In tonight’s Pensive Quill, ex-Blanket columnist and Radical Unionist commentator, Dr John Coulter, says those branded as ‘dissident republicans’ should take heed of warnings not to drag the North back to the early 1970s – a period which witnessed bitter nationalist feuds.
Dissident republicans have clearly forgotten what befell the Official IRA in 1972 after the latter murdered an off-duty Catholic soldier in Derry. When the Officials murdered 19-year-old Ranger William Best of the Royal Irish Rangers, they did not believe it would start a backlash which would result in the OIRA having to call a total ceasefire eight days later.
Earlier this month, dissident republicans opposed to Stormont and Sinn Fein’s peace process killed a Catholic police officer in Omagh. The Tyrone market town was also the location for one of the worst massacres of the Troubles in 1998, when the dissident Real IRA killed 29 people in a no-warning car bomb.
This month, mainstream republican and unionist politicians walked side by side at the funeral of the murdered police officer. In modern Irish politics, imagery has become everything. In 1972, after Ranger Best’s murder, some 200 women from the Catholic Creggan and Bogside in Derry marched on the Official republican headquarters in the city.
Having interviewed sources from what has become branded by the media and political opinion as the ‘dissident republican movement’, it is clear the dissident republican terror campaign has a three-fold purpose. These are to de-stabilise the Stormont Parliament; stop Catholics from joining the police, and embarrass Sinn Fein by forcing republicans to condemn dissident attacks.
One poignant question always disturbs me when talking to such sources – are these dissidents living in a terrorist fantasy world, believing they are akin to the Viet Cong guerrillas and North Vietnamese Army driving the Americans out of Saigon in the mid 1970s? As the last American helicopters were retreating from the South Vietnamese capital, the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army kept on firing at them. Do dissidents see themselves as blazing away with their AK47 assault rifles at Larne and Belfast harbours as ferries carrying the last police officers, Protestant refugees and Unionist politicians sail down Belfast Lough or across the Irish Sea?
Unlike Sinn Fein, which believed in a political process operating alongside a terror campaign, the dissidents believe there must first be a military victory over the British and unionists before a political solution can be implemented. This has never happened in Irish history, not even when the Treaty talks were being planned during the War of Independence.
But the dissident campaign is starting to have the opposite effect in Irish politics. Rather than driving a wedge between the nationalist community and the police, it is uniting mainstream republican and unionist in a common cause – rooting out the various dissident factions.
Politically, the most that the dissident terror campaign can hope for is additional electoral support from unionist voters for the anti-power sharing Traditional Unionist Voice party led by former DUP MEP Jim Allister. There is still a section of Protestant thinking which would grumble at the sight of DUP First Minister Peter Robinson attending the funeral mass for a murdered Catholic police officer.
The Provisional IRA was nudged into the peace process as a result of losing key operatives in shoot-outs with the security forces, such as the Loughgall ambush in the 1980s when eight top members of the IRA’s feared East Tyrone Brigade were wiped out.
Sooner, rather than later, dissident republican leaders must realise they have to negotiate with the British and Irish governments. Militarily, the dissidents will not be defeated in Loughgall-style ambushes by the SAS. That could only lead to young militant nationalists swelling the ranks of the various dissident terror gangs.In 1972, in the aftermath of Bloody Sunday in Derry in which 14 innocent Catholics were killed by the Paras, the ranks of the fledgling Provos were also swelled.
The dissidents will be defeated when people from the nationalist community give the police the necessary intelligence the PSNI needs to bring these terrorists before the courts.
However, there is the real danger the dissident campaign could spark a second Irish Civil War, which saw republican kill republican. The history of the present Troubles is littered with bloody internecine feuds within republicanism. The Provisionals have fought the Officials; the Officials have fought the INLA; the INLA has imploded as the various factions butchered each other. In late October 1992, the Provos used hundreds of members and supporters to attack people linked to a breakaway republican faction, the Irish People’s Liberation Organisation, on the grounds the IPLO was heavily involved in drug-dealing. One IPLO member was killed and several others wounded. Within a week of the Provo attacks, the IPLO disbanded.
Officially, the Provisional IRA no longer exists. But if the dissident campaign continues to endanger Sinn Fein’s peace strategy, there is the prospect republicans loyal to mainstream thinking may retaliate against the dissident groupings on a ‘no claim, no blame’ basis. In the Irish Civil War of the 1920s, former republican comrades slaughtered each other in some of the most notorious incidents in Irish history.
Irish political, religious and community leaders have stressed they do not want the dissidents to drag the island back to the bloodbath days of the 1970s. While dissidents may try to increase political temperatures by disrupting either the royal wedding or the Queen’s visit to the Republic, the chances of sectarian conflict – even with the loyalist marching season approaching – are slender.
