These elections in England were for local councils and are never a great barometer of how a governing party’s fortunes are holding up. Council elections rarely are mirrored in a general election but that is normally when the loses have been moderate to slightly heavy for the governing party. This was a little different as these losses amount to 1,400 seats largely to the far-right Reform UK, it was a drubbing.
Back in the nineteen-eighties many people voted with a protest vote at council elections voting for the fascist British National Party (BNP) councillors but nothing on this scale. This appears more than a regular protest and is concerning not only for the British Labour Party but all anti-fascists generally. Reform were undoubtedly the big winners and the BBC poll, the Projected National Share (PNS), which is calculated in 1,000 council wards predicted if people voted along similar lines in a general election it would make the far-right Reform the largest party on 26% of the vote share. The PNS puts the Greens in second on 18% followed by Labour and Conservatives on 17% each. If this is correct it shows up how broken the British electoral voting system of First Past the Post in general elections really is. It is not fit for purpose when a party with just 26% of the vote could form a government. As far-right parties across Europe have been gathering momentum is it an indication that the memories of fascism and the Second World War are fading? Or, are today’s voters not worried by the presence of authoritarian dictatorial parties governing them? Whatever the reason, and immigration is often the major or even only concern voiced by people - wrongly in my view - the presence of the far-right even neo fascism cannot be denied.
Reform by their own admission have no experience of government but have, they maintain, a lot of “business” organisational knowhow, and Reform representatives often criticise the Labour Government for having no “business experience”. This suggests a Reform UK government may introduce corporatism, private enterprise, into the system of government in Britain. This was central to Benito Musolini’s fascist regime in Italy and resulted in the banning outright of trade unions and trade union membership as was also the case in Nazi Germany. Trade unions were replaced with state run bodies like Hitlers ‘Labour Front’ which resulted in worsening pay and conditions and the erosion of worker’s rights! In effect corporatism brings big business into government and the country is organised like a large corporation with the electorate being the employees, with no trade union representation and very few rights. Could a Reform government go down this avenue?
Reform by their own admission have no experience of government but have, they maintain, a lot of “business” organisational knowhow, and Reform representatives often criticise the Labour Government for having no “business experience”. This suggests a Reform UK government may introduce corporatism, private enterprise, into the system of government in Britain. This was central to Benito Musolini’s fascist regime in Italy and resulted in the banning outright of trade unions and trade union membership as was also the case in Nazi Germany. Trade unions were replaced with state run bodies like Hitlers ‘Labour Front’ which resulted in worsening pay and conditions and the erosion of worker’s rights! In effect corporatism brings big business into government and the country is organised like a large corporation with the electorate being the employees, with no trade union representation and very few rights. Could a Reform government go down this avenue?
Another question the electorate should ask themselves at the next British general election before they cast their vote is; if Reform UK were to become the government in Westminster, could it signal the end of liberal democracy and elections in Britain? The last far-right Prime Minister Britain had was Margaret Thatcher but fortunately her party were, though right-wing, not far-right or fascist as was the case with her. When she was ousted as Conservative and Unionist Party leader in 1990, she demanded to remain as PM. She had to be virtually physically removed from that office and was succeeded by John Major, a more moderate Tory.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, was a Thatcherite, a true-blue disciple of Thatcher, and today is a supporter of Trump in the US. Could a Reform UK government put elections into the dustbin of history? Well, Mussolini did in Italy during the twenties as did Hitler did in Germany back in the nineteen thirties and Farage does share some Hitlerite policies like locking immigrants, legal or otherwise, away in remote old army bases similar to concentration camps! Should this come to pass in Britain would anybody protest? Would they dare? Or would they, as was the case in Nazi Germany, just go along with it pretending to agree, fearful of doing anything different?
Voters should think very carefully before going down the Reform UK unknown entity avenue, though there is an argument which encourages this leap into the unknown and that is; ‘we won’t know till we’ve tried’! Very true but the problem here is a reversal of the electoral decision to elect a Reform government may well prove irreversible? Just a word of caution!
For those in the Six-Counties who think Farage and Reform will give a ‘border poll’ forget that, they are a strong UK party, a Unionist party, a party whose aims are to strengthen the United Kingdom not weaken it, and though they may make noises sounding as if a border poll might be on their agenda do not bank on it. They could weaponise such a poll, calling a snap vote on Irish unification at a point when it would almost certainly go against Irish unity. Farage would then probably tell all nationalists, including the Twenty-Six-County government; ‘you have had your poll now that’s an end to it’!
