It is all over now bar the voting. Tomorrow, after the gangs of politicians have gathered the votes and counted the booty, there will be a new government. Its popularity will last about a month and then it will be back to much the same as we have known for the last lot of years. Harsh measures lie ahead and the Fine Gael led government will be howled at with the same vitriol as the previous Fianna Fail led one, the carp rather than the harp now being the national symbol. Nothing else for it when the political class screws the country into the ground.
I still don’t know if I’ll vote. For the most part it will be determined by how tired I am after work. There isn’t a lot to choose between. We will still be in hock to the IMF and the ECB this time tomorrow night, next week, next year. If I do make it out the door it will only be to vote for something to the left of whatever there is. That leaves even less to choose from. Left here is relative. What might be called left in Ireland would easily slot into the right in many other Western societies. If there is anybody standing from the United Left Alliance, they will get the vote if cast. Failing that it will probably be Labour given that there is some association with a left perspective.
What will make me hold my nose if I vote Labour is the certain knowledge that it will go into government with Fine Gael. I would feel much happier if the vote was to go towards a party that would form part of the opposition. This society stands to gain more from strong opposition rather than strong government. We saw how the failure of previous opposition allowed Fianna Fail to destroy the economy and send its citizens down the plughole of destitution.
Fianna Fail are certain to be in opposition but there is no chance of voting for them. One firm motive for making the trip to the polling station is to use the ballot paper as a red card to thrust in their faces. The Greens will get no vote either. They hardly deserve it after they abandoned everything for a taste of power. Then they might not even get any seats and would then fail to make it to the opposition benches in any event.
Sinn Fein will end up in opposition. But if the electoral arithmetic were to work out in a certain way the party would jump into coalition with Fine Gael. While individual Sinn Fein candidates in some constituencies would be worthy of a vote, the party grassroots has failed totally to curb the megalomania of its leader. Fine Gael know they would get a better deal from a small Sinn Fein partner than they ever would from a larger Labour partner. Enda Kenny would have fewer cabinet seats to dole out and he would also realise that the Sinn Fein leader will jettison the party for a taste of power.
As the wag might say people are fed up being told the truth about the terrible state of the country. They want lies and Adams is the man to tell them. A dark dawn awaits.
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Do you know Anthony that blog made me feel really sorry for Ireland and its people,the people never have had any real say or power in that state and now they have even less if thats at all possible, as Larry has said earlier those gombeen men have screwed the life out of the country with jobs and perks for the boyos, now it looks like the boat and plane and mass migration facing our young once again,while those bastards rearrange the deck chairs in the Dail and as you say in a month or so the dirty dance will resume,I am sorry that no one organised a mass or nationwide boycott of these elections,it may have sent a message loud and clear that the people have had enough of being screwed.
ReplyDeleteMichaelHenry,
ReplyDeleteJust want to jump in here and ask your predictions for number of seats. I know we don't sing from the same hymn sheet anymore but curious to know. The last prediction I read was something in the region of 14 seats, doubt if she'll be that high though
MartyDownUnder-
ReplyDeleteI hear its around 14 also- but at the risk of getting a bit of banter
on the Quill when the results come out i will say that Sinn Fein can end up with 15 seats in the dail
I was around a few areas canvassing
there is no doubt about the anger at the doors but where that anger actually goes will soon be seen
One odd thing i noticed around navan was when Sinn Fein had teams
doing the doors along came johnny
foreigner [ not his fault ] handing
fianna fail leaflets through letter
box's, probably paid minimum wage to do so.
if SF do get double figures this time it will be interesting to see if they get a sniff of office will they do a 'greens'. Also, will be good to watch FF squirm. Bring it on for entertainment value. Pitty Adama+mi6 marty sour it all.
ReplyDeleteNow that we have the exit poll figures, FG 36 Lab 20 ind 15 FF 15 sf 10, ( all approx)Sinn Fein could have 14 or 15 seats. that's a major leap forward but bearing in mind the collapse of FF and the terrible economic state it really establishes SF as possibly having reached their threshold and as not being seen as a party of government.
ReplyDeleteIndependents on 15% will probably have a major effect on seats as many of them are eliminated and the final destination of FF votes will be vital too as many of their candidates are single candidates and so their votes will come strongly into play after elimination.Much of the independent vote will be a protest vote and SF might have hopes of picking up a reasonable share while not too many of the FF voters may transfer to them.
Going to be an interesting day for those of us daft enough to take an interest instead of getting out in the sun.
Marty,
ReplyDeleteit would make you feel sorry because people went about their lives innocently and had faith in the political class. It screwed them.
Larry,
If SF fail to get double figures it will be a calamity for them. Adams will lie about it and spin it as a great victory but people will intuit what he is at.
Jim,
nice to see the calcs. it was also nice to leave a blank space beside the box for Minister for the Disappeared when we voted last night
michaelhenry will be having a happy day. Good for him. This may well be SF at their peak, next election will be interesting, i'll check it from Japan!
