Paul BewState Of The Union.


In 2016 Brexit destabilised Northern Irish politics. All the evidence suggested that it significantly increased Catholic support for a united Ireland. Some commentators insisted it had also created a middle-class Protestant constituency for unity, impressed by the modernising style of Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach.

But is Northern Ireland, as Tony Blair recently surmised, beginning to “settle down”? Today’s poll suggests that while things are finely balanced, a united Ireland is far from a done deal.

What happens next will depend, in part, on whether economic gravity pulls Belfast south or keeps it close to Britain. A key breakthrough in the withdrawal agreement talks in 2019 came when the Irish government decided it could live with two customs entities on the island of Ireland.

Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union and has unfettered access to the rest of the UK. This is why ministers reject the phrase “a border in the Irish Sea”, to the fury of the local media, which point out the array of checks on mainland goods going into Northern Ireland. A senior technician on the British side admits that “half a border” would be an accurate description.

Continue reading @ Sunday Times.

No Poll On United Ireland Yet, But Don’t Take The Northern Province For Granted

Paul BewState Of The Union.


In 2016 Brexit destabilised Northern Irish politics. All the evidence suggested that it significantly increased Catholic support for a united Ireland. Some commentators insisted it had also created a middle-class Protestant constituency for unity, impressed by the modernising style of Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach.

But is Northern Ireland, as Tony Blair recently surmised, beginning to “settle down”? Today’s poll suggests that while things are finely balanced, a united Ireland is far from a done deal.

What happens next will depend, in part, on whether economic gravity pulls Belfast south or keeps it close to Britain. A key breakthrough in the withdrawal agreement talks in 2019 came when the Irish government decided it could live with two customs entities on the island of Ireland.

Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union and has unfettered access to the rest of the UK. This is why ministers reject the phrase “a border in the Irish Sea”, to the fury of the local media, which point out the array of checks on mainland goods going into Northern Ireland. A senior technician on the British side admits that “half a border” would be an accurate description.

Continue reading @ Sunday Times.

10 comments:

  1. I am with Bertie Ahern on this one. I think 2028 is a possible date for a border poll. In the meantime move the customs checks for Ireland from Larne to Stranraer, let the paperwork be in order before boarding the ferry.

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    1. I don't see it as being before then.

      As I understand it the British secretary of state is obligated to call one if he thinks there is a chance of the status quo being reversed not because he thinks a lot of people want a border poll.
      I'll be 70 if still beyond the crematorium and will notice no difference!!

      Delete
  2. Mackers
    There needs to be some rationality on the side of nationalists on the border poll issue. If nationalists are pushing the line we been waiting 800 years then another 8 years won't do any harm. Scotland are pushing for Indiref2. I would prefer we Irish get it correct first time around.

    Ireland is a different scenario to Scotland in that Ireland was colonised and never liked it, Scotland joining the Union was consensual. The Labour Party in the UK has self destructed. No MPs worth talking about in Scotland and a 'Sir. leader' in England. They have lost the North of England as well as Scotland and represent no one but tepid Tory party wanabees. That is the SNP biggest hope for Indiref2 and the fact Tory boys did the dirty after Indiref1 with Brexit.

    The border poll here needs to be guaranteed a win and with the EU subsidies and majority voting 'remain' in the 6 counties (Norn Iron to Steve R) the focus needs to be on economic practicalities rather than nationalistic jingoism. 50+1 is NOT a good idea. Look at the USA of all places just now.

    The stars are somewhat aligned, there is no such thing as a Labour Party in the UK and with 'Sir. I am really a Tory' at the wheel they ain't getting elected before travel to Mars on Musk's rocket is a taken for granted day out. So, gently Bently and 2028 I say aim for that.

    Just try not to antagonise the Unionists too much. They probably fear the global celebrations more than any new reality within the EU with their GB rights protected.

    Steve R. will be able to say. It woz not the 'RA wot dunnit.... init...
    But it is coming.

