Dr John Coulter ✒  The starting gun has been fired on what will be the notorious ‘Ashtray Assembly’ poll of 2022!

Why ‘ashtray’? Because this Assembly election is about as useful to the Northern Ireland people as an ashtray on a motorbike! It will not solve the Protocol impasse, or restore the devolved institutions, or even protect the peace process or the Good Friday Agreement.

Even if the DUP manages to overturn Sinn Fein’s two-seat majority and emerge as the Assembly’s largest party, that’s no guarantee the DUP will trigger the election of Speaker or nominate a First Minister.

If both the Westminster establishment and the Brussels bureaucrats genuinely want to see fully functioning devolved government restored, then they must make up their minds which is the more important - saving the Protocol or saving the peace process? They can have one or other, but not both.

Put bluntly, for devolution to return to Stormont, the Protocol must go. It can either be done with a ‘cut the head off the snake’ approach and drastic measures to axe the Protocol within the next several weeks.

Or, Westminster and Brussels can agree a series of measures - namely the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ approach - which over the next several months effectively castrate the Protocol politically reducing its influence to a meaningless piece of paper.

But what if either strategy does not placate the DUP and Stormont faces the same political oblivion it did in 1972 - being permanently mothballed?

Unionism needs to have a Plan B up its sleeve for either Direct Rule or Joint Authority.

It cannot afford to adopt a 1974 approach when after the collapse of the Sunningdale Executive, Unionism relied on the force of numbers at the ballot box. Electorally, Unionism is now a minority ideology in Northern Ireland.

Likewise, it cannot equally afford to rely on the Ulster Says No street campaign it adopted in 1985 in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. While loyalists tramped the streets of Ulster, the Dublin administration continued to enjoy its first real say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition via the Belfast Maryfield Secretariat.

Unionism will have to think ahead and box clever politically. If Stormont collapses permanently, Direct Rule from Westminster is the obvious solution.

But rather than the Northern Ireland Office be staffed by MPs from the current ruling Conservative administration, Unionists must campaign for the next Secretary of State and the team of ministers to come from Northern Ireland’s MPs - a situation which will pile pressure on Sinn Fein to take its Commons seats and abandon abstentionism if they want an NIO ministerial post.

What would be so wrong with Unionist and nationalist Westminster MPs from the Province running the NIO? This is akin to the integrationist policy pushed by the Ulster Unionists in the 1980s under the guidance of former leader James Molyneaux and former South Down MP Enoch Powell.

Unionism may be publicly ducking any debate on Irish Unity, but it must have a debate that if this election sinks Stormont like the iceberg sunk the Titanic, there is the very real possibility Unionism may have to swallow the bitter medicine of Joint Authority and Dublin having an even bigger say in the running of Northern Ireland than was ever envisaged under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement with the cross-border bodies.

In such a scenario with Stormont dead and buried, Joint Authority will be dressed up in fancy political rhetoric to hide its real purpose. Unionism must learn from its mistake of 1985.

The best way for Unionism to combat Dublin influence is for all the Unionist and Loyalist parties and groups to establish a Unionist Embassy in Leinster House, the heart of the Republic’s administration, to demand a say in the running of the 26 Southern counties.

If Dublin gets a say in Northern Ireland, Unionism returns the serve politically by exercising a say in the running of the Republic. If that becomes the outcome of Joint Authority, nationalists will drop the concept like a hot potato.

However, Protocol or no Protocol, Stormont or no Stormont, one scenario must be avoided by Unionism; that the Loyalist hardmen waiting in the wings do not say to the political parties - you had your turn through the ballot box at getting rid of the Protocol, now it is our turn through our methods.

In this respect, Unionism must not forget what happened in 1974. With the power-sharing Sunningdale Executive collapsing, Unionism had no workable alternative to replace it. Dublin put forward proposals at that time which were effectively Joint Authority by another name.

The consequence - the UVF exploded no warning bombs in Dublin and Monaghan, killing around 30 people and injuring hundreds more. Dublin immediately withdrew its proposals.

Unionism needs to acknowledge that a new generation of Loyalist is emerging for whom the successful ‘Chuckle Brothers’ power-sharing routine of the late Rev Ian Paisley and late Martin McGuinness are merely dates in history books.

Let’s be brutally honest - what is really at stake in this election is not merely the future of Stormont, the Protocol or even power-sharing; it is the very survival of democracy itself.

We can never forget the 3,000 plus who died in the Troubles; we must never insult the memory of those who brought us the peace process. Wise heads must ensure violence never returns as a consequence.

Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online

Unionism Needs To Outwit Direct Rule Or Joint Authority Plots

Dr John Coulter ✒  The starting gun has been fired on what will be the notorious ‘Ashtray Assembly’ poll of 2022!

Why ‘ashtray’? Because this Assembly election is about as useful to the Northern Ireland people as an ashtray on a motorbike! It will not solve the Protocol impasse, or restore the devolved institutions, or even protect the peace process or the Good Friday Agreement.

Even if the DUP manages to overturn Sinn Fein’s two-seat majority and emerge as the Assembly’s largest party, that’s no guarantee the DUP will trigger the election of Speaker or nominate a First Minister.

