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Dr John Coulter ✍ It may still be a few days until the Stormont Christmas recess as well as the traditional school holidays, but there’s no doubt all the political parties have been in election mode since the start of the academic year in September.

Put bluntly, although it is around 18 months until the next Assembly showdown in May 2027, it is clear from any of the local weekly newspapers in Northern Ireland as well as social media, that the starting gun for that election has already been fired.

Within the pro-Union community, all eyes will be fixed on the DUP to see if it can hold its position as the lead Unionist party, or will 2027 become the DUP’s 2003 - the year the Ulster Unionists lost their position as top dog in Unionism to the DUP.

The UUP’s disastrous showing in 2003’s Assembly poll was followed up two years later with another drubbing in the Westminster elections, firmly cementing the DUP’s pole position in Unionism and paving the way for the following year’s St Andrews Agreement and the return of a DUP/Sinn Fein-led power-sharing Executive at Stormont in 2007.

The 2007 era under Rev Ian Paisley as First Minister with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness as deputy First Minister - known as the Chuckle Brothers - is widely viewed as one of the most stable periods of devolution in the history of the current Assembly since it was first elected in 1998.

In 2027, the DUP will be fighting on two fronts - preventing progressive pro-Union voters going back to the Ulster Unionists, whilst at the same time, stopping more hardline pro-Union voters defecting to the TUV.

The UUP will have its own challenges, namely persuading moderate pro-Union voters who defected to Alliance to return to the UUP fold.

In this battle for votes, all pro-Union parties will have two major lobbies to canvas. Firstly, there is the seemingly large numbers of ‘stay at home’ voters who have lost faith in the ballot box.

Gone are the days when Unionist elected representatives could boast of 30,000-vote majorities. How many Assembly seats have been lost by the pro-Union community because of a lack of voter turnout and bitter rivalry between the parties resulting in pro-Union voters not transferring to other pro-Union parties?

Gone, too, for the DUP are the slogans of the Paisleyite era, such as the 1985 local government poll when the battle cry was ‘Smash Sinn Fein’ with Rev Ian Paisley pictured brandishing a sledgehammer.

The problem for the DUP is ironically the long-term fallout from that St Andrews Agreement of almost two decades ago. Part of the deal was to change how the First and deputy First Ministers were selected.

Prior to 2006, the posts were decided by the largest designations - Unionism, nationalism, or Other. From the 1998 Assembly, these positions were held by David Trimble of the UUP and the SDLP’s Seamus Mallon.

However, under St Andrews, the DUP got this selection process changed to the largest party rather than designation. Perhaps the DUP - then the largest party in the Assembly in 2006 - assumed it would always remain the top dog at Stormont.

But the numbers game is no longer adding up for the DUP and St Andrews, whilst it hugely benefitted the DUP in 2006, is now a political millstone around the party’s neck as Sinn Fein is now the largest party in the Stormont Chamber and holds the post of First Minister.

So for Unionism to once again hold the First Minister’s position in 2027, two elements would have to come into play. Firstly, there would have to be massive tactical voting for the DUP within the pro-Union community, especially from the UUP and TUV, both of which are nudging up gradually in the opinion polls.

Secondly, under reform of the Assembly, the St Andrews rule would have to be scrapped and a return to the 1998 largest designation era. The worst case scenario for the pro-Union community is that the Unionist vote becomes so evenly split between DUP, TUV, UUP and Independent Unionists that Lagan Valley Syndrome becomes the order of the day.

In the last Westminster General Election, the traditionally safe Unionist seat of Lagan Valley fell to Alliance because of a three-way split in the pro-Union vote.

The DUP also faces a problem of political direction with rumours abounding of ideological splits within the party, with some wanting a more moderate approach, while others want a traditional fundamentalist old-style Paisleyite approach.

The elephant in the room for the DUP continues to be the TUV. Whilst the latter has only one MLA, the TUV has been steadily increasing in opinion polls and if it can present itself as much more transfer friendly, could easily tally its Assembly members to double figures.

Ironically, the same dilemma faces the UUP. Does it continue along the existing ultra moderate Nesbitt route of being a liberal Unionist party capable of attracting pro-Union voters back from Alliance, or does it adopt a more Right-wing approach capable of attracting transfers from the DUP.

