Carrie Twomey ✍ Why Sinn Fein, and the government parties, need to ignore the siren song of the far right if they want to win elections.
Historically - even since inception - the Provisional version of Sinn Fein has always had tensions between its rosary brigade and Marxist leaning revolutionary wing. This was not a major problem while the conflict was hot. As the peace process continued, SF was able to manage those political tensions with casting the process as another form of struggle, utilising the differences between northern and southern political experiences as a sort of fudge for how it pitched itself in the south in the first decades of the new century.
Now that the peace process is as old as the conflict, and the IRA retired north and south, the rise of the far right has brought these tensions to the surface for the party. While Sinn Fein plays a deft hand in the sectarian fishbowl of northern politics - where bread and butter issues are rarely, if ever, campaigned on - it has not found firm footing in the southern milieu, despite its popularity in opinion polls.
This inability to translate poll popularity into consistent electoral gains has allowed the party leadership to become spooked by far right noise, deciding that pandering to its rosary brigade was a winning strategy. This has proven to be anything but, and government parties would do well to learn this lesson if they too do not want fractured by MAGA minions.
Had SF decided instead to lead with a genuine commitment to left wing principles (genuine and principles being two words not often associated with the party, though many of its members and supporters may be), along with keeping a focus on its pursuit of a united Ireland, the majority of its rosary brigade, being committed nationalists, would have done what they have always done: held their noses and continued to support the party as the only vehicle they see heading towards the promised land. Most of those voters are pragmatic in the sense that a United Ireland must always come first, the details can be fought over later.
Instead, as Sinn Fein has moved away from its committed pursuit of a United Ireland - even talk of politics as part of the struggle has been jettisoned as the active phase of the peace process recedes further into the past - it has split its personality between burnishing its left wing halo and playing footsie with farmy council hard men.
This has left the rosary brigade, who stuck with them through hard times because they were the ticket to a United Ireland, to not trust them on social issues and seeing the abandonment of the national question as a betrayal. That view has been easily exploited by the far right who are seeking to claim the mantle of Irish nationalism, and no longer have an IRA stopping them from doing so successfully.
The left wing of the party feels betrayed too, when it sees Sinn Fein consistently fail to follow through on basic tenets such as abortion rights, as was illustrated recently. Combine this with the dog whistling being done by senior figures on immigration and a general lack of leadership when it is needed to stand firmly against the worst kind of craven politicking, and dissatisfaction grows. Holly Cairns did not miss the mark in her quip about Sinn Fein needing to iron out its policies. People can feel, and see, the disingenuous nature of their inconsistency.
SF has fundamentally misunderstood its own base. Like many people the world over, it has let social media propagandists pull the wool over its eyes.
Thinking from what has been visible online in Ireland for the last few years that the far right was going to become the dominant destination for voters is a fatal, and dangerous, mistake. Many centrist and centre-left parties across Europe have discovered this to their detriment - as Labour in the UK is finding out.
The embrace of "Blue Labour" politics by the Labour Party is a good example of how moving right in response to populism is utter madness in this age of chimera. Setting aside the insanity of thinking millionaire advisers have their finger on the pulse of any average voter, in times of instability and crisis, the longer the crisis goes on, the more voters want competence and stability. The far right, by its nature, does not represent nor present as stable or confident. It rides on waves of discontent and thrives on whipping the waves higher. They are expert problem spotters, never problem solvers.
Tacking left in time of crisis - because the left is primarily concerned with equitable economic issues - while it may seem counterintuitive is the smarter move. The Greens in the UK understand this and are now mopping up support from the larger bulk of Labour's traditional working class base, the people who found themselves politically homeless when Labour steered right.
This is now Sinn Féin's problem, and potentially the problem of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael if they too follow the siren song of the far right fringe.
The lesson is in the fact that left voters voted Fine Gael to keep the far right out in Galway, and this led to victory for Fine Gael. Had Fine Gael attempted to compete with Independent Ireland as a peer, Independent Ireland would likely have taken the seat, with Fine Gael, like Sinn Fein did, losing its own voters to Independent Ireland as well as crucially failing to gain the necessary support of left transfers.
The majority of people in Ireland do not, and will not, support the far right. They do not, and will not, vote for the far right. They do, and will, vote for political parties that are not far right, and who will keep the far right from gaining power.
This is the consistent trend line in elections. Even with the small gains of the far right, the majority of voters are voting against them, not for them. Their gains are strongest when there is not a viable, competent left leaning alternative. When that is the case, their loss is greater. To win elections, parties must concentrate on being that alternative.
As much as Irish people love to give off about how terrible this, that, and the other are, the majority of the country wants stability and competence in charge of their government. They want fairness, and lean more to the left than they do right on social and financial issues.
Fringe parties are a safe outlet voters use to give off with, but not to install as the nation's stewards. The parties that recognise this and resist the urge to pander to inflated populist outrage - and who tack away from that outrage back into sanity - will always come home the winner. The ones who don't will end up wrecks on the shoals.
Sinn Fein, once seen as a bright promise because of its seemingly winning combination of left wing politics and a United Ireland vision, in abandoning both, is now turning into the biggest loser and a busted flush politically.
Historically - even since inception - the Provisional version of Sinn Fein has always had tensions between its rosary brigade and Marxist leaning revolutionary wing. This was not a major problem while the conflict was hot. As the peace process continued, SF was able to manage those political tensions with casting the process as another form of struggle, utilising the differences between northern and southern political experiences as a sort of fudge for how it pitched itself in the south in the first decades of the new century.