If both the Westminster establishment and the Brussels bureaucrats genuinely want to see fully functioning devolved government restored, then they must make up their minds which is the more important - saving the Protocol or saving the peace process? They can have one or other, but not both.

Put bluntly, for devolution to return to Stormont, the Protocol must go. It can either be done with a ‘cut the head off the snake’ approach and drastic measures to axe the Protocol within the next several weeks.

Or, Westminster and Brussels can agree a series of measures - namely the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ approach - which over the next several months effectively castrate the Protocol politically reducing its influence to a meaningless piece of paper.

But what if either strategy does not placate the DUP and Stormont faces the same political oblivion it did in 1972 - being permanently mothballed?

Unionism needs to have a Plan B up its sleeve for either Direct Rule or Joint Authority.

It cannot afford to adopt a 1974 approach when after the collapse of the Sunningdale Executive, Unionism relied on the force of numbers at the ballot box. Electorally, Unionism is now a minority ideology in Northern Ireland.

Likewise, it cannot equally afford to rely on the Ulster Says No street campaign it adopted in 1985 in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. While loyalists tramped the streets of Ulster, the Dublin administration continued to enjoy its first real say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition via the Belfast Maryfield Secretariat.

Unionism will have to think ahead and box clever politically. If Stormont collapses permanently, Direct Rule from Westminster is the obvious solution.

But rather than the Northern Ireland Office be staffed by MPs from the current ruling Conservative administration, Unionists must campaign for the next Secretary of State and the team of ministers to come from Northern Ireland’s MPs - a situation which will pile pressure on Sinn Fein to take its Commons seats and abandon abstentionism if they want an NIO ministerial post.

What would be so wrong with Unionist and nationalist Westminster MPs from the Province running the NIO? This is akin to the integrationist policy pushed by the Ulster Unionists in the 1980s under the guidance of former leader James Molyneaux and former South Down MP Enoch Powell.

Unionism may be publicly ducking any debate on Irish Unity, but it must have a debate that if this election sinks Stormont like the iceberg sunk the Titanic, there is the very real possibility Unionism may have to swallow the bitter medicine of Joint Authority and Dublin having an even bigger say in the running of Northern Ireland than was ever envisaged under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement with the cross-border bodies.

In such a scenario with Stormont dead and buried, Joint Authority will be dressed up in fancy political rhetoric to hide its real purpose. Unionism must learn from its mistake of 1985.

The best way for Unionism to combat Dublin influence is for all the Unionist and Loyalist parties and groups to establish a Unionist Embassy in Leinster House, the heart of the Republic’s administration, to demand a say in the running of the 26 Southern counties.

If Dublin gets a say in Northern Ireland, Unionism returns the serve politically by exercising a say in the running of the Republic. If that becomes the outcome of Joint Authority, nationalists will drop the concept like a hot potato.

However, Protocol or no Protocol, Stormont or no Stormont, one scenario must be avoided by Unionism; that the Loyalist hardmen waiting in the wings do not say to the political parties - you had your turn through the ballot box at getting rid of the Protocol, now it is our turn through our methods.

In this respect, Unionism must not forget what happened in 1974. With the power-sharing Sunningdale Executive collapsing, Unionism had no workable alternative to replace it. Dublin put forward proposals at that time which were effectively Joint Authority by another name.

The consequence - the UVF exploded no warning bombs in Dublin and Monaghan, killing around 30 people and injuring hundreds more. Dublin immediately withdrew its proposals.

Unionism needs to acknowledge that a new generation of Loyalist is emerging for whom the successful ‘Chuckle Brothers’ power-sharing routine of the late Rev Ian Paisley and late Martin McGuinness are merely dates in history books.

Let’s be brutally honest - what is really at stake in this election is not merely the future of Stormont, the Protocol or even power-sharing; it is the very survival of democracy itself.

We can never forget the 3,000 plus who died in the Troubles; we must never insult the memory of those who brought us the peace process. Wise heads must ensure violence never returns as a consequence.

Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online

13 comments:

  1. Your language reeks of panic John, like Hitlers last throw of the dice in Winter 1944 Belgium, last chance saloon. What you should be talking of is the best deal, rightly so, for the unionist and loyalist population in a united Ireland. Many in the unionist community are already talking of unification at some unspecified date in the future. Perhaps not so much in the loyalist section, yet, but when their reaction comes with further cuts in working-class living standards it may be brutal for loyalisms present leaders.

    Like the "Battle of the Bulge" you are looking for a political equivallent. Remember, it was your beloved British Government who signed the thing, put bluntly apart from perhaps a NATO position, they couldn't care less for the six counties.

    Caoimhin O'Muraile

    ReplyDelete
  2. John, support the campaign to #RejoinEU or at least for GB to rejoin Single Market and Customs Union so that there will be no need for customs borders in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.

    ReplyDelete
  3. A 50p Paddy Power special......

    The British SOS calls an election this week but to take place just after xmas, the cost of living bites harder, everyone is paying off xmas.....Bet is.............SF come out on top, Alliance finish second and because no one thought about "other" when the GFA was signed off almost 25 yrs ago they can't form a Government.....

