Others will certainly enter the fray as serious contenders. That would exclude the leader of the MIRA (Make Ireland Rape Again). Misogynist McGregor will huff and puff but will not blow the Aras away with his bellicose bellowing. The thought of a woman presiding over the country from Phoenix Park will infuriate him, when in his mind all she deserves is a black eye.
As the sole candidate from the Left, Catherine Connolly has a chance of winning, her discourse on Gaza chiming with the public mood which is one of outright hostility to Israeli genocide. When she visited Drogheda on Wednesday, it was heartening to see so many from our weekly Gaza vigil in attendance, one of whom, Bobby McCormack, compered the event in Droichead Arts Centre. Their turnout underlines the importance of returning Catherine Connolly.
As the sole candidate from the Left, Catherine Connolly has a chance of winning, her discourse on Gaza chiming with the public mood which is one of outright hostility to Israeli genocide. When she visited Drogheda on Wednesday, it was heartening to see so many from our weekly Gaza vigil in attendance, one of whom, Bobby McCormack, compered the event in Droichead Arts Centre. Their turnout underlines the importance of returning Catherine Connolly.
Already the conservative political lobby and media are circling Connolly like prey in the kill zone hoping that she will wilt like a baby gazelle in the face of hyenas. It is their hope that some past judgement calls, not all of them prudent, by Ms Connolly will see her undone. Yet, one of her sharp and serious detractors, accepts:
Connolly has won cross-party admiration in the Dáil as an Independent TD, as a dogged inquisitor of wrongdoing and as a history-making first female Leas-Cheann Comhairle. Her sincere principles of social equality, human rights and pacifism appeal to many voters abhorred by the US military’s use of Shannon Airport, the EU’s spinelessness in tackling Israel’s genocide in Gaza, the racism underlying anti-immigrant protests and the planned dilution of Ireland’s neutrality.
The real threat to the Connolly campaign, however, comes not from the conservative camp but from the possibility of Sinn Fein throwing its hat in the ring. The party is said to be split over whether to enter the race. Pressure is growing from within the domineering Belfast ranks for a Sinn Fein candidate to take to the field. The argument is that with a candidate of the stature of Mary Lou McDonald, if she can be cajoled into running - even if the Aras is not attainable - the boost for a united Ireland campaign will be considerable.
Belfast Sinn Fein has not been as ardent in its support for the people of Gaza as other sections of the party. In the midst of he genocide all the party's councillors at Belfast City Hall abstained from voting when the Left proposed expelling the Israeli ambassador from Ireland. Sinn Fein in general is much more radical on the Palestine question than either Fine Fail or Fianna Gael yet it failed the victims of Israeli crimes against humanity lamentably when it turned up at Genocide Joe's Patrick's Day junket. Biden and his administration were the substantive power behind the genocide because they alone had the power to stop it by refusing to arm it.
Sinn Fein was encouraged by its former leader Gerry Adams to attend the Genocide jamboree. His reason was simple: Sinn Fein must primarily focus on its own project. That project is a united Ireland. The pressure currently building up in Belfast flows from the same logic: that a presidential run with or without victory will enhance the push for Sinn Fein's vision of a united Ireland immeasurably.
This might be true although unlikely. Regardless of who is President, the veto over Irish unity remains with a majority in the North as it always has since the inception of partition. The Presidency, regardless of who holds it, is unlikely to have any discernable impact on that particular numbers game.
A united Ireland is a laudable idea. The thought of breaking from genocide enablers like Keir Starmer and his gang of cronies has much appeal. Yet, even in the absence of a united Ireland, whatever suffering partition causes, it is not remotely comparable with the horrendous misery endured in Gaza as a result of the genocide. As someone immersed in both republican activism and republican ideas for more than half a century, and who values the concept of a united Ireland, I am of the view that at this critical juncture in global politics, a united Ireland simply is not at the top of the priority list. Halting genocide is. Irish society needs to place in the Aras the person most likely to rally international opinion against Israeli atrocity. Mary Lou McDonald, were she to contend, would undoubtedly offer a strong voice against genocide. However as a veteran observer of Sinn Fein - the political commentator Brian Feeney - warns, the party's:
only credible candidate would be Mary Lou McDonald, and so many problems would be created by her running. She just can’t win.
Which means if she does contest, neither she nor Connolly will win. On her own, with Sinn Fein support, Catherine Connolly at least has a fighting chance of making it across the line.
Sinn Fein members who have been active in the anti-genocide movement, who have stood beside us on the streets and roads of Drogheda, should be encouraged to push back against any proposal from Belfast or elsewhere that might jeopardise a unity candidate. Sinn Fein, if it throws its considerable bulk behind Catherine Connolly's campaign, will help project onto the global screen a President who will set her face like stone against genocide. The party will help hasten the end of Israeli crimes against humanity in the sure certainty that a united Ireland, whenever it arrives, will not be delayed by one day as a result.
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