Q: I am struck by how nationalism and unionism are apparently so strongly talking past each other this week on Drumcree.
AM: It sort of confirms Paul Bew's post-GFA statement that sectarianism had not been transcended but institutionalised. There is so much animosity between the DUP and SF that it is hard to characterise the Executive as Power Sharing and easy to characterise it as Power Splitting. Sharing is being magnanimous, splitting is being parsimonious. It is zero sum politics.
Q: Nationalists are horrified by the organs of the state attempting to direct an Orange parade down the Garvaghy Road.
AM: Rightly so. Given the history, the psychological trauma indelibly ingrained in the collective Garvaghy Road psyche, who but the most insensitive bigot would insist on pushing an Orange march down Garvaghy Road, and why would a British state want to see it go down? Imagine what it would do for PSNI recruitment from the Nationalist community if the force accedes to the DUP demand to clear the protestors off the road. The Orange have an alternative route where they are welcome.
Q: The concerns of each side appear to register at zero with each other.
AM: The Garvaghy Road residents have a concern not to be subjected to a sectarian hate march. The Orange has a concern to have a sectarian hate march. Both concerns are real. But a hatred of sectarian bigotry is on a different moral plateau to a hateful sectarian bigotry. By that standard the concern of the residents is the more authentic of the two.
If the DUP is serious about the need to respect the rule of law I would expect to hear calls from its leadership, Robinson, Lockhart et al, for Netanyahu to be arrested and to be handed over to the International Criminal Court. Demanding that Michelle O'Neill obey British law while supporting Netanyahu breaching international law is only going to land one way with nationalists.
Q: Do you think both sides are deliberately not hearing the other in order to try and capture the narrative and public square?
AM: Both sides do hear each other but remain implacably opposed to what they hear.
Q: Also - nationalists on the Garvaghy Road said they are in immense fear of the parade on the Garvaghy Road.
AM: If 35 elderly Orangemen dressed like normal people and walked down Garvaghy Road like normal citizens no one would notice. Once the Orange is raised given the road's history, it transforms the psyche.
I, as an elderly republican could assert some imaginary right to go to Frizzell's fish shop on the Shankill accompanied by 34 former blanketmen of similar age, to lay a wreath for Thomas Begley because he died there, and insist it is traditional for republicans to remember their dead. The people of the Shankill would regard it as an abomination. The thing is - I too would regard it as an abomination and would never seek to do it.
Q: But clearly 35 elderly Orangemen at 8am on a Sunday are not going to cause any trouble.
AM: I could argue the same about Frizzell's. Psychology is a huge element in power politics and is used as a weapon. It is the contempt for the community that makes this such a psychologically visceral issue for the residents.
Q: So as Stephen Nolan asked yesterday, are they not actually registering fear of what happened decades ago, rather than registering fear about what is actually on the table in 2026?
AM: I feel Stephen Nolan has persistently inflamed rather than informed so I pay no attention to what he says about anything. If you are asking the question then of course I will answer: what is on the table in 2026 is a sectarian hate march. In all walks of life we tend to take the view of let well alone; if it is not broken, don't try to fix it. Nothing in 28 years and now we have this.
Q: Do you still think this will not reignite the Troubles?
AM: While it has reignited simmering tensions that have never evaporated, I still believe it will not reignite the troubles in so far as there will be no IRA campaign resumption. Hopefully loyalism will not see any benefit to plunging Northern society back into that hell. The place is a political quagmire but nothing is to be gained by turning it into a fire pit.
Q: Might SF walk away from Stormont?
AM: SF's investment in Stormont has not yielded a good return. But the mood of nationalist Ireland is with the party on the Garvaghy Road issue so I imagine SF would want to read the room before deciding to jump. SF will probably think about how nationalist Ireland perceives Stormont rather than just thinking about how SF perceives it. At the moment I do not see an appetite throughout nationalist Ireland for SF to collapse the Executive. I do think however, it would suit SF to have the DUP collapse it.
Q: Maria Cahill has asked:
Why is IRA man Martin Duckser Lynch, who hails from West Belfast, directing the protesters at Garvaghy? What does First Minister Michelle O'Neill think of this? This is a question that the media should be asking. They won't. He comes in here after Brendan Mac Cionnaith says that they're not going to let "those fuckers down."
AM: Martin Lynch is a seasoned activist with organisational experience. He was the IRA leader in the H Blocks at a time when the prison was still quite turbulent and he managed it quite well. If I am correct, he would have been in the H Blocks at the same time as Breandan Mac Cionnaith. Link that to the instinctive sympathy across nationalist Ireland for the residents of Garvaghy Road and you have the beginning of an answer as to why he was there.
It is natural for former republican prisoners to have a keen interest in these types of events given their own history of resistance. They have always been to the fore of pushing back against intrusion by the Orange Order.
I can see no reason why Michelle O'Neill would object to his presence. He was one of many former blanket men and former republican prisoners to assemble against what many nationalists see as a hate march.
A former blanket man and hunger striker, Pat Sheehan stood up in the Stormont Assembly and challenged the DUP with the assertion that it had surrendered the leadership of unionism to Jamie Bryson.
I suspect that Michelle O'Neill would see little difference between Martin Lynch on Garvaghy Road and Pat Sheehan in the Stormont chamber - a joint enterprise where each puts their shoulder to different parts of the same wheel rolling back Orange intrusion on the Garvaghy Road.
The absolute cynic in me thinks this was a gift for both the shinners and duppers, both of whom have shown little in the way of turning any benefit to their respective communities. The Loyalists have no interest in starting the unrest again either.
ReplyDeleteWho benefits by this? Westminster, because it's a distraction from what's really going on.