The economy cannot survive without migration, so the Government must use the welfare state to insulate the poorest against far-right narratives
Ireland needs an increased flow of migrants to sustain the economy in the coming years.
However, the State needs to be far more progressive as a welfare state if it is to prevent the continuing rise of anti-immigrant and racist sentiment, where vulnerable and deprived people are having their fears hijacked by the hard-right.
The CSO published population and labour-force projections last year, starting with Census 2022 up to 2057. In order to keep the population from falling, on average 2.2 children need to be born per woman each year. This total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.2 is what’s need to keep the population replacing itself — known as the replacement rate.
From the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, this rate stood at close to four, meaning that a typical Irish family had four children. It stayed up at 2.5 until the late 1980s, but by 1990, it had fallen to 2.12, meaning that, in the absence of net inward migration (which did happen, and which fuelled the high-growth Irish economy for most of the time since then), the population would have started to fall.
As of Census 2022, the TFR has dropped sharply to 1.55, and is projected by the CSO to drop to as low as 1.3 over the next 33 years. The high fertility rates in the 30 years from 1960 to 1990 meant that Ireland had a large young working population from the late 1970s. But these generations have started to reach retirement age, while we lost a large number of non-returning Irish emigrants in the 1980s.
So, in the coming 30 years or so, the previously large young working age Irish population will get old and very old. There were 780,000 people over 65 in Ireland in 2022.
Continue @ Irish Examiner.
The CSO published population and labour-force projections last year, starting with Census 2022 up to 2057. In order to keep the population from falling, on average 2.2 children need to be born per woman each year. This total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.2 is what’s need to keep the population replacing itself — known as the replacement rate.
From the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, this rate stood at close to four, meaning that a typical Irish family had four children. It stayed up at 2.5 until the late 1980s, but by 1990, it had fallen to 2.12, meaning that, in the absence of net inward migration (which did happen, and which fuelled the high-growth Irish economy for most of the time since then), the population would have started to fall.
As of Census 2022, the TFR has dropped sharply to 1.55, and is projected by the CSO to drop to as low as 1.3 over the next 33 years. The high fertility rates in the 30 years from 1960 to 1990 meant that Ireland had a large young working population from the late 1970s. But these generations have started to reach retirement age, while we lost a large number of non-returning Irish emigrants in the 1980s.
So, in the coming 30 years or so, the previously large young working age Irish population will get old and very old. There were 780,000 people over 65 in Ireland in 2022.
Continue @ Irish Examiner.
"The economy cannot survive without migration"
ReplyDeleteIt did pretty good for decades particularly during the Tiger years.
"Ireland needs an increased flow of migrants to sustain the economy in the coming years."
-Ignores the fact that young Irish are emigrating in record numbers due to mass uncontrolled immigration and the subsequent pressure on housing stock /jobs. How do these migrants sustain the economy when there simply aren't that many jobs or university places?
Let's check in on this around Christmas 2026.
we could always build a wall and keep the young Irish in!!!
DeleteSteve - You might want to analyse the Tiger years a little more closely.
DeleteYou've mentioned university places and jobs before, but I never see any data being presented for any of your claims. The article does provide labour-force projections, are you disputing these projections, and if so, why?
I don't think the article ignores emigration, it doesn't give unfounded generalisations as to why there is an increase in emigration, but it does allude that if the current birth rate projections are accurate, there will be less Irish born to be able emigrate in the future.
Out of personal curiosity, where exactly are these young Irish emigrating to?
They are more than welcome in Australia!! Plenty of work, a good lifestyle and the Irish integrate well into Australian society. More please lol
DeleteThe Dept of Housing released an online video ( since deleted ) this week encouraging adults to return living in their parents homes . A ten fold increase in currency adjusted Dublin residential rents & house prices during the past three decades has made many parts of the capital make New York city suburbs seem dirt cheap by comparison .
ReplyDeleteThe old gag about Jesus being Irish is truer today than ever before - # 33 , single , lived with parents . Don't tell Rev Jon Coulter . Boom .
I'd love to jump on board with this one, migrants are welcome and needed, increase wealth towards the poor, stop the racists, it seems cut and dried.
ReplyDeleteLet's dig into it a little though.
Firstly, it seems overly reliant on accurate labour-force and economic projections. It also doesn't take into account other variables. One important variable I feel should be included, is the future projections of AI and automation replacing people across ALL sectors. I have heard quite a few in the tech industry ringing alarm bells about this, and should their forecasts be accurate, I feel it should be towards the forefront of everyone's concern. My apologies for not taking the time myself to factor in any additional numbers with those of the article, perhaps I will on another occasion. If Tom O'Connor happens to read this comment, perhaps he himself is better placed to add the appropriate variables to what I think is quite a tricky equation.
As for Governments and States tackling all the social and economic issues mentioned in the article. I'd have to agree, they should do more, and perhaps as suggested, it could possibly help to "prevent the continuing rise of anti-immigrant and racist sentiment". Here's the problem I see with that...Hoarders will hoard. Racists will be racist.
I personally feel that wealth distribution could solve many problems in the world. Unfortunately I also feel quite pessimistic about that being achieved anytime soon. The reason behind the pessimism is division. There is always some issue that crops up to keep us all divided. Immigration is the latest easy option to be used as an excuse for people's woes. And while they are focusing on the immigrants, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and science and technology leaps and bounds forward.
No need to say "don't be racist, we need migrants", I think simply "don't be racist" is the line to take. The super wealthy and ruling classes will continue to hoard, they will continue to stoke fears and hatred and use any excuse to deflect attention away from their greed. Science and technological advancement certainly won't wait for anyone to sort out their prejudices. Perhaps something can be done to address these bigger issues as soon as some of the misguided realise, we're all in the same dinghy. Time to do this is fast running out.