What Might Have Happened In Britain And Ireland Had Hitler Won?

Caoimhin O’Muraile ☭ Well, obviously and thankfully the above nightmare did not happen.

After the defeat of Nazi Germany at Stalingrad and Kursk paving the way for the D. Day landings in the West, defeat for the Third Reich was only a matter of time. However, this was not always the case because between 1940 and early 1942 a Nazi victory looked a racing certainty. So, using facts and supposition I shall try drawing a picture of what might have happened to the peoples of these two islands in such an event.

Firstly, had the RAF lost the Battle of Britain in the air an invasion would have almost certainly have taken place. Hitler’s forces had already landed on British soil in the Chanell Islands. The RAF did win the Battle of Britain, against all the odds it should be remembered, and an invasion did not take place. Hitler already had ‘Operation Sea Lion’ (Unternehmen Seelowe) in place outlining the invasion of Britain supplemented by ‘Operation Green’ which were his plans for Ireland. Though publicly he stated having no “desires” on Ireland, reading Operation Green would suggest something different.

German agents posing as agricultural and horticultural students had been working in Ireland throughout the 1930s testing the soil quality and standard of farming in the country. The conclusion was farming was inefficient and all farms would be given to German farmers with the Irish former owners used as farm labourers – slaves! Students from Germany in hydrology were also hard at work studying the depth of the ports on the west of Ireland coast for their U. Boats. These students too were, needless to say, agents of the Third Reich. Many political illiterates claim; “if Germany had won the war we’d be rid of the Brits” which is perfectly true only to be occupied on a 32 County basis by Nazi Germany, perhaps using somebody such as Eoin O’ Duffy as their puppet Governor. Such a scenario would have been far worse than anything even the Black and Tans could have inflicted!

Since 1940 Britain had made preparations after the retreat from Dunkirk for a Nazi invasion. They had formed the ‘Home Guard’ made up of men either too young or too old for front line service. These men were far more formidable than any television comedy portrays them, and men in their late thirties and forties were well able for a scrap on home ground. However, with the best will in the world the German Army with the evil Waffen SS in support would have overcome these well-meaning and able – to a point – defenders. So what after then?

Hugh Dalton the head of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) which carried out guerilla attacks against the Germans in occupied Europe training the various resistance fighters in these countries had already studied the IRA tactics in the Irish War of Independence. People of interest to him were IRA Commander Tom Barry in rural areas, particularly the Battle of Kilmichael, November 28th 1920, and the antics of Michael Collins in Dublin, particularly his intelligence network. Had the Nazis occupied Britain it is highly likely the British resistance would have adopted similar tactics to those of the IRA (“and you dare to call me a terrorist”). Would many British people have collaborated with the Germans? It is highly likely they would just as many French, Czechs, Poles, Dutch, Danes in fact peoples from all over occupied Europe collaborated to a greater or lesser extent with the Nazis. Equally all over the occupied continent resistance groups were operating and Britain would have been no exception.

British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill had vowed to fight on against the Nazis had they invaded, making many grand speeches about fighting on beaches and defending “our island” against the foe. Churchill could afford to say this because, just like all governments of occupied Europe, he and his government were to do a runner in their case to Canada. Just to quell the myth that the first duty of any government is to look after its people, it is not, it is to look after itself so it could one day return to govern. When the Belgium Royal Family legged it after being overrun many of the naïve British public claimed; “our King would never leave us like that”. This was blind naivety to say the least as the monarchy were also destined for Canada with Churchill and his Government.

So, what then of the British people? Well, many of the ruling elite actually sided with the Nazis in organisations like the Friday Club. These would in all probability have occupied puppet government posts. It is likely Oswald Mosely of the British Union of Fascists (BUF) would have been put in charge by Hitler as the two men were already acquainted. Mosely married Dianna Guinness (Nee Mitford) after she divorced Brian Guinness of the huge Guinness Brewery company. He married her at the home of Dr Joseph Goebbels the Nazi propaganda minister a ceremony which Hitler was present. It is equally likely that Edward VIII, the abdication King, would have been placed on the throne because he, like Mosely, was acquainted on speaking terms with Hitler. What may have become of the working-class in Britian? Again it is highly likely that like their compatriots in other occupied countries they would have been forced to work for the Reich in Berlin – slave labour.

What then of Ireland? De Valera had steered a clever ship in fairness to him during the “Emergency”, maintaining Irelands “benevolent” neutrality; benevolent that was towards the allies. Earlier in the first years of what became a global conflict Hitler had demanded from de Valera he hand over Ireland's Jewish population to the Reich. De Valera refused and Hitler advised him he would “come and get them himself” which was a frightening prospect at the time. De Valera had, breaking the treaty of 1922, increased the Irish Army to around 150,000 men and women which included reservists in case of a German invasion. They were to fight alongside the British and Commonwealth troops in such an event. Would that have been sufficient?

With Britain defeated it would have been perhaps only a matter of time before the Nazis occupied Ireland. Weaponry would have been in short supply after so long. Remember the British had left most of their equipment at Dunkirk. Hitler also had ideas about using Ireland as a staging post to launch an invasion of Britain. It would have been a matter of a short time before the concentration camps and death camps were set up for all communists, socialists, Jews, trade unionists and those in the Irish Republican Movement. The right wing of the IRA some of whom had collaborated with Hitler would now be surplus to requirements and would have joined their former comrades on the left – the Republican Congress and other groups which split from the IRA – in the camps.

Forget any resistance to Nazi rule because as happened all over Europe, Czechoslovakia in particular the Lidice massacre following the assassination of Reinhard Heidrich in 1942, and for every German soldier shot and wounded by Irish resistance, and the same in Britain, fifty civilians would be executed. For every German soldier shot and killed by resistance fighters that number would rise to one hundred civilians executed if the rest of occupied Europe is a barometer. Hitler saw Britain, well England, as being Germanic by blood so may have been a little easier on them the same could not be said of Celtic Ireland, Scotland and Wales!

All this is supposition because the nightmare did not happen but it came frighteningly close. The Swastika would have flown over Buckingham Palace with King Edward VIII sitting on his throne under it. the tricolour would no longer be the emblem over Dublin Castle - now replaced by the Swastika.

Would a second War of Independence have taken place against the Nazis or would the majority, by no means all, of the Irish population have just accepted the new cruel regime or, in some cases perhaps betraying their Jewish neighbours, even have collaborated? It is amazing what people will do in a given set of circumstances to survive, that is not including those who ideologically agreed with Hitler. In Nazi Germany some Jewish people turned informer on their brethren in the hope they would be spared. They were not: all they managed was to buy a little more time just as did the Kapos in the death camps. The British were once infamous for their cruelty in the occupied countries, including Ireland, which made up their so-called Empire. The Gestapo and SS were leagues in front of even the British when it came to barbarism and cruelty and these thugs would have been given license to do whatever they wished in both Britain and Ireland on the civilian populations.

Thankfully such an event did not happen thanks in no small way to Marshal Georgi Zhukov winning in the Soviet Union. Hitlers ‘Operation Sea Lion’ after the defeat his Luftwaffe suffered at the hands of the RAF in 1940 was only on hold until, as he thought, he had won everywhere else then the invasions of Britain and Ireland, not necessarily in that order, would commence. The nightmare did not come to pass and we can all breath a huge sigh of relief for that.

Caoimhin O’Muraile is Independent Socialist Republican and Marxist.