Of course, Putin’s spin doctors - if they have any sense - will never publicly admit to any jiggery pokery in that 2026 vote when Tory David Cameron was Prime Minister.
The outcome was very tight. The Leave camp won by only four per cent with the UK deeply divided - 52% Leave, to 48% Remain, with most of England and Wales voting Leave while Northern Ireland and Scotland voted Remain.
And we all know what the fallout from the specific Northern Ireland result meant! The Protocol, Windsor Framework, Irish Sea Border and chaos at Stormont!
In short, no one got the result they wanted. The Cameron camp who wanted Remain was hoping for a slender victory so that it could wring more concessions from Europe.
The Leave camp, spearheaded by Nigel Farage and a fairly large slice of Northern Ireland Unionists, really did not expect to win and had no Plan A as to how to successfully implement Brexit when the final result was announced.
While Cameron’s Remain camp anticipated a narrow victory result, the Leave campaign was probably expecting a narrow defeat so that the euro-skeptic lobby within the UK could heap pressure on Cameron to clinch those much-desired concessions from the EU.
And as for Moscow; what was its preferred outcome? Simply a substantial victory for the Leave camp which could see the first steps taken in the long-term break-up of the EU.
The Russians regarded the UK as one of the major players financially, politically, and especially militarily in the EU. If the UK had voted convincingly to Leave, it would give a massive boost to the Euro-skeptic movements across other EU member states.
What Moscow really wanted to see in the 2016 referendum was a result more akin to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement referendum in Northern Ireland which saw 71% in favour of the Belfast Agreement, with only 29% against. How the corridors of the Kremlin in Moscow would have been filled with clapping and laughter if the Leave percentage had been 71%.
A bigger Leave majority in 2016 would have allowed Moscow to sneakily but subtly campaign for a greater political distance between the UK and the EU. Russia could even start pushing for similar referendums in key EU states, such as Germany, France, Spain and Southern Ireland.
An EU clearly without the UK would have made Russia’s aggressive expansionist plans on Europe must easier to implement militarily. Let’s face reality - the war in Ukraine is merely a stepping stone to build another Russian empire in Europe.
Communism may have collapsed in terms of the old Soviet Union, but modern-day Russia would welcome the rebuilding of a territorial empire which dictator Josef Stalin enjoyed in the years after the ending of World War Two.
Earlier this month, we witnessed the formal ratification of the Kensington Treaty between the UK and Germany, which contained commitments to develop a number of so-called ‘Lighthouse Projects’, including a defence missile system for Europe.
Just as the UK’s wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill had warned of an Iron Curtain descending over Europe in the form of Russian communism, so too, the Kensington Treaty will go a long way to building an Iron Wall against modern-day imperialist Russia.
It is somewhat ironic that the Kensington Treaty, signed in Berlin, has achieved what Nazi tyrant Adolf Hitler could only dream about - an Anglo-German pact against Russia.
It has been suggested Hitler wanted to form an alliance with Churchill against Stalin, but given the atrocities which the Nazis had already committed by the time the Second World War erupted, there was no way the UK was going to ‘climb into bed’ militarily with Hitler’s SS thugs.
Besides the Holocaust, at that time, who in their right mind militarily would invade Russia? The French Emperor Napoleon in the 19th century and the German Kaiser during the Great War both learned to their cost that all the Russians had to do to combat invasion was to move east geographically as fast as possible and let the horrific Russian winters deal with the invaders.
But in this third millennium, we now live in an era of different warfare tactics and especially the use of missiles and drones. This month’s Kensington Treaty will build on an earlier defence and security partnership between the UK and Germany known as the 2024 Trinity House Agreement.
One of the main projects that Agreement had on the table was a military partnership for a joint fighter jet. One problem which the West has always encountered in trying to combat Russian arms is the variety and compatibility of equipment of the various Western and NATO resources.
During the era of the old Soviet Union, the Russians and their satellite states all used the same resources militarily, especially in aircraft, whilst the West had a variety of planes.
Under the Trinity House Agreement, Western powers could agree on the use of a common fighter jet which could be used across various nations. The new Kensington Treaty will accelerate bilateral agreements on the economy, transport and migration, given the various challenges which both the UK and Germany are now facing.
Both face the threat from Islamic radicals, Iran, problems in the Middle East, and relations with the Trump administration in Washington.
Immigration is also a major problem for both the UK and Germany - the former with the small boat crossings; the latter with an open border policy.
Likewise, PM Burnham has made no secret of his aspiration not just for closer working relations between the UK and EU in a post Brexit era, but also moving to the possibility of a further referendum on the UK rejoining the EU - a move which would certainly strengthen the EU’s capability to combat Russia.
In the meantime, it will not go unnoticed in the Kremlin the growth in Hard Right, populist and Euro-skeptic movements in the current EU membership states. Around half of the present EU members states have a significant Far Right movement.
Germany has recently witnessed the steady electoral growth of the Far Right AfD party, and with the Spanish elections due at the end of next month, the Hard Right could potentially put in a show not witnessed since the days of the fascist dictator Franco. The Hard Right National Rally party is also expected to make gains in France.
There is no doubting that the current Triple Alliance bloc of Germany, Spain and France would be greatly enhanced if it could get the UK back in the EU.
But what would be the economic and financial price tag for rejoining? Would the UK want to rejoin an EU dominated by the Hard Right? And what would be the fate of the Irish Sea Border if the UK voted to rejoin?
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Dr Coulter has been a journalist since 1978 and is currently a political commentator with GB News. |
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