But what is a distinct possibility is vicious inter-republican blood-letting. That would be a case of dragging the island back to the 1970s.
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Dr. Coulter
ReplyDelete"The dissidents will be defeated when people from the nationalist community give the police the necessary intelligence the PSNI needs to bring these terrorists before the courts".
And then what Dr. Coulter? Everything will be fine? In the past 13 years, since the Stormont Agreement, there appears to have been very few “dissident” incidents of any magnitude outside of the first Omagh bombing in 1998 and last week's attack. However, the status-quo in the 6 counties has remained unchanged? There are politically motivated arrests of republicans, the continuation of British diplock courts, criminalization and marginalization of republicans who verbally, but politically, challenge the status-quo; and little hope for a reunited Ireland free of British rule?
What if the British government showed a little good faith for a change and brought to justice those responsible for the Dublin-Monaghan bombings and the Bloody Sunday massacre for starters? Those gestures alone could possibly have some positive influence on ‘dissenters’ as it would show that the British justice system is not just one-sided, as it usually is, when it comes to republicans. What if PSF stopped their silent, but insidious, campaign to silence republicans who don’t agree with them (i.e., Gerry McGeough to mention one?).
“Officially, the Provisional IRA no longer exists. But if the dissident campaign continues to endanger Sinn Fein’s peace strategy, there is the prospect republicans loyal to mainstream thinking may retaliate against the dissident groupings on a ‘no claim, no blame’ basis. In the Irish Civil War of the 1920s, former republican comrades slaughtered each other in some of the most notorious incidents in Irish history”.
No disrespect intended Dr. Coulter, but is this article intended to give the Provos food for thought?
John I think there,s a very distinct possibility that if the dissident movements up the ante and start to become effective in their operations and sort out their internal security, then the brits may unleash their latest weapon ie,the prm, using either no blame or working in tandem with loyalist paramilitaries,the only problem with this is that Adams and co will then have to keep their heads well down which will be ok for the top teir, but those on the ground would be much more exposed to what as you quite rightly describe as vicious bloodletting,,I hope Adams thinks long and hard before he puts his people in harms way by doing the brits dirty work for them one thing for sure is that he,ll be kept well off side, that is untill a camera team shows up,the dissidents need to think where their activities are taking them and look at the possibility that they will be forced into a feud whether they want to or not,but if republican history runs true to form then its a question of not if but when.
ReplyDeleteThe Provo 'peace' was always dubious, because it was not based on principle, but only self-interest.
ReplyDeleteThey have always been prepared to kill for the 'peace process'. More fool those who let them get away with this.
Machiavelli is alive and well and now in Leinster House.
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ReplyDeletemarty,
ReplyDeletegood points, but a horrifying thought about republican "bloodletting".
Mr. Coulter
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, there was no such thing as the "Viet Cong" (the Yanks made that name up to scare people), it was the Viet Minh! Why do you use the word "murdered" when referring to the cop, and "killed" when referring to the victims of "Bloody Sunday"? I agree with both Helen and Marty. Are you trying to egg people on to do something, which in your logic, would be outside the "law"?
I think Dr. Coulter writes more in hope than in objectivity. Any fued that was going to happen would have happened a long time ago before people became anethetised to the entire 'peace' is sacred gunk.
ReplyDeleteDissidents will not get to a stage where they will cause this fracture in the nationalist community, they don't have the calliber of volunteers or the discontent of 50yrs of unionist nazi rule to fuel them.
Also, i very much doubt provo's are up to speed, after 20yrs they're as rusty as the sticks used to be accused of being.
Dream on Dr. Coulter. Biggest issue is WHY didn't Adams stand aside when defeated and let the SDLP get on with it. Instead he continues to shame 800 yrs of patriots for a seat in the den of thieves in Dublin.
Dr Coulter
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting your views here. I only consider your assertions, as you can, in the role of an observer of both camps of Republican thinking.
However it occurs to me that you fail to give due regard to any role that might be expected from British Securocrats. In light of what occured in the 1970's this would be a relevant factor in all of what you say above.
We now know that a Loyalist bomb intended for s Stickies bar was used to blowup McGurks Bar with horrendous consequences. In another Loyalist attack, a bomb was denoted at a Stickies Easter Parade in Beachmount Avenue --again with same purpose of formenting a bitter Republican feud. In both cases the Security Forces were involved, if, in no other way than to ensure that the Loyalist bombers escaped and confusion about motive ensued.
