1. Fine Gael will demand that any supports with electricity, etc Must be universal - meaning much of the money will go to millionaires (who admit to being embarrassed at getting it. Michael O'Leary called giving him those payments "disgusting").
Most of the money will go to people who don't need it and those that do will not get enough as so much is wasted on those that won't. Fianna Fáil, independents and the civil service will try to block such a dumb policy. Fine Gael will threaten to collapse the government unless all aid is "universal". So the dumb policy will continue - despite being condemned by every expert and everyone from the ESRI to the Fiscal Council. Fine Gael is fixated on the idea.
When working for Fine Gael I tried arguing against the idiotic idea of "universality" in payments. It was impossible to convince Fine Gaelers of the idiocy of the policy. Even the Fiscal Council, which is hardly left wing, calls the policy idiotic. However for some reason it is an article of faith for Fine Gael.
2. Harris will demand that social welfare recipients not get payments adjusted for inflation so he can give the middle and upper middle class tiny tax cuts. Fianna Fáil will say "over our dead body" and threaten to collapse the government. Fianna Fáil, thankfully, will win that one.
3. Chambers will demand cuts to spending on Defence, calling them savings, despite the fact that Defence in Ireland has been so chronically underfunded that there is no room whatsoever for cuts. Asking it to cut spending is like suggesting to a skeleton that they lose weight. Hopefully, Fine Gael will stand their ground on that one and threaten to walk if Defence spending is not increased as committed to.
4. Chambers will demand a complete embargo on hiring staff in the health service - despite mental health services chronically understaffed to such an extent that an "urgent" appointment, that elsewhere is provided in days or weeks in Ireland takes six months or more.
It is literally third world standard. That is not an exaggeration. It is quicker to get urgent appointments in much of Africa than it is in Ireland. In Britain there were calls on the health secretary to resign due to a delay of three Weeks. In that very week I was offered an "urgent" appointment eight Months away!
As a result there are people dying by suicide in every parish in Ireland as they cannot get appointments with psychologists. I have heard of a scary number of suicides in my home parish. I was in a group of people who used to meet weekly in a support group. Two of that group killed themselves entirely because of the lack of access to appointments. One young woman killed herself when for the fourth time her appointment was postponed and she was offered an appointment in the following year. She could not take it anymore. She killed herself. DPER simply saw that as having one less person to pay money to and one less person in the queue.
⏩ Jim Duffy is a writer-historian.
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