Just as many pro-Union voters opted for Alliance as a protest against the Unionist parties, especially over Brexit, could disillusioned DUP voters opt for the UUP which could see Ulster Unionism back into double figures in terms of MLAs.

Put bluntly, there will have to be some form of Unionist co-operation if the pro-Union parties want to see more folk, especially from the loyalist communities, re-engage with the ballot box on polling day.

Likewise, the recent Supreme Court ruling on religious education in schools has acted as a massive mobilisation boost for the Christian church lobby in Northern Ireland, spanning the religious divide. But who will the church vote drift too?

Could we see evangelicals and fundamentalists save the DUP electorally in the same way that the fundamentalist Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster, founded by Paisley senior in 1951, was once the cornerstone of the DUP. Or could that church vote abandon the DUP in flocks and plump for the TUV.

Whilst there has been much debate within the pro-Union community about the need to focus on middle of the road voters, if the current opinion polls become election results in 2027, has the Alliance bubble finally burst?

Just as the Liberal Democrats have found to their cost at Westminster when they have climbed into bed politically with either of the supposed Big Two in the House of Commons, could Alliance come to deeply regret the day it has sided with the SDLP and Sinn Fein in voting strategies.
 
Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter
John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. 

Could The DUP Be Facing Its 2003 in 2027?

Lynx By Ten To The Power Of One Thousand Nine Eight Hundred And Eleven

 

A Morning Thought @ 2992

Labour Heartlands ☭ Written by Paul Knaggs. Recommended by Gearoid O’Loingsigh.

 -December 7, 2025

Socialism or Ultra-Liberalism? The Left’s Defining Choice

The entire trans debate is coming to a head, and the left is fracturing along predictable lines. The Girl Guides have reversed their 2017 policy and banned males who identify as women from their ranks. The Women’s Institute, which has welcomed women since the 1970s, has followed suit. Meanwhile, Your Party, the newly formed outfit claiming to be a socialist alternative, has overwhelmingly voted to enshrine “trans liberation” in its founding documents. These demands, backed enthusiastically by Zarah Sultana, come from the Trans Liberation Group, an extremist faction that wants to defy the Supreme Court, unwind women’s rights, and rewrite the Equality Act itself.

Here is what you are left with: socialism or ultra-liberalism. You cannot have both.

Let us be clear about what the Supreme Court actually ruled. In April 2025, the UK’s highest court delivered a unanimous judgment in For Women Scotland v The Scottish Ministers. It confirmed what most people already knew: that “sex” in the Equality Act 2010 means biological sex. A woman is an adult human female. A man is an adult human male. A Gender Recognition Certificate does not change this legal reality. The ruling did not strip trans people of protections. They remain protected under the characteristic of gender reassignment. What it did was clarify that women’s sex-based rights, fought for over generations, cannot simply be wished away by ministerial guidance or ideological capture.The Vitruvian Woman.

Continue @ Labour Heartlands.

The Trans Liberation Group’s response? Overturn it. Their demands are explicit: amend the Equality Act to make “sex” mean “current lived sex”, ban “gender-critical” beliefs from protection, allow self-identification for all purposes including prisons, abolish the Equality and Human Rights Commission, and legally enshrine the right not to disclose one’s trans status to sexual partners. They want children to access cross-sex hormones without parental consent, puberty blockers for minors, and hormone replacement therapy available over the counter. They want gender ideology taught in schools as fact, not debate.

Trans Liberation Or Socialism 🪶 You Can’t Have Both

Friendly Atheist ★ She turned in a Bible sermon instead of an essay and failed. Now conservatives say she’s the victim.

Samantha Fulnecky, a conservative student at the University of Oklahoma, insists that she’s a victim of religious discrimination after receiving a failing grade on a homework assignment for which she didn’t produce anything of value but referenced the Bible a whole bunch of times.

And now the educator on the other end of this false claim has been placed on administrative leave.

The assignment was for a psychology course and required students to read and respond to a decade-old article on “Gender Typicality, Peer Relations, and Mental Health.” The paper in question basically showed that students who are gender typical tend to be perceived as more popular, and that boys who are gender atypical suffer worse mental health outcomes.

Students were asked to respond to that paper in a essay. They could talk about whether the issue was worth studying, how they connected (or didn’t!) to the research, how the study related to other areas of interest, alternative interpretations of what the researchers found, etc.

