This is the most significant deal involving the region since 1951 just as the original Cold War with the old communist Soviet Union was ramping up.
Russian boss Vladimir Putin had himself sparked a second front with the confrontation with Iran and the United States. Russia, in invading Ukraine, has found itself bogged down in Afghanistan Mark Two.
The Ukrainian conflict has become Russia’s Vietnam, and has descended into a war of attrition as casualties mount. Now with Western military aid, the Ukrainians are fighting back, fuelling speculation that a proxy war has developed between Moscow on one side, and Washington on the other - using Ukraine as the battlefield.
Historically, in terms of conventional wars when Russia was invaded, the Russians always deployed a simple tactic - retreat east towards Siberia as fast as possible and let the severe Russian winter do the rest. The French Emperor, German Kaiser and Nazi tyrant Hitler all learned the same bitter lessons over the centuries.
With the end of the Berlin Wall in Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union and fall of communism, NATO tended to sit on its laurels. Putin’s war in Ukraine is really the ex-KGB boss dipping his military toe in the conflict water; how far can be taunt NATO without the situation deteriorating into a full-blown nuclear World War Three?
Given Putin’s self-styled own triple alliance with China and North Korea, Moscow has worked on the assumption that NATO is either too scared or too ill-prepared for anyone seeking a military conflict with Western powers.
Realistically, Putin’s Ukraine strategy fell apart in the first week when the Russians failed to capture three key northern airports during the initial invasion.
This created a major logistical problem for Russia as it meant transporting supplies by road over long distances - ironically, the same scenario which befell the Nazis in the 1940s when they invaded Russia. The more the Soviets retreated east, the longer it took for the Germans to get much-needed supplies to frontline troops.
In Ukraine, the long supply route left the Russians vulnerable to drone attacks by the Ukrainians. How Putin must have yearned for a short, sharp snap campaign to take all of Ukraine; indeed, how frustrated must the Russian leader have been not to have been able to use his ballistic missiles to end the war in a matter of days.
Again, the Russians had to swallow some bitter reality medicine. They couldn’t use the same brutal tactics as they had deployed in the Russian region of Chechnya where allegations of chemical and biological weapons were used.
The Russians certainly could not afford to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine given how NATO may retaliate.
Trump has effectively called Putin’s bluff with the former’s second front in the Artic region which could seriously threaten Russia’s eastern flank.
If Putin thought he had a problem with Western-made drones striking Russia from Ukraine, what about the potential of US drones hitting Russian targets from the Artic?
In spite of the diplomatic decorum for the cameras at the public signing of the Artic deal, there still remains unease within Denmark and Greenland about Trump’s earlier flamboyant language concerning his desires on expanding American interests in the Artic region.
This has to be set in the context of Trump’s astute tactics of ensuring he usually get what he wants. He wanted to get US bases established and expanded in the Artic region before the Chinese or Russians moved in. So it was a case of ‘dial up the hardline rhetoric’, then give the appearance of pulling back - only to get what you wanted in the first place!
The Artic deal also puts additional pressure on the UK to support Trump’s tactics in the Middle East. And, of course, we should take Trump’s comments on supporting Irish unity with a large pinch of political salt. The real aim is to persuade Southern Ireland to abandon its military neutrality and join NATO as a full member.
With only a few years left on his Presidency, Trump wants his military legacy to be a really strong NATO - and United States - capable of combating any moves territorially by the triple alliance of Putin, China and North Korea - the so-called Axis of Evil.
Could this Axis policy be that China has been allocated the task of mainly cyber war; the North Koreans flashing their ballistic weapons testing, and Russia supplying the territorial provocation?
Ironically, Putin must secretly view the Trump Artic deal as the 1960s Cuban missile crisis in reverse!
Just as the old Soviet Union tried to get ballistic missiles located off the American coast in communist Cuba, so too, has Trump been able to secure a deal which will allow the Americans to base substantial weaponry within easy range of Russia’s eastern borders. Where Russia failed in the 1960s, Trump has succeeded in 2026.
If Trump is really smart militarily, it will not be just drones which are located on the two new planned US Artic bases. He should pack both bases with a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons.
And to really copper fasten this Artic deal, another deal must be on the cards. Bigger runways in Southern Ireland to facilitate American bombers, and Northern Ireland’s shipyards to service US nuclear submarines, warships and aircraft carriers.
Such a policy for the island of Ireland would require massive investment from the White House. Unionists and nationalists alike should now wonder what will be on the political cards for the Americans to gain such a military capacity.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Dr Coulter has been a journalist since 1978 and is currently a political commentator with GB News. |
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