In Scotland, elections to the Scottish parliament at Holyrood were being held. Again bad news for the Labour Party was in store. The results there were a fifth term in government for the Scottish National Party (SNP), once called ‘Tartan Toryies', now considered to be to the left of Labour, winning 58 seats. The SNP are down six seats from sixty-four held previously which is significant because the magic number for an overall majority is sixty-five leaving the SNP weaker in this regard than previous. Labour and Reform UK came joint second with 17 seats each, with the Greens coming third with 15 seats, the Conservative and Unionist Party finished fourth with 12 seats and the Liberal Democrats claiming 10 seats. Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader, John Swinney, is already making noises about another referendum on Scottish independence and why wouldn’t he? A different voting system is applied in Scotland for regional elections to Holyrood with the age of majority being sixteen as opposed to eighteen in a British general election. The system is a little complex for explanation here but involves party lists and constituency MSPs giving the voter two votes.
In Wales the picture for Labour was no brighter with the party leader and First Minister, Eluned Morgan, losing her seat - a major setback. Plaid Cymru won 43 of the 96 Senedd seats with Reform UK coming second securing 34 seats. Labour, hitherto the largest party in Wales, came in with a miserable 9 seats! All in all a very bad day for the British Labour Party and in particular party leader and Prime Minister, Keir Starmer.
In Scotland, elections to the Scottish parliament at Holyrood were being held. Again bad news for the Labour Party was in store. The results there were a fifth term in government for the Scottish National Party (SNP), once called ‘Tartan Toryies', now considered to be to the left of Labour, winning 58 seats. The SNP are down six seats from sixty-four held previously which is significant because the magic number for an overall majority is sixty-five leaving the SNP weaker in this regard than previous. Labour and Reform UK came joint second with 17 seats each, with the Greens coming third with 15 seats, the Conservative and Unionist Party finished fourth with 12 seats and the Liberal Democrats claiming 10 seats. Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader, John Swinney, is already making noises about another referendum on Scottish independence and why wouldn’t he? A different voting system is applied in Scotland for regional elections to Holyrood with the age of majority being sixteen as opposed to eighteen in a British general election. The system is a little complex for explanation here but involves party lists and constituency MSPs giving the voter two votes.
In Wales the picture for Labour was no brighter with the party leader and First Minister, Eluned Morgan, losing her seat - a major setback. Plaid Cymru won 43 of the 96 Senedd seats with Reform UK coming second securing 34 seats. Labour, hitherto the largest party in Wales, came in with a miserable 9 seats! All in all a very bad day for the British Labour Party and in particular party leader and Prime Minister, Keir Starmer.
Could these disastrous results for Labour be replicated in a general election? If the polls are correct and at this moment in time well, they probably could be mirrored. These elections resulted in nationalist First Ministers in Scotland, “Northern Ireland” (the Six-Counties), and Wales. Starmer has no worries on this front, at least not immediately, because all these leaders are singing from different hymn sheets. John Swinney, Scottish First Minister, wants an independence referendum right now. Michele O’Neil, First Minister in Stormont, wants a unification referendum by 2030, while Plaid Cymru and expected First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, did not even mention Welsh independence. It appears no unity of minds on the subject of independence or unification referenda among these nationalist leaders. This may come as some relief to Keir Starmer and his government short term.
After this drubbing taken by the party many Labour MPs are demanding Starmer sets an exit plan, a time frame for him leaving, to step down or plainly fucking off. As bad as Starmer is he, like Tony Blair before him, is not a Labour traditional leader or Prime Minister in the Clement Atlee or Harold Wilson mould. The modern British Labour Party bear few similarities to the genuine article and the party’s shift to the right has cost them dearly. To the left of Labour are the Greens who, like their counterparts Reform UK on the far-right, made huge gains in these elections at Labours expense. So, should the PM stand aside? In my view it would be a mistake for Starmer, bad as he may be, to step down because this may well cause a general election. If a new leader were elected, he or she may come under pressure to go to the country and would undoubtedly lose any election. Of course any new leader could refer to John Major becoming leader of the Conservatives replacing Thatcher and not going to the country. They could also look to the example of the walking disaster, Liz ‘take the piss out of MPs’ Truss, who had a brief spell, the blink of an eye, as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister. She was in charge for a couple of hours but again no election was called when Rishi Sunak replaced her unopposed as party leader and Prime Minister. The Conservatives had a huge majority but so too, this time round, do Labour. So, a general election should Starmer resign is not inevitable, though opposition parties would hammer the point. Starmer should, all the same, hang on in there because the alternative is unthinkable, a far-right government who may if elected by sufficient numbers drop their pretence and declare themselves what they are suspected of being, fascist in all but name!
