Historians still debate whether World War I really started in 1914. Many argue that it started in 1912 when the Balkan League declared war on, and defeated, the Ottoman Empire in the first of two Balkan wars between 1912 and 1914, with those wars setting the scene for the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914.
The idea that it started in 1914 is very much a western European and American perspective as they weren't in any conflict before 1914 or later in the case of the US.
Similarly with World War II, did it start in September 1939, March 1939 or in 1938? Some even say earlier. Some date it to the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia. Some date it to the annexation of Austria. Western Europe dates it to September 1939 and Nazi-Russian invasion of Poland, as that is what involved the west in a war.
If one asked many people even in August 1914 were they in a world war they would say "no. Of course not!" Then again, was World War I even the first world war? Arguably there were wars earlier that could be called world wars as they involved people on multiple continents through European empires.
There is general though reluctant agreement that Putin is determined to start a full war, and that his hybrid war is a form of war just marginally below the legal threshold but which at any time could step over that threshold. Had the attempt by Russia to cause the plane of the President of the European Commission to crash in Bulgaria succeeded we would be in a full war now. That would legally be a casus belli.
The hybrid war is targeting every country in Europe, neutrals and NATO alike. Ireland has been targeted at least once, while Russian spy ships have been gathering data on underwater cables and interconnectors on critical infrastructure Ireland depends on and which could cause chaos in Ireland (causing long-term power-cuts, shutting down businesses and banks, etc). Try running Ireland when it loses 50%+ of its electricity generation ability at a time when it can barely generate enough electricity!!!
Every neutral bar tiny geographically irrelevant Malta has been targeted in hybrid attacks. Ireland has. Switzerland has. Austria has. Cyprus has. Add to that Russia's attempts to plant incendiaries on planes flying from Europe to North America, with quick timers which suggest they wanted the planes to crash either in the Benelux Countries, Britain or Ireland. They were timed to ignite while over land, not the Atlantic. Russian state-run TV gloated over a piece on it by a long-time Putin mouthpiece on Ukraine threatening to let off a nuclear bomb off the coast of Donegal to destroy Ireland.
The Taoiseach said that the Irish population was "blissfully unaware" of the threat to Ireland, and drunk on neutrality delusions. It is. So are some of his ministers. Thankfully the Minister for Defence isn't.
Most countries now believe Putin is so intent on causing a war that it is unavoidable, just as Hitler was so intent on causing one that it was unavoidable though Chamberlain desperately tried to avoid it until he realised it was impossible to. Denmark, hardly a warlike nation, predicts a war within three to five years. Germany predicts possibly as soon as eighteen months. Putin's behaviour is so explicit and aggressive that it seems he is determined to cause one, though it is the last thing other countries want.
France and Germany have both ordered major upgrading of their health service to be ready to deal with thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of injured people. It is the last thing they want, but given Putin's behaviour (including massing large numbers of troops on the Finnish border) they realised it would be reckless not to prepare their health services.
They hope it doesn't happen, but suspect it is going to, and as history shows, no matter how much a country tries to avoid a war, it becomes unavoidable if a bad actor is intent on causing one that engulfs them. You can say all you want that you don't want one, but it becomes unavoidable when your state is attacked directly or indirectly or you know it is about to be.
Ukraine signed the Bucharest Memorandum to avoid war, giving its nuclear weapons to Russia and agreeing to put neutrality in its constitution. Putin broke it and every other deal. They quickly realised neutrality means nothing to Putin except that he considers you an easy target. He invaded Ukraine, forcing it to try to join NATO for protection. When Merkel blocked it that left Ukraine a sitting duck for Putin and he invaded a second time in 2022 and has to fight to preserve its independence.
So, no matter how much you don't want war, a bad actor determined to cause one will, and drag you in. Putin has made explicit threats to Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova and a host of other countries. When he questioned Finland's right to be independent after a century of independence, Finland, like Sweden, once they see him attack Ukraine a second time concluded neutrality is dead and they needed to join NATO. Cyprus also wants to join NATO, but its enemy Turkey is blocking it.
The likelihood, tragically, is that a war is highly likely. As in the past, often countries may not know they are in a major war, or even a world war, until it has started and they are in it. Historians will then look to see could the attack on Ukraine in 2022 be regarded as the beginning of the war.
The best advice on how to avoid war remains the 4th or 5th century AD 'Si vis pacem, para bellum' by Publius (or Flavius) Vegetius Renatus, known as Vegetius. It means "If you want peace, prepare for war." In other words, be sufficiently well armed and protected that your enemy will not dare attack you. In modern parlance it is 'peace through strength'. That is why NATO members and neutrals are all significantly increasing defence spending - as a deterrent. Austria has raised its defence spend to 1% of GDP. Switzerland will reach that in 2030. Cyprus is at 1.8%. Ireland, naturally is at 0.24% of GDP, or 0.4% of GNI.
Either number is damning. It is also damning that after a century of independence Ireland still has to rely on Britain to do its basic air and sea defences for it. A core duty of every state is to be able to protect its air, sea and land. Yet independent Ireland has flunked it.
⏩ Jim Duffy is a writer-historian.
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