In 2016 Brexit destabilised Northern Irish politics. All the evidence suggested that it significantly increased Catholic support for a united Ireland. Some commentators insisted it had also created a middle-class Protestant constituency for unity, impressed by the modernising style of Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach.
But is Northern Ireland, as Tony Blair recently surmised, beginning to “settle down”? Today’s poll suggests that while things are finely balanced, a united Ireland is far from a done deal.
What happens next will depend, in part, on whether economic gravity pulls Belfast south or keeps it close to Britain. A key breakthrough in the withdrawal agreement talks in 2019 came when the Irish government decided it could live with two customs entities on the island of Ireland.
Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union and has unfettered access to the rest of the UK. This is why ministers reject the phrase “a border in the Irish Sea”, to the fury of the local media, which point out the array of checks on mainland goods going into Northern Ireland. A senior technician on the British side admits that “half a border” would be an accurate description.
But is Northern Ireland, as Tony Blair recently surmised, beginning to “settle down”? Today’s poll suggests that while things are finely balanced, a united Ireland is far from a done deal.
What happens next will depend, in part, on whether economic gravity pulls Belfast south or keeps it close to Britain. A key breakthrough in the withdrawal agreement talks in 2019 came when the Irish government decided it could live with two customs entities on the island of Ireland.
Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union and has unfettered access to the rest of the UK. This is why ministers reject the phrase “a border in the Irish Sea”, to the fury of the local media, which point out the array of checks on mainland goods going into Northern Ireland. A senior technician on the British side admits that “half a border” would be an accurate description.
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