It was not a great day at the races for the main opposition party the Conservative and Unionists led by Kemi Badenoch. They too had huge losses but their losses were less than Labours due to the fact they did not have that many to lose. The Conservatives were drubbed in the 2024 general election by Starmer’s Labour Party and their representation at council level was not great. Of Essex Councils 78 seats in Kemi Badenoch’s backyard Reform won 53 while the Conservatives came in with a paltry 13 seats, down from the 52 they won in 2021. If their representation was not great before these council elections, now it is less than that!
After this drubbing taken by the party many Labour MPs are demanding Starmer sets an exit plan, a time frame for him leaving, to step down or plainly fucking off. As bad as Starmer is he, like Tony Blair before him, is not a Labour traditional leader or Prime Minister in the Clement Atlee or Harold Wilson mould. The modern British Labour Party bear few similarities to the genuine article and the party’s shift to the right has cost them dearly. To the left of Labour are the Greens who, like their counterparts Reform UK on the far-right, made huge gains in these elections at Labours expense. So, should the PM stand aside? In my view it would be a mistake for Starmer, bad as he may be, to step down because this may well cause a general election. If a new leader were elected, he or she may come under pressure to go to the country and would undoubtedly lose any election. Of course any new leader could refer to John Major becoming leader of the Conservatives replacing Thatcher and not going to the country. They could also look to the example of the walking disaster, Liz ‘take the piss out of MPs’ Truss, who had a brief spell, the blink of an eye, as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister. She was in charge for a couple of hours but again no election was called when Rishi Sunak replaced her unopposed as party leader and Prime Minister. The Conservatives had a huge majority but so too, this time round, do Labour. So, a general election should Starmer resign is not inevitable, though opposition parties would hammer the point. Starmer should, all the same, hang on in there because the alternative is unthinkable, a far-right government who may if elected by sufficient numbers drop their pretence and declare themselves what they are suspected of being, fascist in all but name!
It was not a great day at the races for the main opposition party the Conservative and Unionists led by Kemi Badenoch. They too had huge losses but their losses were less than Labours due to the fact they did not have that many to lose. The Conservatives were drubbed in the 2024 general election by Starmer’s Labour Party and their representation at council level was not great. Of Essex Councils 78 seats in Kemi Badenoch’s backyard Reform won 53 while the Conservatives came in with a paltry 13 seats, down from the 52 they won in 2021. If their representation was not great before these council elections, now it is less than that!
Will the Tories demand the head of Badenoch? Highly unlikely. They will in all probability divert their losses into attacking Keir Starmer and demanding he steps down. The Tories, like Labour, know in a general election - if called tomorrow - they would be hammered and Badenoch would be a handy scapegoat to blame, they’re good at that.
It is my prediction both leaders, Starmer and Badenoch, will stay in place for the time being because the alternative is not worth thinking about, a Reform UK government! This scenario does put the Conservatives in a slightly stronger position than Labour because if an election were to be called and Reform won, but not with the huge majority some expect, then a deal with the Tories is always possible. Many Reform UK candidates in any general election will be former Tory defectors. Therefore, a parliamentary pact between the right-wing and far-right is a strong possibility given certain conditions.
Either way it spells bad news for Labour who, thankfully, still have the ball as far as elections go in their court! They will not by any rule or protocol be forced to call an election should Starmer go, unless Parliament votes for one. However opposition MPs would make huge waves in the Commons should the government not go to the country with a new leader at a time when Labour need to regroup and lick their wounds. They still have a huge majority in the House and could ride the storm. Starmer needs to rally his backbenchers at a time when unity, even a façade of agreement, will be paramount.
Labour's recent history of supporting the party leader is not great: remember Jeremy Corbyn? Will they do the same to Starmer or will they, albeit reluctantly, back him?
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| Caoimhin O’Muraile is Independent Socialist Republican and Marxist. |
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