Now that the peace process is as old as the conflict, and the IRA retired north and south, the rise of the far right has brought these tensions to the surface for the party. While Sinn Fein plays a deft hand in the sectarian fishbowl of northern politics - where bread and butter issues are rarely, if ever, campaigned on - it has not found firm footing in the southern milieu, despite its popularity in opinion polls.
This inability to translate poll popularity into consistent electoral gains has allowed the party leadership to become spooked by far right noise, deciding that pandering to its rosary brigade was a winning strategy. This has proven to be anything but, and government parties would do well to learn this lesson if they too do not want fractured by MAGA minions.
Had SF decided instead to lead with a genuine commitment to left wing principles (genuine and principles being two words not often associated with the party, though many of its members and supporters may be), along with keeping a focus on its pursuit of a united Ireland, the majority of its rosary brigade, being committed nationalists, would have done what they have always done: held their noses and continued to support the party as the only vehicle they see heading towards the promised land. Most of those voters are pragmatic in the sense that a United Ireland must always come first, the details can be fought over later.
Instead, as Sinn Fein has moved away from its committed pursuit of a United Ireland - even talk of politics as part of the struggle has been jettisoned as the active phase of the peace process recedes further into the past - it has split its personality between burnishing its left wing halo and playing footsie with farmy council hard men.
This has left the rosary brigade, who stuck with them through hard times because they were the ticket to a United Ireland, to not trust them on social issues and seeing the abandonment of the national question as a betrayal. That view has been easily exploited by the far right who are seeking to claim the mantle of Irish nationalism, and no longer have an IRA stopping them from doing so successfully.
The left wing of the party feels betrayed too, when it sees Sinn Fein consistently fail to follow through on basic tenets such as abortion rights, as was illustrated recently. Combine this with the dog whistling being done by senior figures on immigration and a general lack of leadership when it is needed to stand firmly against the worst kind of craven politicking, and dissatisfaction grows. Holly Cairns did not miss the mark in her quip about Sinn Fein needing to iron out its policies. People can feel, and see, the disingenuous nature of their inconsistency.
SF has fundamentally misunderstood its own base. Like many people the world over, it has let social media propagandists pull the wool over its eyes.
Thinking from what has been visible online in Ireland for the last few years that the far right was going to become the dominant destination for voters is a fatal, and dangerous, mistake. Many centrist and centre-left parties across Europe have discovered this to their detriment - as Labour in the UK is finding out.
The embrace of "Blue Labour" politics by the Labour Party is a good example of how moving right in response to populism is utter madness in this age of chimera. Setting aside the insanity of thinking millionaire advisers have their finger on the pulse of any average voter, in times of instability and crisis, the longer the crisis goes on, the more voters want competence and stability. The far right, by its nature, does not represent nor present as stable or confident. It rides on waves of discontent and thrives on whipping the waves higher. They are expert problem spotters, never problem solvers.
Tacking left in time of crisis - because the left is primarily concerned with equitable economic issues - while it may seem counterintuitive is the smarter move. The Greens in the UK understand this and are now mopping up support from the larger bulk of Labour's traditional working class base, the people who found themselves politically homeless when Labour steered right.
This is now Sinn Féin's problem, and potentially the problem of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael if they too follow the siren song of the far right fringe.
The lesson is in the fact that left voters voted Fine Gael to keep the far right out in Galway, and this led to victory for Fine Gael. Had Fine Gael attempted to compete with Independent Ireland as a peer, Independent Ireland would likely have taken the seat, with Fine Gael, like Sinn Fein did, losing its own voters to Independent Ireland as well as crucially failing to gain the necessary support of left transfers.
The majority of people in Ireland do not, and will not, support the far right. They do not, and will not, vote for the far right. They do, and will, vote for political parties that are not far right, and who will keep the far right from gaining power.
This is the consistent trend line in elections. Even with the small gains of the far right, the majority of voters are voting against them, not for them. Their gains are strongest when there is not a viable, competent left leaning alternative. When that is the case, their loss is greater. To win elections, parties must concentrate on being that alternative.
As much as Irish people love to give off about how terrible this, that, and the other are, the majority of the country wants stability and competence in charge of their government. They want fairness, and lean more to the left than they do right on social and financial issues.
Fringe parties are a safe outlet voters use to give off with, but not to install as the nation's stewards. The parties that recognise this and resist the urge to pander to inflated populist outrage - and who tack away from that outrage back into sanity - will always come home the winner. The ones who don't will end up wrecks on the shoals.
Sinn Fein, once seen as a bright promise because of its seemingly winning combination of left wing politics and a United Ireland vision, in abandoning both, is now turning into the biggest loser and a busted flush politically.
⏩Carrie Twomey hates Illinois Nazis (just like the Blues Brothers)
The days of catch-all parties is gone. This is evidenced by the decline in vote of what used to be called the mainstream parties - the two parties that competed with each other and have led sucessive governments since the foundation of the State, now find themselves forced to coalesce.
ReplyDeleteSinn Féin are the largest opposition party and that, at best, remains their destiny. I can't presently see much opportunity for them to increase their vote share.
Though further fragmentation seems likely I still tend to believe that Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil will be central to the next administration. The centre will hold.