Brandon Sullivan ✍ I’ll preface this piece by stating that I consider myself a republican of sorts. 

I believe in Ireland being a single unit, and its people citizens of a sovereign nation, not subjects to a foreign crown. I think a unified state would reduce sectarianism, and also, over time, those within the PUL community might find the new dispensation no great threat to their civil and religious liberties. Billions of Euros in EU cash might help the transition.

Historical Context Through The Eyes Of Others

… the Provos helped sustain the [anti-Catholic] discrimination by helping to entrench the most reactionary unionists behind security fences built with billions of pounds of British tax-payers’ money. Those unionists opposed to the very idea of equality of treatment for Catholics could hide their vicious sectarianism behind the screen of outrage kept in constant repair by IRA atrocities - Eamon Collins, Killing Rage.
“This (the IRA ceasefire) is the worst thing that has ever happened to us” … “one of the most destabilising events since partition.” James Molyneaux, then UUP leader, quoted in the Derry Journal and Irish Times, 1994.
The final solution is union. It is going to happen anyway. The historical train, Europe, determines that. Unionists will have to change. This island will be as one.” MI5 Officer “Robert”, early 1990s. Belfast Telegraph.
I don’t care if Northern Ireland falls into the fucking sea.” - Dominic Cummings, Special Advisor to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, circa late 2010s. The New European.

Wrongfooting Unionism

BBC iPlayer has an excellent series on the six “Prime Ministers of Northern Ireland” which is presented by the academic and historian Alvin Jackson. Jackson noted that Sir James Craig’s motivation in building Stormont was to establish Northern Ireland as a country, and that his successors at Prime Minister were fixated on the existence of Northern Ireland as a state(let). Jackson said:

[unionist politicians became ] tempted to believe in their own grandeur ... the key concerns of the six PMs [was] … the unity of Unionism ... achieving stability and progress in divided societies requires great skill, great generosity, and great vision. Greatness of this kind was in short supply in Stormont between 1921 and 1972.

Skill, generosity, and vision are still in short supply among unionist politicians. Blundering, cynicism, and blind bigotry are not.

Eamon Collins and James Molyneaux were correct. The IRA’s campaign gave cover to the ugly intolerance of unionism. Following the IRA ceasefire, the dominant UUP and the then less popular DUP lost their main trump card, and found themselves required to act like politicians and negotiate, with nationalists and republicans, and with the British and Irish governments. Molyneaux was correct that it destabilised unionism, a unionism that was already starting to split. I don’t think unionism has recovered from the tremors of the IRA ceasefire.

Green Versus Orange In The 2020s

The future of republicanism cannot be considered without studying the future of unionism. There are a number of factors at play which give republican politics an opportunity. Firstly, the GFA allows for a referendum on a United Ireland, and pressure will build for that to happen at some stage. Secondly, Brexit has starkly shown the incompetence and small-mindedness endemic in unionist politics. Thirdly, Sinn Fein is the largest party in the North and entitled to take the position of First Minister. Lastly, Sinn Fein are doing very well in the South – the most popular party, according to the Irish News in January this year.

The South looks like a stable, economically viable nation, proud and confident, whilst the UK is an international laughing stock, with Ulster unionists front and centre of the dance of stupidity that reduced Britain in the eyes of the developed world.

There is an ongoing constitutional crisis in the North, signed, sealed, and delivered by the PUL community’s elected representatives. Looking at this clip of RTE interviewing the DUP MP Gavin Robinson summarises this.

The Windsor Agreement posits loyalism’s enemies as the UK and EU. The days of Ulster fighting Britain to remain British are surely at an end. So where could the UVF and UDA go? I don’t think that they can do anything, andI think UKG are out of patience and tolerance for unionist and loyalist intransigence.

What Should Republicans Do?

So, what should republicans do in this strange landscape? Well, in my opinion, they don’t have to do much. Republicans can afford to be patient, and it would be prudent for them to be quiet, in the North at least. Why work at something the opposition is doing so much to deliver?

I accept that many reading this blog do not consider Sinn Fein to be republicans. I have sympathy with their views. They are, after all, paid UK civil servants. And nobody is talking about a 32 County Socialist Republic any more. Instead the talk is of a New Ireland, or an Agreed Ireland.

Sometimes doing very little is the hardest thing to do. But why do more?

I have written before that if the DUP put out a statement saying: “we’ve made an absolute bollix of this, and we’re stepping down. Vote for the UUP, moderation, and extend the hand of friendship to nationalists and republicans” then I think the union could be safe for a generation. But they won’t. Someone turned this on its head and said to me that the same could be said of Sinn Fein: that if they disbanded, they would do the cause of Irish unity a great service. I don’t believe so. But they could make a bollix of things.

Is The Future Republican Or Irish Nationalist?