Continue @ Friendly Atheist.

Christian Idiot

Right Wing Watch 👀 Written by Kyle Mantyla.


During his Monday night livestream, Trump-loving Christian nationalist pseudo-historian Rick Green announced his intention to get Operation Wetback, a military-style deportation campaign carried out by the Eisenhower administration in the 1950s, taught positively in Texas schools.

During the stream, Green voiced his support for Trump's vow to "permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries" and "remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country." Green pointed to Eisenhower's deportation campaign as evidence that it can be done.

"I think that it will be incredibly popular for President Trump to do what he said he was going to do," Green said. "They're going to start deporting people, even the ones that came here legally."

"I don't care if you came here legally," Green continued.

If we decide you're not good for America, absolutely the American government has the right to end our stay and deport you. And that's what needs to happen with any group that is not good for America, that does not line up with American values. And yes, I'm referring to a lot of the Muslim community . . .

Working To Ensure 'Operation Wetback' Is Taught In Texas Schools

Lynx By Ten To The Power Of One Thousand Nine Eight Hundred And Ten

 

A Morning Thought @ 2991

Anthony McIntyre    In the month of Christmas we find that the only spirit haunting Gaza is the ghost of Genocide Past.

Like a vampire, driven by bloodlust, it stalks the bombed out buildings and war-made wastelands in search of victims. The post world war 2 edict of Never Again has been exposed for being as hollow as the hearts and as shallow as the minds of those who swore fidelity to the concept and have borne false witness to it since. For them Never Again really amounts to Never Again will we move to prevent genocide if it is being perpetrated by our allies rather than our enemies.

Mondoweiss has put its finger on the type of peace Gazans are now enduring.

It’s been nearly two months since the ceasefire was reached in Gaza. Hopes were high among the 2 million Palestinians in the besieged Strip that not only would the Israeli bombings stop, but that everything they had been deprived of for the past two years – food, clean water, adequate medicine and healthcare – would flood into Gaza to ease their struggles. The hopes of regaining a fragment of the life they knew before the war, have dissipated, as the reality of a “new genocide” sets in . . . Though some aid has come into Gaza, and people have tried to restore some semblance of normalcy, the reality in Gaza is far from peacetime. Israeli bombs are still falling, people cannot return to their home, and sufficient food aid and medicines are still in short supply.

On November 6 a Deputy UN Spokesperson, Farhan Haq, told journalists in New York that:

Our partners report that since the ceasefire, the Israeli authorities have rejected 107 requests for the entry of relief materials, including blankets, winter clothes, and tools and material to maintain and operate water, sanitation and hygiene services.

Add to this the joint statement by Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates warning that the Israeli decision to open the Rafah crossing so that traumatised Palestinian citizens could make their way to Egypt, is to enable the expulsion of Gazans. The eight nations stated their 'absolute rejection of any attempts to expel the Palestinian people from their land,' and have demanded that the crossing be opened both ways. We know only too well the Israeli attitude to the right of return.

This combination of Israeli tactical manoeuvres to secure t the strategic of population displacement has led to a spokesperson for the health ministry in Gaza claiming:

This is a new form of genocide. The policy of refusing to allow in what is necessary for people’s survival mirrors what happened earlier, when food was withheld, and malnutrition was deliberately created.

Against such a sombre backdrop, it is animating to again gather alongside all those who make up Drogheda Stands With Palestine, particularly in the wake of last week's intensified efforts both in the town and in Dublin to force the issue in front of the noses of the Michael Lowry-made coalition that governs this country. That Lowry had such a prominent role as kingmaker tells us that the heartbeat of the governing class is not an ethical one, while allowing us to better grasp the anger that fuses Alan Kelly - our own Alan Kelly, the good one, not the Labour Party guy - when he calls for someone to shout out the names Micheal Martin, Simon Harris, Helen McEntee and call them spineless lying bastards over their inertia on the Occupied Territories Bill. 

Sadly, the people of Ireland are not alone in trying to compel Western governments to do what they should be doing. The German opposition has slated the country's Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, over his upcoming visit to Israel, where he is scheduled to meet a man wanted by the International Criminal Court on suspicion of war crimes, Beelzebub Netanyahu. Such nauseating contempt for universal human rights and global justice.

