Showing posts with label Emmanuel Macron. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Emmanuel Macron. Show all posts
Cam Ogie ✍ ‘volunteering as a lifeguard after everyone has already dried off and gone home.’

It is hard to imagine a more illogical or idiotic proposal than the recent suggestion from Keir Starmer (a prime ministerial equivalent of a fire extinguisher in a glass case labelled: “Break Only When It’s Too Late.”) and Emmanuel Macron (enthusiasm on parade, strategy on holiday) that European troops described as a ‘coalition force of the willing’ or more precisely the Grand Alliance of Strategic Loitering without Intent, could be deployed to Kyiv after a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. At face value, it sounds bold; on inspection, it collapses under its own contradictions. Together, they promise Europe can rest easy knowing that when danger passes, help is finally on its way.

First, the idea effectively puts the cart before the horse. If the war has ended, then the military phase is, by definition, over. What purpose would “boots on the ground” serve once there is no fighting to stop? Peacekeepers in occupied territories have a rationale, but deploying NATO-country troops into the capital of a sovereign state that is not occupied would be redundant at best, provocatively symbolic at worst. If Starmer and Macron believe a physical presence is necessary for Ukraine’s security, the logical moment to propose it would have been before or during the war—not when it is already hypothetically over.

This raises the obvious question: if they consider troop deployment so vital to Ukraine’s safety, why do they not do it now? The answer is very simple: they know the risk. They know full well that Russia has already warned that the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil would constitute a direct act of war. Moscow has explicitly linked such a scenario to nuclear escalation. Starmer and Macron, then, appear to be proposing a policy they know will never be implemented in practice. It is theatre masquerading as strategy.

There is also a disturbing strategic absurdity embedded in their rhetoric: suggesting deployment after a ceasefire would do nothing to deter Russia when it matters—during the war. Worse still, by talking irresponsibly about postwar deployments, they risk undermining conditions for peace itself, giving Moscow arguments that NATO has designs on using Ukraine as a forward operating position. Whether this fear is justified or not is secondary to the fact that it is politically powerful. Diplomats should be de-escalating that narrative, not feeding it.

The entire suggestion smells of symbolism at the expense of diplomacy. It is a bizarre inversion reminiscent of trying to move the rubble of the Berlin Wall. Instead of building new structures of division, Starmer and Macron would be better served trying to build bridges for a diplomatic outcome that prevents Europe from sliding into a generations-long confrontation.

Finally, the tired claim that Russia harbour’s ambitions to conquer Europe must be challenged by evidence rather than emotion. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s sphere of influence in Europe has not expanded; it has shrunk dramatically. What has expanded, quite aggressively and by its own open admission, is NATO, moving steadily eastward since 1991. One can condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine without rewriting history into a simplistic morality tale about a supposed masterplan to march to Berlin.

If anything, the reckless rhetoric coming from European leaders reveals a deeper problem: Western policymakers are increasingly performing security rather than practicing it. Dramatic statements replace real diplomacy. Threats replace negotiations. Theatrics replace strategy.

Starmer and Macron do not need to send troops to Kyiv. They need to stop posturing and start talking about peace in a way that does not make peace harder to achieve.

If Europe were invaded by a herd of politely angry goats, this duo would respond with:

  • Macron: “Send cavalry immediately… after they leave.”
  • Starmer: “Let’s set up a commission to examine the goats’ legal status.”

So yes, European soldiers marching into Kyiv after peace is declared would be historic — historically pointless.

Let’s hope our EU / Brexit leaders spend less time preparing dramatic entrance music, and more time actually preventing the war from dragging on forever.

After all, nobody wants a sequel.

⏩ Cam Ogie is a Gaelic games enthusiast. 

Moving The Rubble Of The Berlin Wall

Dr John Coulter ✒ With French President Emmanuel Macron taking a ‘right pasting’ in the National Assembly elections, could British PM Boris Johnson take advantage of this ‘slap in the teeth’ to become the new power broker in Ukraine?

