Paudie Sullivan ✍ Anyone over the age of 30 in the North of Ireland would have been forgiven for expecting the PSNI to use violence against the Garvaghy Road Residents in Portadown, following the Parades Commission’s contentious September 2026 decision to grant an Orange march after a 28-year hiatus.
Yet, PSNI Chief Constable Jon Boutcher made it explicitly clear at the Policing Board that forcing the parade through a crowd of protesting residents would be "catastrophic," admitting that the level of physical force required to execute such an operation was entirely unviable. This stands in stark contrast to July 1996, when the PSNI’s predecessor—the RUC under Hugh Annesley—enthusiastically battered nationalist residents off the Road to pave the way for the Orange Order.
A question; has the demographic shift within policing dictated this operational reticence? In 1996, Catholic/Nationalist representation in the RUC sat at a meagre 8%, leaving the force over 91% Protestant/Unionist and moulded by seven decades as the armed guarantor of a unionist state. Today, post 1999 Patten Report, Catholic/nationalist representation within the PSNI stands at roughly 31%.
This internal political dynamic is far from theoretical. On February 5, 2021, the PSNI arrested Mark Sykes—a survivor of the 1992 Sean Graham bookmakers massacre—at a dignified 29th-anniversary wreath-laying ceremony on Belfast’s Ormeau Road under the guise of Covid-19 health regulations. As detailed in The Irish News, the incident was said to have sparked immediate internal dissension among nationalist peelers and threatened a collapse in community confidence. Then Chief Constable Simon Byrne was forced to interrupt a trip to London, returning urgently to suspend one cop and reassign another to head off an existential rift within the force.
The British state and PSNI leadership now find themselves in an acute dilemma. After decades of time, political capital, and public funding spent trying to render the PSNI palatable to nationalism, violently forcing an unwanted march down the Garvaghy Road would destroy that delicate construct. It would risk a mass exodus of Catholic personnel, gut nationalist recruitment, and completely vindicate the long-held republican stance that the PSNI remains little more than a colonial instrument—a "continuity RUC."
Beyond political optics, there is a stark mechanical reality: the PSNI simply lacks the numbers. Police strength is at a historic low of under 6,400 members. The widespread civil unrest that followed previous assaults on Garvaghy Road demonstrates that any PSNI charge in Portadown would not remain isolated; it would trigger simultaneous relief confrontations in nationalist areas across the North.
The historical precedent is undeniable. In August 1969, when the RUC and the paramilitary B-Specials proved utterly unable to hold the North following the Battle of the Bogside, the British government was forced to initiate Operation Banner and deploy British soldiers onto the streets. The PSNI today could not contain a similar North-wide revolt without once again demanding British military intervention.
In these operational and political calculations, you see the true, exorbitant price the British state would have to pay merely to facilitate 35 Orangemen walking roughshod over the fundamental rights of a nationalist community to live free from sectarian intimidation.
Yet, PSNI Chief Constable Jon Boutcher made it explicitly clear at the Policing Board that forcing the parade through a crowd of protesting residents would be "catastrophic," admitting that the level of physical force required to execute such an operation was entirely unviable. This stands in stark contrast to July 1996, when the PSNI’s predecessor—the RUC under Hugh Annesley—enthusiastically battered nationalist residents off the Road to pave the way for the Orange Order.
A question; has the demographic shift within policing dictated this operational reticence? In 1996, Catholic/Nationalist representation in the RUC sat at a meagre 8%, leaving the force over 91% Protestant/Unionist and moulded by seven decades as the armed guarantor of a unionist state. Today, post 1999 Patten Report, Catholic/nationalist representation within the PSNI stands at roughly 31%.
This internal political dynamic is far from theoretical. On February 5, 2021, the PSNI arrested Mark Sykes—a survivor of the 1992 Sean Graham bookmakers massacre—at a dignified 29th-anniversary wreath-laying ceremony on Belfast’s Ormeau Road under the guise of Covid-19 health regulations. As detailed in The Irish News, the incident was said to have sparked immediate internal dissension among nationalist peelers and threatened a collapse in community confidence. Then Chief Constable Simon Byrne was forced to interrupt a trip to London, returning urgently to suspend one cop and reassign another to head off an existential rift within the force.
The British state and PSNI leadership now find themselves in an acute dilemma. After decades of time, political capital, and public funding spent trying to render the PSNI palatable to nationalism, violently forcing an unwanted march down the Garvaghy Road would destroy that delicate construct. It would risk a mass exodus of Catholic personnel, gut nationalist recruitment, and completely vindicate the long-held republican stance that the PSNI remains little more than a colonial instrument—a "continuity RUC."
Beyond political optics, there is a stark mechanical reality: the PSNI simply lacks the numbers. Police strength is at a historic low of under 6,400 members. The widespread civil unrest that followed previous assaults on Garvaghy Road demonstrates that any PSNI charge in Portadown would not remain isolated; it would trigger simultaneous relief confrontations in nationalist areas across the North.
The historical precedent is undeniable. In August 1969, when the RUC and the paramilitary B-Specials proved utterly unable to hold the North following the Battle of the Bogside, the British government was forced to initiate Operation Banner and deploy British soldiers onto the streets. The PSNI today could not contain a similar North-wide revolt without once again demanding British military intervention.
In these operational and political calculations, you see the true, exorbitant price the British state would have to pay merely to facilitate 35 Orangemen walking roughshod over the fundamental rights of a nationalist community to live free from sectarian intimidation.
⏩Paudie Sullivan is a socialist activist.