On a lighter note, a friend in Belfast, Marty Flynn, baked what he called a Bailies based cake. He sent it through the post and it arrived yesterday, neatly packaged in a Quality Street tub. I am hoping that is not on the boycott list but if it is then I can console myself with the knowledge that we only got the tub and not the contents. It was hardly opened before four of us ate halfway through it. Sated, I came up with the suggestion to share the rest of it with those who I have been honoured to stand alongside for the past two years protesting Israel, a country that has already stolen the Palestinian cake and commits genocide in pursuit of more.

⏩Follow on Twitter @AnthonyMcIntyre.

Ghost Of Genocide Past

Raw Story ★ Written by Alexander Willis. Recommended by Christy Walsh.

The Trump administration is facing a wave of condemnation after new reporting has revealed details about the systemic “torture” migrants were subjected to after being deported to El Salvador’s notoriously dangerous CECOT prison.

The Trump administration has sent around 250 migrants to El Salvador’s CECOT prison as part of its broader mass deportation policy. And, while the prison’s tortuous conditions have been well documented, The New York Times recently spoke with 40 former inmates whose testimony, forensic experts say, indicated “the existence of an institutional policy and practice of torture,” the outlet reported Sunday.

Speaking with the Times, the former inmates said they were beaten repeatedly, subjected to waterboarding-like torture, stripped naked and forced to perform sexual acts, and denied lifesaving medication. Of the 40 men interviewed, only three had criminal histories beyond immigration and traffic offenses, despite Trump’s pledge to only deport the “worst of the worst.”

The detailed account of the torturous conditions left many critics stunned, including former MSNBC host Mehdi Hasan, who called for Democrats – should they regain control of Congress and the White House – to not forget what the Trump administration had subjected migrants to and to hold them to account.

Continue @ Raw Story.

'This Is On Them' 🪶 Trump Admin Scorched After Systemic 'Torture' Of Deportees Exposed

Free Betty Campaign Coordination Team ✊ As we enter the global 16 Days of Activism against sex-based violence, the Free Betty Coalition is calling on the public to help secure the release of Ibtissame Betty Lachgar, a Moroccan feminist and human rights defender imprisoned for a peaceful act of expression. 

The coalition represents hundreds of organisations representing hundreds of thousands of people.

Betty was arrested on 10 August 2025 in Morocco for posting a photograph, taken in London, in which she wore a T-shirt reading “Allah is Lesbian,” an appropriation of a famous anti-racist feminist slogan. She was sentenced to 30 months in prison under Article 267-5 and fined.By 10 December—International Human Rights Day—Betty will have spent 122 days in prison for a peaceful act of expression carried out outside Morocco. Since her imprisonment, Betty has been held in conditions that pose a grave and escalating threat to her health and safety. A bone cancer survivor with a prosthetic left arm, she urgently requires specialised surgery. Instead, her condition has deteriorated so severely that her humerus bone has now completely detached — a development that significantly increases the risk of amputation. Despite this, she continues to be denied the medical care her doctors consider essential. Betty is also held in prolonged isolation, without a mattress or pillow, forced to sleep on blankets placed directly on concrete in a cold cell with a broken window. Such treatment falls far below the minimum standards required under international law and violates Morocco’s obligations regarding the right to health, humane detention conditions and freedom from cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.

1. Sign the Petitions to Free Betty and Publicise her case

Amplify her case across your social media platforms and sign the petitions available on freebetty.org.

2. Letter-Writing Push (Between November 25-December 10)

Write to the Moroccan embassy in your country and to your elected representatives urging Betty’s release and humane treatment. Sample letters which you can adapt or share with members follows below.

You can find contact details of some Moroccan embassies and government officials here.

Moroccan Embassies/Consulates:

Embassies relay concerns directly to Rabat. A coordinated international wave of letters creates diplomatic pressure that is difficult to ignore. Key points to include in your letter:
  • Express concern about the 30-month sentence for peaceful expression.
  • The photo was taken in London, outside Morocco.
  • Betty is a bone cancer survivor whose bone is now completely detached, creating a real risk of amputation.
  • She is being denied essential, specialised medical care.
  • She has no mattress, sleeps on concrete, and is in isolation.
  • Urge Morocco to respect its obligations under the ICCPR and Mandela Rules.
  • Call for her immediate release, end to isolation, urgent access to surgery, and repeal of Article 267-5.

Keep it respectful, factual and firm.

