They don't want it be. They just believe it is. Arguably it died with the invention of nuclear weapons. The Second Hague Convention was based on the theory that neutral states could proclaim a cordon sanitaire around themselves and tell other countries 'leave us out of this' - with signatories bound by a promise (worthless, as it was shown in both World Wars) that they would leave a neutral alone.
Nuclear weapons obliterated that theory as the effects of nuclear war don't stop at borders. Whether you are a belligerent or a neutral is irrelevant to the fall-out.
Add to that, the concept of state independence really died in the second half of the twentieth century. Once upon a time, states could operate largely self-sufficiently. However the modern economy is intertwined with others to a minute degree. It is why Trump's tariffs have bombed. He thought the US functions in the way it functioned under the pro-tariff President McKinley. The modern economy is dependent on integrated manufacturing chains, with American car makers dependent on parts made in Canada and Europe, key battery components from China and Africa that required items the US cannot mine. All his tariffs did was cause all sorts of chaos in the integration, collapsing US industries like agriculture. Tariffs are not workable in interdependent economies.
European leaders realised the days of independent sovereign states is over. To survive they have to pool sovereignty - which they have done with the EEC/EC/EU. Britain conned itself into thinking it could return to the old days with Brexit. All it did was marginalise itself, suffer colossal economic damage, and find a decade on that it still hasn't got trade deals it thought would be delivered in weeks!
That interdependence really spelled the death knell of neutrality, as it was militarily, economically and in other ways impossible to function as some sort of cordon sanitaire - even if countries obeyed the gentlemen's agreement not to attack neutrals (which in both world wars they broke). The Cork base of medical technology company Stryker by Iranian cyber-attack shows the modern weakness of neutrality. Being in a neutral state made no difference. The same occurred with the Russian cyber-attack on Ireland's HSE, and the Russian cyber-attacks on the parliaments in neutrals Austria and Switzerland.
The Second Hague Convention is based on a world that no longer exists, and arguably started disappearing in the 1920s.
The issue isn't that neutrals don't want to be neutral. It is a growing belief in them that neutrality is meaningless in an interdependent world.
That growing belief can be seen in Europe's longest lasting neutral. The Treaty of Westphalia in October 1648 ended the Thirty Years War. It recognised that Switzerland was already a long-term neutral. Much of that neutrality was a product of its geography - which made it exceptionally difficult to invade. Yet in the last couple of years Switzerland has found itself increasingly unable to avoid international conflicts that seeped into its economic and financial system. In a break with the past, it condemned Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and acted with greater hostility towards Russia than it had ever done in its hundreds of years of neutrality. It wasn't looking to abandon its neutrality, but didn't see how it could remain neutral in a war that was impacting on it. The Cordon Sanitaire model was no longer working.
Now it has found itself having to condemn the illegal US war against Iran, and also the reckless actions of Iran which risk serious economic damage to Switzerland. It no longer lives in a world where a declaration of neutrality means a war will not touch it. It will be impacted upon.
It still wants to be neutral. So do Ireland, Malta and Austria. (Cyprus wants to join NATO.) But they all fear that in the 21st century, with vital economic interdependence, of hostile actions targeting them, and with the likes of Putin and Trump who have no intention of respecting anyone's neutrality, plus with the effects of weapons of mass destruction, no country really can be on its own and have a cordon sanitaire.
Switzerland is increasing defence spending to 1% of GDP by 2030, a target written in law by Parliament. Austria has upped its target to 1.3% by 2032 and is nearly at 1%. They are realising that neutrality without sufficient defence spending is worthless. But behind it is the fear that for all their commitment to it, neutrality is no longer a feasible option in the modern world. Like cavalry charges of old, they fear the reality of the modern world is making it worthless and ineffective. It is a thought that worries them, haunting their nightmares. They don't want to give it up, yet fear it is just a bit of self-delusion and not a viable option. It is the unspoken truth in the back of their minds.
⏩ Jim Duffy is a writer-historian.
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