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    1. Larry,

      If the Provos are gone then a huge roadblock for unification has gone away, but are they gone? Does the Army Council still rule the Shinners? Who is Ted Howell and what is his postion within the RM in particular, as it looks increasingly likely the Shinners will become British Govenors of the Wee 6 (that's for you Larry)? It's a 100 years since the creation of the State...will Republicans try a spectacular to keep the huns in check? While using an alphabetty 3 letter cover? And when the Shinners take FM position, how long before abstentionism in westminster is cast aside for $$$$$$$$?

      Answers on a postcard please, to Connoly house....

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  3. Larry - your call for restraint is admirable. But restraint can't be deference which you get anyway.
    50 + 1 is what it is. If parity of esteem means anything then then the vote of each individual nationalist or any citizen has to have equal weight to that of each individual unionist. If 50+1 is good enough to maintain the union then it should be good enough to end it.
    This is central to the GFA. If 50+1 were to be overturned, you can imagine the weight it would add to the the argument of those who claim armed campaigning is right as the ballot box no longer counts: one man one vote was reversed.
    The British Labour Party is pretty much a joke - a career structure for Starmer and his ilk rather than a body with any meaningful societal vision. It and the Tories are very much a case of Tweedledee Tweedledum

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    1. Anthony

      The Labour Party has no divine or natural right to exist. The problems in its "Red Wall" heartlands" had been storing up long before the electoral catastrophe of 2019 and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership (which was a symptom of its problems).

      The Labour Party needs a clear statement of values, identity and philosophy. But will such a statement placate its "traditional" voters and ex-voters in the North and Midlands of England and its liberal, cosmopolitan and diverse supporters in London and other major cities. Just as Andy Burnham warned Labour during the EU referendum that "it had to speak to Hull as well as Hampstead" so, in relation to the alarming report in today's Guardian that he intends to wrap Labour in the Union flag in order to win back the Red Wall seats, a frontbencher representing a seat in the north-west says "To get a majority in parliament Labour needs to win both Chipping Barnet and Bishop Auckland. At the moment, they're just appealing to Bishop Auckland".

      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/02/labour-urged-to-focus-on-flag-and-patriotism-to-win-voters-trust-leak-reveals?fbclid=IwAR3sEa2LVc0Oq1acHWJfDShboVyz9_1FhJXIUfKjiP0KEhF-e92IZQcpplA.

      Labour should make an unequivocal statement in favour of creating a more equal society along the lines advocated by party grandee Roy Hattersley.

      www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/labour-should-be-bold-and-declare-t

      Advocating greater Keynesian policies and for a greater role for the state could go down very well in the post-Covid era. Making the creation of a National Social Care Service and a commitment to ensuring that everyone has access to high quality broadband services should be vote winners at next GE.

      it is frustrating that, despite BJ's mendacity, bluster and winging it tendency, the Tory party remains at 40% in the polls and that he comes across as more relatable to the public than Starmer despite his competence at the dispatch box.

      But then there's nothing as queer as English folk.

      Delete
  4. Mackers
    50+1 in principal is fine. But for all practicalities it is akin to cutting off our nose to spite our faces. Stability is the desired end game I assume and economic prosperity?

    I don't see a border poll in the same terms as Celtic V Rangers where I can be a wee fucker for two hours and then go home. A border poll is much bigger than that and a lot more permanent than the latest result.

    If there is instability after a 50+1 then we are going to see young prods getting stacked on the conveyor belt by career RUC men to a regrettable criminal offence, that will follow them everywhere for life. I wish that shit on no ones kid.

    Jim Alister who should know better and other shit stirrers will care not a jot. I expect Alister will be prosecuting in the Dublin courts if not yet retired by 2028. That's what those vermin do.

    So, on a longer term, wait a little while 'til the result is more certain and reaction less likely to be crazy, then GET IT DONE!
    (couldn't resist that)

    As for UK Labour party, there's no such thing.

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  5. Steve R

    Provos are gone OK. There will be a border poll and if at the right time it will be the end game. Larne and East Belfast delinquent druggies may flare up but the RUC will slap them down I expect after a huge pay rise.

    Will the aged Unionist population after losing a border poll see any sense in a terror campaign? Amswers on a micro dot ... to Geofrey Donaldson.

    https://m.facebook.com/groups/466477634015125/permalink/701162627213290/

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  6. Anthony

    Can you put abridged version of this article on my Twitter feed? Thanks.

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