To address what I think will be criticisms, I think that there is close to zero difference between the constitutional nationalism of the SDLP and that of Sinn Fein. Arguably, the SDLP are more authentically left-wing, but in terms of a roadmap to a new Ireland, there is little difference, except for metrics of success. Which is a fairly major difference.

I don’t think that we will ever see a 32 county Irish socialist republic in my lifetime. I think we will see a new constitutional dispensation, and then at some historical point in the future, a transition to a unitary state. There is little difference between the South and many other neo-liberal European nations.

Unionists will never have the power to dominate and discriminate like they did for many decades. That’s a bonus for the nationalist population (and I would argue many if not most within unionism). But it makes the republic a harder sell.

I think the future is an Irish republic, but not one that looks that like suggested by Sinn Fein during the Troubles and after. Ironically, it may look more like Eire Nua.

Either way, it will be a slow march of history.

⏩ Brandon Sullivan is a middle aged, middle management, centre-left Belfast man. Would prefer people focused on the actual bad guys. 

The Future Of Republicanism

Brandon Sullivan ✍ I’ll preface this piece by stating that I consider myself a republican of sorts. 

I believe in Ireland being a single unit, and its people citizens of a sovereign nation, not subjects to a foreign crown. I think a unified state would reduce sectarianism, and also, over time, those within the PUL community might find the new dispensation no great threat to their civil and religious liberties. Billions of Euros in EU cash might help the transition.

Historical Context Through The Eyes Of Others

… the Provos helped sustain the [anti-Catholic] discrimination by helping to entrench the most reactionary unionists behind security fences built with billions of pounds of British tax-payers’ money. Those unionists opposed to the very idea of equality of treatment for Catholics could hide their vicious sectarianism behind the screen of outrage kept in constant repair by IRA atrocities - Eamon Collins, Killing Rage.
“This (the IRA ceasefire) is the worst thing that has ever happened to us” … “one of the most destabilising events since partition.” James Molyneaux, then UUP leader, quoted in the Derry Journal and Irish Times, 1994.
The final solution is union. It is going to happen anyway. The historical train, Europe, determines that. Unionists will have to change. This island will be as one.” MI5 Officer “Robert”, early 1990s. Belfast Telegraph.
I don’t care if Northern Ireland falls into the fucking sea.” - Dominic Cummings, Special Advisor to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, circa late 2010s. The New European.

Wrongfooting Unionism

BBC iPlayer has an excellent series on the six “Prime Ministers of Northern Ireland” which is presented by the academic and historian Alvin Jackson. Jackson noted that Sir James Craig’s motivation in building Stormont was to establish Northern Ireland as a country, and that his successors at Prime Minister were fixated on the existence of Northern Ireland as a state(let). Jackson said:

[unionist politicians became ] tempted to believe in their own grandeur ... the key concerns of the six PMs [was] … the unity of Unionism ... achieving stability and progress in divided societies requires great skill, great generosity, and great vision. Greatness of this kind was in short supply in Stormont between 1921 and 1972.

Skill, generosity, and vision are still in short supply among unionist politicians. Blundering, cynicism, and blind bigotry are not.

Eamon Collins and James Molyneaux were correct. The IRA’s campaign gave cover to the ugly intolerance of unionism. Following the IRA ceasefire, the dominant UUP and the then less popular DUP lost their main trump card, and found themselves required to act like politicians and negotiate, with nationalists and republicans, and with the British and Irish governments. Molyneaux was correct that it destabilised unionism, a unionism that was already starting to split. I don’t think unionism has recovered from the tremors of the IRA ceasefire.

Green Versus Orange In The 2020s

The future of republicanism cannot be considered without studying the future of unionism. There are a number of factors at play which give republican politics an opportunity. Firstly, the GFA allows for a referendum on a United Ireland, and pressure will build for that to happen at some stage. Secondly, Brexit has starkly shown the incompetence and small-mindedness endemic in unionist politics. Thirdly, Sinn Fein is the largest party in the North and entitled to take the position of First Minister. Lastly, Sinn Fein are doing very well in the South – the most popular party, according to the Irish News in January this year.

The South looks like a stable, economically viable nation, proud and confident, whilst the UK is an international laughing stock, with Ulster unionists front and centre of the dance of stupidity that reduced Britain in the eyes of the developed world.

There is an ongoing constitutional crisis in the North, signed, sealed, and delivered by the PUL community’s elected representatives. Looking at this clip of RTE interviewing the DUP MP Gavin Robinson summarises this.

The Windsor Agreement posits loyalism’s enemies as the UK and EU. The days of Ulster fighting Britain to remain British are surely at an end. So where could the UVF and UDA go? I don’t think that they can do anything, andI think UKG are out of patience and tolerance for unionist and loyalist intransigence.

What Should Republicans Do?

