas recess for the Dail and Stormont. In the meantime, I’ve no doubt the IRA Army Council will be drawing up a politically hefty invoice to deliver to the Connolly camp as the price for Sinn Fein support in the Southern Presidential election.
I would hate to be the member of the Connolly camp which opens that bill, reads the substantial tip which will be required and then politically chokes on their Brussel Sprouts!
I equally wonder how long it will be before someone in the Connolly camp whispers to the new Irish President that climbing into bed politically with the republican movement was not the wisest of ideas?
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
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