Tiarna
What a strange attempt at a parallel re Vietcong aka Viet Nimh as Belfast git pointed out. To addin there is still many old and young in Vietnam who would spit on your usage of their suffering as some sort of arsed analogy. The divide and conquer strategies of America is not forgotten... That past propaganda machine warning the people of their own people and pitting them one against the other... (ie) "Traitors! We will find you Beware!" and so on and so forth...
ReplyDeleteNB Sounds familiar don’t it that rhetoric so familiar... O and you are referring to the American War not VN war...
RE: ‘As the last American helicopters were retreating from the South Vietnamese capital, the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army kept on firing at them.’
Equals good enough by me because Agent Orange lives on and on Bullshit walks and money talks. You might like to revisit the history of VN before you attempt to use it as an analogy...
RE: ‘The dissidents will be defeated when people from the nationalist community give the police the necessary intelligence the PSNI needs to bring these terrorists before the courts.’
All non pyschopaths abhor the killing of any human being. IMO there will NOT ever be a queue wanting or willing to blab all to a corrupt system even if they had something to blab. Naive spin and not a remedy. Who is the real terrorist and who sold the people out? Answer that and you got all the answers you need.
RE: There is the real danger the dissident campaign could spark a second Irish Civil War, which saw republican kill republican.
grunts with grunt and whipupafrenzy of fear and coercion to conceding the way things are compromised is better be what that statement is saying... NB The powers that be are killing, incarcerating and in more ways than one NOT the so called dissident republicans. It be clever what the media machine and the sycophants are doing admittedly but only a willing half wit would be deceived by the ploys... This is a different era but the grievances,anger and actualised rage? Because divide and conquer be at work per usual... Do you really think Adams and company give a toss about the little people on the ground and lives being lost? They have sat by watching and colluding in taking down republicans and continue to negate any opposing voices spurred on by the appealing to the masses singing the toon - Peace at all costs
and cost it has... cost ongoing... The climate of poverty/unemployment will also up the ante of militant action occurring but the primary motivator is the anger at the deceit imo... Sad inevitable outcomes will keep repeating just like lies of the media and powers that be. Vicious circle...
• There be a Vietnamese saying translated as There is nothing so happy as our country united. And still in Vietnam you will hear the people proudly sing their songs of who they are as one people united. Not that VN is a utopia but they got it right so right uniting their country... All the sorrows and losses are bearable when a nation is united because the blood on the ground has been heard and honoured...
* Civil War hardly but definitely there will be ongoing incidents and killings... Hideously inevitable... The curse has been passed on to the next generation courtesy of Adams and Co.
I detect an element of self prophecy in Dr Coulter's piece. Perhaps he prefers the idea of republicans fighting one another to having to support the increasing use of repressive laws against the 'dissidents'.
ReplyDeleteHe draws on historical precedents to illustrate his point without attempting to fully explain the dynamics that produced internecine conflict between republicans. Every example he cites had one characteristic in common i.e. the movement experienced a major fracture at a critical juncture. The politics aside, this factor more than any other precipitated bitter feuding between republicans. In each instance the parent organisation attacked its unwanted spawn hoping to strangle it at birth. And every time it failed.
This time it has been different because of the Machiavellian maneuvering of the Adams cabal. In the aftermath of the GFA the PRM experienced a number of splits, but it was more a shedding of leaves rather than the breaking of branches. At no time did any breakaway factions pose a big enough threat to the leadership strategy to warrant a military response. The problem McKevitt posed was neutralized when a RIRA bomb killed 30 innocent people in Omagh. Had it been otherwise history may have taken a different course.
Adams and McGuinness would be foolish to take such a risk now. Why would they? The smart thing to do is to leave it to the Brits to sort out the problem, with a little help. Even though oppositional republicanism is fragmented it is numerically stronger and more complex. Sinn Fein other the other hand is totally vulnerable.
The nationalist/republican community would not tolerate another feud with blood on the streets. Anyone contemplating such a course of action would need to think twice before firing the first shot. Are we to kill one another over the crumbs of the master's table?
sure the provies couldnt fight a civil war, didnt they give away all their guns! LOL
ReplyDeleteAlec,
ReplyDeleteWell said!
belfastgit
ReplyDeleteWell said Alec, Adams and co. are still spinning the yarn that they are under theat from so-called "dissidents" (God help them!). They obviously underestimated the intelligence of the so-called "dissident" groups, i.e. the Brits would love to see Republicans shooting Republicans and the so-called "dissidents won't play ball! Though, in my opinion, Adam's et al are NOT Republicans!
Helen,
ReplyDeleteThis piece did not strike me in any way as John Coulter trying to give the Provos food for thought. There is always the danger as Alec pointed out that it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But this is a long way off intent. I think it was fair comment on the part of John even if I think some of the critique of the piece has been solid.