So, what should republicans do in this strange landscape? Well, in my opinion, they don’t have to do much. Republicans can afford to be patient, and it would be prudent for them to be quiet, in the North at least. Why work at something the opposition is doing so much to deliver?

I accept that many reading this blog do not consider Sinn Fein to be republicans. I have sympathy with their views. They are, after all, paid UK civil servants. And nobody is talking about a 32 County Socialist Republic any more. Instead the talk is of a New Ireland, or an Agreed Ireland.

Sometimes doing very little is the hardest thing to do. But why do more?

I have written before that if the DUP put out a statement saying: “we’ve made an absolute bollix of this, and we’re stepping down. Vote for the UUP, moderation, and extend the hand of friendship to nationalists and republicans” then I think the union could be safe for a generation. But they won’t. Someone turned this on its head and said to me that the same could be said of Sinn Fein: that if they disbanded, they would do the cause of Irish unity a great service. I don’t believe so. But they could make a bollix of things.

Is The Future Republican Or Irish Nationalist?

To address what I think will be criticisms, I think that there is close to zero difference between the constitutional nationalism of the SDLP and that of Sinn Fein. Arguably, the SDLP are more authentically left-wing, but in terms of a roadmap to a new Ireland, there is little difference, except for metrics of success. Which is a fairly major difference.

I don’t think that we will ever see a 32 county Irish socialist republic in my lifetime. I think we will see a new constitutional dispensation, and then at some historical point in the future, a transition to a unitary state. There is little difference between the South and many other neo-liberal European nations.

Unionists will never have the power to dominate and discriminate like they did for many decades. That’s a bonus for the nationalist population (and I would argue many if not most within unionism). But it makes the republic a harder sell.

I think the future is an Irish republic, but not one that looks that like suggested by Sinn Fein during the Troubles and after. Ironically, it may look more like Eire Nua.

Either way, it will be a slow march of history.

⏩ Brandon Sullivan is a middle aged, middle management, centre-left Belfast man. Would prefer people focused on the actual bad guys. 

3 comments:

  1. A more considered piece Brandon.
    I think you're right insofar as you imply that the only way left toward unity is persuasion rather than coercion. Not content with having swiped the SDLP's clothing can we now expect the Shinners to take up residence in the Alliance dressing room next?

    Are broad black brimmers destined to become nothing but old hat?
    Unmoored from foundational myth, and perhaps somewhat rudderless, how will Sinn Féin navigate their course then?

    Will even the previous pan-nationalist hegemony for unity survive the electoral battles that lie ahead in the South? I wouldn't be sure. Anyone watching recent exchanges on the 'Tonight Show' on Virgen Media 1 and who saw exchanges between Matt Carty and Jack Chambers or indeed witnessed Fionan Sheehan's mask slip in reaction to Eoin O'Broin's eviction tweet might rightly assume there are significant numbers in the 26 counties holding views not dissimilar to those expressed by Dominic Cummings.

    All that, and the fat lady has hardly begun her warm-up routine.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Excellent point on unionist political figures needing to become genuine politicians with able negotiating skills since the effective end of armed conflict. The more middle class unionists hid under a cloak of outrage unchallenged.

    Beware the EU bearing transitional gifts as they will see unity as expanded territory post brexit if genuine sovereignty is considered.

    "The South looks like a stable, economically viable nation, proud and confident, whilst the UK is an international laughing stock, with Ulster unionists front and centre of the dance of stupidity that reduced Britain in the eyes of the developed world."

    If you are native of the six counties the south may well look better but it's by no means structurally sound. It's a capitalist dream, controlled economically by the desires of multinationals, a political establishment wedded to neoliberalism and a population scattered in division on how to bring about economic and social equality, (In my opinion). My hope is Unification will provide the opportunity for a new way, The Republic and not agreed Ireland.

    I agree with this comment:

    "I don’t think that we will ever see a 32 county Irish socialist republic in my lifetime. I think we will see a new constitutional dispensation, and then at some historical point in the future, a transition to a unitary state. There is little difference between the South and many other neo-liberal European nations."

    Good read. I hope it does look like éire nua! The 2 state federation solution isn't Éire nua though rather avoiding the difficulty of the end of the union, marketable to unionists as akin to an independent ulster instead of democratising the distinct provincial regions. Better to face the question head on. Loyalist violence would be as unsustainable and unproductive as post GFA Republican activities albeit if their tactics are sectarian and not anti-state they would be more devastating until nullified. With no credible idea of going back into the union it would simply die off and leadership would need to be political to advance the needs of the unique cultural demographic that is the PUL within an inclusive modern Ireland which absolutely can happen with time and leadership if vested interests can be defeated.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The slow march of history suggests the long wait should have been adopted rather than the long war.
    As for a 32 county socialist republic, every trend is not in its favour. I suspect I might live to see a border poll but certainly not a united Ireland.

    ReplyDelete