Whilst Andy Burnham is viewed by a section of Unionism in Northern Ireland as being on the Hard Left of Labour, during the Makerfield campaign, he clearly portrayed himself as being Soft Left.
But maybe that was a convenient tactic in any plot to oust current Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stressing that Red Andy is really a broad church of socialist opinions when it comes to appealing to the present crop of Labour MPs in the Commons.
Given the fact that Red Andy secured 55 per cent of the vote in Makerfield, some 9,000 plus votes ahead of the Right-wing Reform UK, the perception is being fuelled that Burnham is the man to ensure the political future of the so-called Red Wall of Labour-held constituencies.
There can be no doubting that after Labour’s electoral mauling in May’s elections in mainland Britain, when hundreds of Labour councillors lost their seats, the Scottish Nationalists remained in power north of the border, and Welsh Nationalists finally took control of the Welsh parliament, the clock was ticking rapidly on Starmer’s premiership.
Many Red Wall MPs were looking over their shoulders about the impact on their Commons seats if May’s disastrous results were replicated in the General Election, with Labour potentially losing dozens of seats on the Right to Reform UK and on the Left to the Green Party.
Okay, so it was only one by-election in England and the proverb states - one swallow does not make a summer. But Burnham was able to fend off any swing to the Right as happened in the council elections. The combined Right-wing vote of Reform UK and Restore Britain could only muster 42 per cent, while Burnham pushed the Labour showing up 10 per cent from the 2024 General Election.
Put bluntly, is Red Andy the man who can stop Reform UK boss Nigel Farage getting the keys to 10 Downing Street at the next Westminster showdown? More significantly, what would be the political implications for a Burnham administration for Northern Ireland?
A couple of generations have passed since there was a significant Labour presence in Ulster. The original Stormont Parliament saw the development of the Northern Ireland Labour Party as potentially a credible opposition to the Unionist Party.
But with the proroguing of Stormont in 1972, the NILP faded. For years, Northern Ireland socialists were told to join the moderate nationalist SDLP if they tried to join the British Labour Party.
There have been a few attempts at forming a Labour Party in Northern Ireland since 1972, but what is really needed is for British Labour to not just organise in the Province, but to contest elections.
Perhaps the fear among the Labour leadership at Westminster is that any move to contest elections could end up crashing and burning politically like the same fate which has befallen the Northern Ireland Tories.
Ulster socialists really don’t have much of a choice at the moment. Most parties are on the looney Left. Sinn Fein is communist; People Before Profit is a Trotskyite movement; the SDLP is Sinn Fein light, and Alliance is an integral part of the pan nationalist front.
On the unionist side, the Left-leaning Progressive Unionist Party is closely aligned to the terror gangs, the UVF and Red Hand Commando.
And long gone are the days when the pressure group, Unionist Labour, was a key component of the original Ulster Unionist Party which ran Northern Ireland for decades since partition in the 1920s.
Tactically, Burnham will have noted that on the night of his return to Parliament, the Scottish Nationalists also held their two Westminster seats in Commons by-elections.
If Burnham does manage to topple Starmer and become PM, he will have to put the brakes on the Reform UK bandwagon as well as combat the nationalist swings in Scotland and Wales.
With some opinion polls suggesting a hung Parliament after the next General Election, perhaps 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland becomes a key link in the chain for retaining Labour’s Commons majority - especially when Sinn Fein MPs still maintain their historically outdated abstentionist policy of not taking their Westminster seats.
If Burnham was to give the green light to Labour contesting elections in Northern Ireland, which council areas, Assembly seats and even Commons seats are winnable?
With many working class loyalists abandoning the ballot box and becoming part of an increasing ‘stay at home brigade’, could Labour be the key to encouraging the Protestant working class to re-engage with the electoral system?
Again put bluntly, has Burnham - if he does finally get his hands on the keys to 10 Downing Street - the ability to create a Red Wall in Northern Ireland?
In Unionism, the DUP historically under the late Rev Ian Paisley and currently the TUV under Jim Allister both gave a voice to working class loyalists.
If Burnham was to allow Labour to contest elections in Ulster, would it force the present Ulster Unionist and DUP leaderships to take more notice of Northern Ireland’s working classes?
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
Correction, John. SNP lost one of those seats to the Tories in Aberdeen in what was regarded as a local referendum on oil and gas licences in the North Sea.
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