Autocrats see the world in zero sum ways: win vs lose, where they show determination and are winners and the West shows timidity and are losers. That is how they invariably see things. It is rigidly black and white. Issuing tough statements and shutting down a consulate is in Russia's eyes classic Western timidity.
The West reminds me of a notorious Irish judge who is endlessly weak on criminals and literally thinks that saying "you are being bold! Now stop it!" is being tough. A robber robbed a house I lived in. The Gardaí caught him. The case went to court, but when they heard what judge they had I remember a guard sighing and saying they had wasted their time. Sure enough the judge told the criminal to "stop being so bold" and gave him a short suspended sentence. The robber already had three suspended sentences having over him, but the Gardaí said to me that they didn't know what crime that robber had to commit to actually get sent to prison. I remember the robber walking out of the court and in the hall outside laughing at the Gardaí and giving them the finger. He knew that judge would effectively let him off. He always did.
The West's endless handwringing "tough talk but no serious action" approach is just like the judge.
It is worth reminding people that Putin says he is at war with Europe. Every single country. Not just NATO countries. All the neutrals too - Switzerland, Austria, Cyprus, Malta and Ireland. They are all targets according his ambassadors. The Russian ambassador made it clear that Ireland is a target and "will be dealt with."
The West thinks in terms of a gradient up to war, with cyber-attacks, drone attacks, etc as below war level. That is not how Russia thinks. It sees cyber-attacks and drone attacks as an actual war tactic. They saw the cyber-attacks on Ireland as war attacks. Of course the Irish government while knowing definitively Russia was behind them didn't even announce the fact publicly, instead saying they didn't know and investigations "are still ongoing." They actually finished investigations years ago and know precisely where they came from (right down to the building) and who ordered them. At least this time the Germans named who was responsible. Britain did not name who had planted parcel bombs in DHL, parcels that caught fire in a warehouse in Birmingham thankfully before they had been put on a plane.
No comments