NATO is hiding behind the excuse that it will not put Allied boots officially on Ukrainian soil as it may provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons against Western forces.
However, the military reality is that whilst Ukrainian forces are putting up a brave struggle against the advancing Russians, ultimately Ukraine does not have the overall manpower and resources to push the Russians completely out of independent Ukraine.
The most the Ukrainian military can hope for is that in being invaded, it makes Russia pay a heavy price in blood for every inch of the country which is taken.
The key question which must now be asked - is there a military solution which will physically drive the Russians out of Ukraine, which does not in turn provoke a nuclear strike from Putin?
The answer may seem logistically simple - supply the Ukrainian forces with modern NATO equipment, but let the Ukrainian soldiers man the tanks; let the Ukrainian pilots fly the jets - and give the Ukrainian military tactical nuclear weapons.
Given the close geographical proximity of Ukraine to Russia, it would be the height of madness for Putin to use modern-day nuclear, chemical or biological weapons - perhaps more commonly known as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) - as the fallout from such terrible weapons would also affect Russian held territory.
This is not 1945 when the Americans could drop atomic bombs on two Japanese cities and not worry about the nuclear fallout affecting mainland United States.
Ukraine was once a nuclear power when the nation was part of the old communist Soviet Union. But after the fall of communism, the nukes were removed from Ukraine. So the West could create a nuclear ‘Mexican-style standoff’ with Putin by replacing Soviet nukes with NATO nuclear weapons, but the systems manned entirely by trained Ukrainian personnel.
As for British boots on Ukrainian soil, my well-placed military source claims Allied forces are already in Ukraine as ‘advisors’, but disguised as civilians and Ukrainian personnel.
This is operating in the same way that prior to the Vietnam War in South East Asia erupting in the 1960s, the United States was supplying equipment and ‘advisors’ to the under-pressure South Vietnamese regime against the communist North Vietnam.
In terms of supplying much-needed NATO equipment to the Ukrainian forces, this would operate in the same way that American supplied weaponry to the Contra rebels in Nicaragua fighting the communist Sandinista regime in South America.
That is one reason the so-called Russian blitzkrieg has been faltering. He said the Russians’ original plan to seize three airports has failed and this has meant the Russian cannot fly material in so they have to use this massive convoy system.
He said the convoy could be destroyed with air strikes given the way the convoy is organised - but not by NATO planes (in the same way that coalition forces attacked retreating Iraqi forces during the Gulf War). The plan would be to provide planes with Ukrainian pilots to do this.
The ante will be really go up if the Russians begin really heavy bombardment cities radically increasing the number of casualties. While publicly there will be no NATO troops in Ukraine, if the cities are destroyed with massive deaths, then NATO troops will have to cross the border into Ukraine.
The look on Putin’s two generals’ faces when the Russian President talked about nuclear weaponry showed shock. My source says the mobile nuclear vehicles have not yet moved from their original positions.
Russian troops were also told they were supposed to be welcomed as liberators, but have been shocked by the militant reaction from local Ukraine citizens. If Ukraine’s application to the European Union is fast tracked, this could place more pressure on Putin to back down, or at least begin serious peace talks.
There is the genuine suspicion that current peace talks between Russian and Ukraine are merely a smokescreen to allow Putin to rethink how he will supply his faltering invasion.
Ironically, the real worry is what US President Joe Biden will do. Even the dogs in the street know what Putin wants - to rebuild the Russian Empire and be the new Tsar of Eastern Europe.
But Biden - aka ‘Sleepy Joe’ - has political egg all over his face as a result of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, effectively handing that nation back to the Islamic militants of the Taliban.
Ukraine could be Biden’s ticket to vastly improve his ratings in the polls after his Afghanistan ‘retreat’, perceived by many folk across the globe as being a second Vietnam for the United States.
There are still many veterans in America who remember the scenes of US helicopters evacuating people from the then capital of the old South Vietnam in the mid 1970s, handing that nation over to the communist North Vietnam.
Ukraine is not the pushover campaign of Kuwait or Iraq. American mums will not want their sons and daughters dying or being wounded in Ukraine, no matter what banner - US or NATO - they fight under.
The horrific imagery of coffins coming back from Vietnam and Afghanistan is still an open wound politically in the United States.
Likewise, the pressure of Russian mums rounding on Putin when Russian sons and daughters return from Ukraine in coffins could be the equally horrific imagery which eventually persuades the Russian President to withdraw his forces.
If the West arms the Ukrainians, Russia’s so-called ‘invasion’ could deteriorate rapidly into a guerrilla war fight as the old Soviet Union faced in Afghanistan against the Taliban, or America faced in Vietnam against the Viet Cong.
In the meantime, with all eyes focused on Ukraine, has anyone heard of a thing called the Northern Ireland Protocol? It seems to have conveniently slipped off the political radar.
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
As much as I believe in the defence of Ukraine but arming its defence forces with tactical nuclear weapons would be criminally reckless folly.
ReplyDeleteAre you some kind of nut? Maybe you're on medication, some sort of tablets, but advocating nuclear war, even allowing for your condition, is not on.
ReplyDeleteCaoimhin O'Muraile
best to stick with playing the ball rather than the man
DeleteIs it a religious thing Caoimhin?
DeleteThats true Anthony, got a little carried away with the thought that somebody advocates nuclear weapons and their consequences. I don't fancy being nuked.
ReplyDeleteCaoimhin O'Muraile
I get the feeling Caoimhin and share the sentiment but as moderator I feel the need to prevent discussion going off in a direction that becomes more heat than light
Delete