But another political D-Day will take place next month with the high profile Makerfield Westminster by-election, which could eventually decide the future, not just of current PM Keir Starmer, but also of the entire Labour Government.
Flying the red flag for Labour is the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, with many pundits suggesting winning Makerfield would be a convenient stepping stone to get Red Andy back into the House of Commons so that he can launch a leadership bid against Starmer.
But why the nickname Red Andy? His campaign team are branding him as being on the so-called Soft Left of Labour. Right-wing political commentators like myself view Burnham as being on the Hard Left of the party; he’s just very clever - unlike a former Labour boss Jeremy Corbyn - at hiding his extreme socialist beliefs.
However, all this talk of leadership plots and coups may be a tad premature. Red Andy is not 100 per cent guaranteed of winning the Makerfield seat!
The constituency - as we approach the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum - is viewed as a solidly ‘Leave’ region, as demonstrated by the surge in the anti-EU Reform UK vote in the local government elections earlier this month.
If Red Andy wants to ‘do a King Canute’ and hold back the Reform party tide, he will have to distance himself from the political gossip that Labour wants to renegotiate a closer post-Brexit relationship with the EU at the least; at worst, wants to hold another referendum aimed at getting the UK to rejoin the EU.
That sort of political chit-chat will not sit well with the pro-Brexit voters in Makerfield and could hand the Commons seat to Reform on a silver platter. Like the fallers at the first fence at the famous Grand National horse race, Red Andy could potentially face the embarrassment of not becoming an MP and being pipped at the post by a buoyant Nigel Farage party.
Likewise, we should not assume that a Red Andy victory in Makerfield will automatically signal the end of the Starter regime in 10 Downing Street. Labour, like the Ulster Unionist Party in 1998 in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement, is a party at war with itself.
Given the almost apocalyptic results in mainland Britain in May’s elections, many Labour MPs could be looking over their shoulders at what a potential General Election could hold for them.
Would a change of PM followed by a snap General Election be enough to hold their seats rather than waiting a couple of years until the present mandate ends?
Would there be those in the Starmer camp, who when facing the prospect of certain defeat in a leadership election, could trigger a situation where the country is instead sent back to the polls in the General Election rather than a simple transition of power within Labour in Downing Street?
If May’s election results were replicated in a General Election within the next 12 months, for example, the impressive current Labour majority would politically evaporate and Nigel Farage would be handed the keys of 10 Downing Street.
Is the present Labour civil war so bitter that some would rather see Farage in power rather than allow Red Andy to succeed Starmer? And as for Northern Ireland, how would unionism, nationalism and others react to a Red Andy-led Labour Government?
Unlike the Conservatives, Labour has consistently refused to contest elections in Northern Ireland, preferring instead to see the moderate nationalist SDLP as its sister party. But how many working class Unionist socialists would actually vote for the SDLP?
With some predictions saying the next General Election could throw up a hung parliament, and with 18 seats up for grabs in Northern Ireland, could a Red Andy administration be tempted to cast aside Labour’s refusal to run candidates and decide to go head to head with Ulster-based parties?
After all, Sinn Fein refuses to take its seats in Westminster, so potentially there’s half a dozen seats up for grabs for Labour.
And with Northern Ireland being left behind the rest of the UK in the Brexit outcome, could a more pro-EU Red Andy Government get a better deal from Brussels for the Province, given that Northern Ireland voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum?
The Burnham camp will also have to deal with how it sees off the threat from the Green Party, which also made significant gains in the mainland Britain elections. The Greens’ decision to portray themselves as the protest party of the Left worked tactically with many voters.
At the moment, Makerfield is shaping up to be a political two-horse race between Red Andy and Reform UK. But there can only be one winner. And that winner could ultimately decide who becomes, or remains, PM.
If Sir Keir had a vote in Makerfield, I wonder in the privacy of the voting booth, who he could cast his vote tactically for? If I was a Starmerite, the last person I’d want in the Commons is Red Andy!
 |
| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
No comments