Russia’s brazen strike against Poland may serve several overlapping objectives.
First, it is a test of NATO’s “red lines.” In Moscow, they know perfectly well that the Alliance’s greatest vulnerability lies not in weapons or finances, but in political will. For Putin, the ideal outcome is to demonstrate NATO’s institutional paralysis and, above all, to expose Donald Trump’s reluctance to risk America for the sake of Warsaw or Vilnius. A single sign of hesitation from the White House would send shockwaves far beyond Europe.
Second, the Kremlin seeks to deepen the atmosphere of fear in Central Europe. Fear is fertile ground for political extremes. Both the far right and far left, often sympathetic to Moscow, would gain momentum. Europe would slowly begin to resemble Orbán’s Hungary, where cooperation with Russia is normalized and solidarity with Ukraine or with victims of aggression becomes almost a political taboo.
Third, the strike provokes debates about Europe’s own military preparedness. Moscow knows that the more Europeans talk about rearming themselves and building up defense industries, the louder the voices will grow against providing weapons to Ukraine. The Kremlin wants to convince the West that it is better to prepare for a hypothetical future war than to help Ukraine win the one being fought today.
Fourth, the attack fuels anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Millions of Ukrainian refugees already serve as an easy target for populists who stoke xenophobia. A strike on Poland is meant to remind Europeans: war is close, and Ukrainians are a “living warning” of what may come to your own homes. Moscow’s goal is to turn Ukrainians from allies into scapegoats.
Fifth, it is a rehearsal for larger aggression. In the Kremlin, strategists are carefully observing the reaction of Washington and Brussels. If NATO’s response proves weak, Putin will see it as an invitation to escalate further.
And here lies the real danger. This is not simply about Poland or Ukraine. It is about the future of Europe. Step by step, Nazi Germany once tested the world’s resolve: in the Rhineland, in the Sudetenland, in Prague. Each time the West told itself: “This is not yet war, we can live with it.” Until the flames engulfed the entire planet.
Putin is acting in precisely the same way. The question now is whether the West has the courage to recognize the pattern—and to act before history repeats itself. Because if aggressors are met not with strength but with indifference, then Europe’s borders will once again be redrawn by force.
First, it is a test of NATO’s “red lines.” In Moscow, they know perfectly well that the Alliance’s greatest vulnerability lies not in weapons or finances, but in political will. For Putin, the ideal outcome is to demonstrate NATO’s institutional paralysis and, above all, to expose Donald Trump’s reluctance to risk America for the sake of Warsaw or Vilnius. A single sign of hesitation from the White House would send shockwaves far beyond Europe.
Second, the Kremlin seeks to deepen the atmosphere of fear in Central Europe. Fear is fertile ground for political extremes. Both the far right and far left, often sympathetic to Moscow, would gain momentum. Europe would slowly begin to resemble Orbán’s Hungary, where cooperation with Russia is normalized and solidarity with Ukraine or with victims of aggression becomes almost a political taboo.
Third, the strike provokes debates about Europe’s own military preparedness. Moscow knows that the more Europeans talk about rearming themselves and building up defense industries, the louder the voices will grow against providing weapons to Ukraine. The Kremlin wants to convince the West that it is better to prepare for a hypothetical future war than to help Ukraine win the one being fought today.
Fourth, the attack fuels anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Millions of Ukrainian refugees already serve as an easy target for populists who stoke xenophobia. A strike on Poland is meant to remind Europeans: war is close, and Ukrainians are a “living warning” of what may come to your own homes. Moscow’s goal is to turn Ukrainians from allies into scapegoats.
Fifth, it is a rehearsal for larger aggression. In the Kremlin, strategists are carefully observing the reaction of Washington and Brussels. If NATO’s response proves weak, Putin will see it as an invitation to escalate further.
And here lies the real danger. This is not simply about Poland or Ukraine. It is about the future of Europe. Step by step, Nazi Germany once tested the world’s resolve: in the Rhineland, in the Sudetenland, in Prague. Each time the West told itself: “This is not yet war, we can live with it.” Until the flames engulfed the entire planet.
Putin is acting in precisely the same way. The question now is whether the West has the courage to recognize the pattern—and to act before history repeats itself. Because if aggressors are met not with strength but with indifference, then Europe’s borders will once again be redrawn by force.
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| Vitalii Portnikov is an Ukrainian journalist, political commentator, author and opinion-maker |
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