Dr John Coulter ✒ with the UK waiting to get its third Prime Minister this year, as well as the nation having four Tory Chancellors in as many months, U-turns being the order of the day, and even more gossip concerning a potential General Election, and with Friday’s resignation of the ‘apologetic’ now ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss, is the Conservative party in crisis following the DUP when that party found itself in a leadership crisis with three leaders in as many months? While the clock is ticking steadily in Northern Ireland towards a much-mooted, but not wanted, Stormont General Election in mid-December, the crisis-a-day Conservative party has taken a leaf out of the DUP’s leadership manual by staging yet another coup against current incumbent PM Liz Truss.
Ironically, the date set for a new British Prime Minister and Tory Party boss to be in place is Friday 28th October - the same date as Northern Ireland parties have been given to form a new power-sharing Executive or face a potential Stormont General Election.
That could mean Northern Ireland voters facing three trips to the polling booths in six months - a Stormont poll, a Westminster General Election, and next May’s local government elections.
For decades, the DUP managed never - unlike the rival Ulster Unionist Party - to air its dirty political linen in public. Then out of the blue, that rock-solid screen from the Paisleyite era slipped and we witnessed the unbelievable - three DUP bosses in as many months.
First, Arlene Foster (a former UUP MLA) was toppled by the traditional Paisleyite fundamentalist wing under the banner of Edwin Poots (his late father was a founder member of the party). At least Truss lasted longer in her top post than Poots did as DUP boss!
Days later, the modernist wing (mainly influenced by former UUP supporters) staged a lightning coup against the Paisleyite originals and Sir Jeffrey Donaldson (a former UUP MP, now DUP MP for Lagan Valley), was installed as DUP supremo.
But as the deadline of 28th October looms in a few days’ time when, if there is no appointment of an Assembly Speaker, leading to the creation of a power-sharing Executive and ultimately the restoration of a fully functioning devolved Assembly, the Northern Ireland Secretary of State (whoever that might be by Friday!) is obliged under legislation to unveil a date for yet another Stormont General Election - the second this year after May’s initial poll.
If a December Stormont showdown is on the cards, what happens if the DUP’s gamble of targeting at least three Alliance-held seats to overturn Sinn Fein’s two-seat majority over the DUP doesn’t pay off and the Provisional IRA’s political mouthpiece returns with an even greater majority over the DUP?
Could that spell the end of the Donaldson leadership with the top post swinging back to the original Paisleyite faction within the party? There’s even speculation DUP2022 is not only controlled by the Paisleyite faction, but also seems to have adopted the ideological stance of the UUP1986 under the leadership of the late James Molyneaux and the former late South Down UUP MP Enoch Powell, who were both staunch integrationists and firmly believed power should rest with Westminster, not a devolved set-up in Northern Ireland.
If the DUP returns after a supposed December Stormont poll as the largest party, will its MLAs troop into Parliament Buildings with its hands firmly on the First Minister’s position?
What happens if that December poll returns the same May outcome - Sinn Fein as the largest party, with the DUP trailing in a poor second? Would the DUP still refuse to appoint that much-needed new Speaker? Indeed, would the Westminster Club of DUP representatives be prepared to sacrifice Stormont completely, risking a return to Direct Rule (even joint authority with Dublin) if the Northern Ireland Protocol is not scrapped?
If the next British PM cannot deliver on the Protocol, their own premiership may - yet again - be in jeopardy as the battle for the heart and soul of the Tory Party at Westminster seems to continue unabated.
Just as the losing Donaldson camp within the DUP orchestrated a coup against the winning Poots camp, could the losing Tory leadership candidate’s supporters of Rishi Sunak be plotting to seize power in time to mark the anniversary of the 5th November Gunpowder Plot? In short, who is the new Guy Fawkes of the Conservatives at Westminster?
Is all the gossiping behind last Friday’s anti-Truss coup really being sparked by Tory MPs with wafer-thin constituency majorities anxious about losing their seats should the next PM lose a vote of confidence in the Commons and be forced into a snap Westminster General Election?
Or, is it really about who wields the power within the Tory Party at Westminster - the influential backbench 1922 Committee of MPs, or the hardliners in the staunch Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) faction?
Given the size of the Tory majority which former PM Boris Johnson delivered at the last General Election, the 1922 Committee would obviously contain MPs who would be liberal in their Conservative outlook, compared to the more hardline stance of MPs associated with the ERG.
Perhaps it is a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’ and those MPs who hatched plots to unseat both Johnson and Truss as PM are now regretting their actions.
But has the position of PM now become a political poisoned chalice? Who in the Conservative party would want the post, especially if opinion polls are predicting a Tory meltdown at a future General Election?
Like the Donaldson camp, does the Sunak camp see Truss’s downfall as a chance to get its man into 10 Downing Street? Could that campaign be thwarted by a campaign by Ben Wallace or Jeremy Hunt, even though both MPs have hinted strongly they do not seek the PM’s keys? Is it time for smooth-talking Jacob Rees-Mogg, another darling of the Tory Right, to finally enter the fray?
Political clocks may be ticking, but one thing is certain - the political blood-letting within both the Tory and Democratic Unionist parties is not over yet. Watch this space and roll on this Friday!
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