Sample Letter To Moroccan Embassies

Subject: Human Rights Day Appeal – Immediate Action Required for Ibtissame Betty Lachgar

Dear Ambassador

I am writing to express my deep concern regarding the continued imprisonment and deteriorating health of Ibtissame Betty Lachgar, sentenced to 30 months in prison for posting a photograph, taken in London, of herself wearing a T-shirt reading “Allah is Lesbian,” an appropriation of a feminist slogan in defence of human rights.

Ms Lachgar is a bone cancer survivor whose humerus bone is now completely detached, placing her at real risk of amputation. She has been denied specialised medical treatment, including the urgent surgery recommended by her doctors. She is held in isolation, without a mattress, sleeping on blankets laid on concrete.

These conditions are incompatible with Morocco’s obligations under the ICCPR and the UN Mandela Rules, which require access to adequate medical care and humane treatment.

  • I urge your government to:Release Ms Lachgar immediately and unconditionally
  • Apply alternative penalties as available under Moroccan law
  • End her isolation and ensure she has basic bedding and humane conditions
  • Provide urgent, specialised medical care, including surgery
  • Repeal Article 267-5 and all laws restricting peaceful expression

I make this appeal in the hope that Morocco will uphold its international commitments and protect Ms Lachgar’s life and dignity.

Yours sincerely,

[City/Country]

Write To Your Elected Representatives

Your elected representatives can:

  • Request action from the country’s Foreign Minister
  • Raise the case in Parliament / Congress
  • Make direct inquiries to Moroccan authorities
  • Issue public statements
  • Help secure medical monitoring or diplomatic observation

Ask your representative to:Raise Betty’s case with the Foreign Ministry immediately.

  1. Urge diplomatic pressure on Morocco for her immediate and unconditional release.
  2. Press for urgent specialised medical treatment, including surgery.
  3. Seek explanations for the prosecution of an act of expression carried out abroad.
  4. Request monitoring of her detention conditions, including isolation and lack of bedding.
  5. Press Morocco to repeal laws criminalising peaceful expression.


Sample Letter To Your Elected Representatives


Subject: Human Rights Day Appeal – Please Urgently Raise the Case of Ibtissame Betty Lachgar

Dear [Title + Name],

Ahead of Human Rights Day, I am writing to ask for your urgent assistance regarding the case of Ibtissame Betty Lachgar, a Moroccan feminist and human rights defender imprisoned for a peaceful act of expression.

Ms Lachgar was sentenced to 30 months in prison for posting a photograph taken in London wearing a T-shirt reading “Allah is Lesbian,” an appropriation of a feminist slogan in support of human rights.

Since 10 August 2025, she has been held in isolation without a mattress, sleeping on concrete, and denied specialised medical care despite being a bone cancer survivor. Her humerus bone is now completely detached, and doctors warn of imminent risk of amputation without surgery.

Her arrest and imprisonment contravene Morocco’s obligations under the ICCPR and Mandela Rules.

  1. I respectfully request that you:Raise Ms Lachgar’s case with the Foreign Minister as a matter of urgency
  2. Urge diplomatic pressure on Morocco for her immediate and unconditional release
  3. Request that Morocco facilitate urgent surgical and specialised medical care
  4. Seek clarification on the prosecution of an act of expression carried out in London
  5. Encourage monitoring of her health, conditions of detention and safety
  6. Support international calls for Morocco to revise laws criminalising peaceful expression

Your intervention could help save her arm and her life.

Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter.

Yours sincerely,

[Address and Email]

3. Join Mattress Action on December 10 (Human Rights Day)

To highlight that Betty has been forced to sleep on concrete for more than 120 days, we will bring mattresses and bedding to Moroccan embassies/consulates on December 10th. This stark, simple image communicates cruelty and neglect in a way no statement can. If you can participate—or organise an action in your own city—please inform us as soon as possible so we can coordinate, support, and amplify your event. Confirmed actions so far: Paris, London, Los Angeles.

Thank you for standing with Betty during these critical days.

In solidarity,

Siham Lachgar • Haram Doodles • Maryam Namazie • Shelley Segal

The Free Betty Campaign Coordination Team

Help Free Ibtissame Betty Lachgar

Lynx By Ten To The Power Of One Thousand Nine Eight Hundred And Nine

 

Pastords @ 20

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