ReplyDeleteMackers,
ReplyDeleteit looks like the Master is due to top the poll in Louth, the heavies amongst the shinners are arriving in force.
I feel sorry for the people also and I also feel sorry for the people up here.
Maybe if the people in Louth could have visualised what he was running from cape fluttering in the wind they may have thought twice.
Larry,
ReplyDeletethey will do as the Greens did. Unless the southern section of the party can assert itself the right wing Northern perspective will trump. And it does not look good. With Mary Lou in Adams is moving to fashion the South in his own image. If FG offered a place to SF in government Adams would take it and any opposition to him would be met with 'Bobby, beat them.'
Nuala,
the saving grace for Louth is that they don't have to rely on him alone. Thanks to PR for that. Otherwise he would leave the place like the wasteland West Belfast is. What will he develop in Louth apart from the secret graves industry?
my favourite moment of election 2011
ReplyDeleteVincent Brown coverage...Garret Fitzgerald to Adams:
'I really admire your political skill, i mean that. It's very skillful what you have done. I really admire that, you have taken your party and turned it around to do the opposite of what it set out to do. There was a lot of political skill in that'.
Adams thanked him...priceless. Why arent more journalists putting it up to Adams like that in our 'free' media society?
2nd highlight.
Luke 'MING' Flanagan getting elected and taking a 50% pay cut before he left the count centre.
Oireachtas report may be worth watchin in the coming weeks.
Larry priceless Fitzgerald only told it as it is and the lig admitted it,its a pity the party members couldnt see it as clearly as that.or maybe the carpet baggers can,!
ReplyDeleteMackers,
ReplyDeleteMaybe they view him as some sort of latter day St Anthony (no pun intended)
Having the ability to perform the odd miracle, and having the power to unearth things that are lost, misplaced or buried.
The bearded one was being interviewed on RTE a wee while ago,and he was asked would he stand over the IRA and his reply was "no and I never have "and then he informs us that there will be elections in the north on the date of Bobby Sands death,typical of the two faced bastard that he is ,he will use the death of an icon and popular IRA man for his political advancement but deny the volunteers that took part in the disapeared,who according to many he was the main man behind this dark period of republican history,and to think Judas got a bad name, the euphoria that psf is exhibiting over the election results is imo way out of line with their actual performance,had they been a small,indepent party,with limited funds then that result would be a result worthy of celebration,but for a well funded possibly the richest party in the country and maybe futher afield with the manpower that psf has at its disposal and given the situation that the country finds itself in and the cicumstances around this election, well if I was still a member of that party then I for one would be stating that this was like taking a penalty at an open goal and missing.
ReplyDeletePut in context i suppose you could say FF being tsunami'd and in danger of 'dissappearing' and still getting more seats than SF is hardly revolutionary for Adams+co.
ReplyDeleteNot a great return for all the unnecessary 'burning' and betrayal of old comrades and principles.
Spot on Marty and Larry, with all their resources (are they not the richest party in the country?) they should've done better than they did. It would appear that they got feck all transfers, still a political pariah in most eyes then. The Fitzgerald thing is pure gold!
ReplyDeletemartydownunder
ReplyDeleteaye, and gerry going to push the wee baldy Monaghan guy outa the big picture now after all his time in the Dail.
Given that capitalism collapsed in 2008 and had to be rescued by governments, it is astounding that the left have not done better in this election. When will there be a better opportunity? I'm sure Michael Henry will be happy with between 13 and 15 seats for Sinn Fein, but, given the economic catastrophe and the decimation of Fianna Fail, the result is not that impressive.
ReplyDeleteAlfie-
ReplyDeleteYou say that the Sinn Fein result is not that impressive-
This was not just an election between Sinn Fein and fianna fail-
there were a lot of other partys and independents on the ballot papers also
one other thing- i can't remember
anyone else on the Quill saying who else they would definitely support before the election- not that they had to
This rise shows us the quality of the Adams and McGuinness leadership
lets Green All Ireland
michaelhenry,
ReplyDeleteWhere was the quality of their leadership here in the North?
Their legacy here is dire! The only people to benefit from Adams and Mc Guinness was Adams and McGuinness.
They won't rock any boats in the South, like Clegg they'll do what they're told.
Mickeyboy I,m off to Amsterdam and when I,m over there I,m gonna get those cakes you must be munching on mo cara, to see that 10% of the vote as a major election victory is a sure sign that either you are on the Bob Hope or the bearded one has walked on your head ,how can you call that a great result never mind the quality of leadership from those two clowns,independents have taken at least 15.5 % of the vote put this against the psf tally and with all the wealth and manpower at the bearded ones disposal and I for one cant see what was so good with that result.not in the least impressed by their leadership qualities mo cara.
ReplyDelete