    ReplyDelete
  4. " put bluntly apart from perhaps a NATO position, they couldn't care less for the six counties."

    The only place on the island which is of strategic use to NATO is Shannon Airport, which for years has been more or less an outpost for the US military. The number of troops which pass though it per year is measured in the tens of thousands.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The six counties, particularly the ports, are of huge importance to NATO. The British Army are also NATO troops with clear access to the Atlantic via the six counties. There is nothing new in this, its been clearly understood for decades. The US eastern seaboard can be monitored by whichever NATO force is in the six counties.

      Why you would wish to stay in the UK as second class Brits is beyond me, but that opinion must be taken into consideration as a section of the community obviously hold the UK dear.

      Caoimhin O'Muraile.

      Delete
  5. Terry you must be smokin' better weed than my Rasta friend can get me tax free or anyone else if they think along this line.......



    The only place on the island which is of strategic use to NATO is Shannon Airport,


    Have you ever thrown into your mix the MI5/6 annex just outside of Belfast?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think MI5 don't have other such bases throughout Britian? They will have every eventuality covered when it comes to operating logistics.

      Delete
  6. The six counties, or " Northern Ireland" are not a part of Britain and never have been. Part of the UK is not the same thing.

    Caoimhi O'Muraile

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The six counties, or " Northern Ireland" are not a part of Britain and never have been. Part of the UK is not the same thing"

      er... I am fully aware that it's the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland". That's why I said bases throughout Britain rather than elsewhere in the north. Britain as in England, Scotland and Wales....

      I hope this helps.

      Delete
    2. I am sure we are capable of holding a discussion without descending into pedantry

      Delete
  7. Terry,

    you think MI5 don't have other such bases throughout Britian? .

    I really have no idea how many MI5/6 offices there are in Britian but I do know there is one just outside Belfast...Then add into the mix Thales Air Defence (formely Shorts) that make weapons and computer parts for missels that are used in Ukraine today and at least 56 other armies on this rock. And if Scotland go it alone and breakaway from the UK, the nuclear submarine that is birthed there will be moved to just outside of Derry....I could go on but we both know I no need too.......

    only place on the island which is of strategic use to NATO is Shannon Airport,

    If you want to believe that Terry....Go ahead , just don't expect me to buy into your line of thought any time soon.....

    ReplyDelete
  8. You are confusing a private French and Canadian company, Thales Air Defence, with the British military. Thales Air Defence like another profit making company will go to where the cheapest qualified labour and highest government grants are available , in this case Belfast. Like you say they export to numerous companies, so not unless the UK military has a sideline in sales, they are not under the control of Downing Street.

    .
    And as for the naval base, Clyde, and the nuclear submarines located there, I am afraid you under estimate modern warfare and Britain’s strategic planning. The base is over 200 acres in size (that’s about 200 soccer pitches) so moving it to Derry is a non-starter in terms of land and sea port area required,. Besides France and the US were suggested as alternative locations if Scotland went it alone.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-plan-shows-uks-nuclear-24891071

    The reason I am going to this effort is to highlight the case that modern warfare has moved to a different level since the days when Ireland was of strategic importance to Britain.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Terry,

    You are confusing a private French and Canadian company, Thales Air Defence, with the British military.

    I am confusing nothing but I am struggling following your line of thought Terry. Thales Air Defence (formely Shorts) and the British, US and NATO's militaries, let's take a peek down that rabbit hole...From Wiki

    Thales Air Defence Limited (TADL), formerly Shorts Missile Systems (SMS), is a defence contractor based in Belfast, Northern Ireland, producing short range air defence missiles , in there they make parts for...Hellfire Built by Thales under licence from the United States for the Ministry of Defence. Hellfire is designed to defeat tanks and other individual targets while minimizing the exposure of the launch vehicle to enemy fire. (from the same Wiki link....)

    So not unless the UK military has a sideline in sales, they are not under the control of Downing Street.,

    I know the US asked Thales to build Hellfire missles for the British MOD and parts were and are being made in Belfast...Someone is making money, Is there a sideline? No idea...I know Hellfire missals can be launched from Predator drones, the sea or ground that NATO and the rest of the West use in illegal wars like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya...Israel's illegal occupation. the proxy war the West and Russia are waging against each other in Ukraine....

    I'll throw this into themix.... NATO SELECTS THALES TO SUPPLY ITS FIRST DEFENCE CLOUD FOR THE ARMED FORCES

    Parts of that system are made and tested in a Belfast 'factory'....And your line of thought about Thales paying anywhere from a dollar a day to a living wage, that makes about as much sense as NATO having no interest on the island outside of Shannon....

    Thales Air Defence like another profit making company will go to where the cheapest qualified labour and highest government grants are available , in this case Belfast.

    Thales Engineer Salaries in Belfast, Northern Ireland......(open the link and part reads..)

    The average salary for an Engineer is £32,602 per year in Belfast, Northern Ireland, which is 12% higher than the average Thales salary of £29,000 per year for this job.

    If you want to think they earn a dollar a day or even a living wage, be my guest....

    ReplyDelete