If we thought the Northern Ireland Assembly had deep divisions over the Protocol, spare a thought for politically battered French President Emmanuel Macron whose centrist party and policies have just taken the mother of all hammerings in elections to France’s National Assembly.

Essentially, the Macron bubble has finally burst in spite of winning an impressive second Presidential term comfortably again defeating his Far Right rival Marine Le Pen of the National Rally party (formerly the National Front).

Just as it will require a political miracle to kick-start the Northern Ireland Assembly as the DUP firmly refuses to budge on the Protocol and is firmly digging in its heels on not nominating a Speaker, so too, with big gains in the French National Assembly for both the Far Left and Far Right, Macron has become a lame-duck leader and will require a miracle ‘rainbow coalition’ if he is to keep what was previously a rock solid majority in the French National Assembly.

Given the massive boost for the Far Right - up from less than 10 seats to almost 90 - it fuels the perception that his Presidential victory was not so much ‘we want more of Macron’, but the bitter reality of ‘vote Macron to keep out Le Pen’!

In the run-up to that French Presidential victory, Macron had styled himself as one of Europe’s leading foreign affairs diplomats, eagerly try to reach a solution with Russian boss Vladimir Putin to get the war in Ukraine ended.

But with French politics now thrown into chaos, Macron may have to focus much more closely on domestic issues rather than swanning about Europe trying to be a ‘top dog peacemaker’.

This could provide a much-needed opening for British PM Boris Johnson to steal Macron’s diplomatic thunder, especially with Putin threatening to deploy his notorious Satan II missiles.

The size of the recent Tory rebellion during the bruising vote of confidence motion in the party has left BoJo with a massive political migraine. BoJo badly needs a resounding victory on the diplomatic front to ease the Westminster pressure (or at least deflect it!) on his premiership - and what better way to reassert his authority in Parliament than by announcing a breakthrough in the crisis in Ukraine.

In reality, could his supposed buffoonery bamboozle Putin into calming down and doing the unthinkable - pulling his forces completely out of Ukraine as the old Soviet Union was forced to do in Afghanistan?

With Macron’s centre ground collapsing in France, and with BoJo attempting to take centre stage in Europe - and also avoiding an economically disastrous trade war with the European Union over the Protocol - more pressure could be heaped on the DUP in Northern Ireland to enter an Executive by firstly nominating a Speaker and then a deputy First Minister.

BoJo taking over the crown of King Peacemaker in Europe could mean the DUP can no longer hold either the peace process or BoJo himself to political ransom.

If BoJo can get through the traditional Marching Season in Northern Ireland without any serious rioting (indeed, any rioting at all!) from militant loyalism, then he could call the DUP’s bluff come September or October with another snap Assembly poll.

As the Protestant Unionist Loyalist community munches on their tea and sandwiches during the Twelfth and Royal Black parade summer season, could that community be thinking - who really runs the DUP?

Is it the modernisers around party boss Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, or is it the so-called ‘Old Guard’ of Paisleyite originals in the DUP executive who are constantly looking over their shoulder electorally at North Antrim MLA Jim Allister’s hardline Traditional Unionist Voice and the 65,000 odd first preference votes which drifted to the TUV in May’s Stormont showdown?

With Macron now on the ropes politically, and with BoJo set to take full advantage of Macron’s misfortune, could the DUP find itself backed into a very tight political corner whereby the Sir Jeffrey-led has no other option but to blink and nominate a Speaker or face electoral humiliation either in an autumn Assembly election or next year’s planned council elections?

If the DUP cannot win back the majority of those 65,000 TUV votes, could Northern Ireland’s councils see significant gains for hardline Unionist candidates in the local government showdown?

Indeed, with Macron significantly weakened politically in France, would the EU be less tough on the UK if BoJo can use his new found ‘glory’ as King Peacemaker to get a resolution to the crisis in Ukraine?

In that scenario, BoJo can play the Protocol Bill card with the DUP any time he wants. Key question - can the DUP stomach the delay?

Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online

Is BoJo Set To Become The New Macron?