This month Sinn Féin leaders were in London to campaign for an Irish Unity referendum within the next 5 years. The SF leader Mary Lou McDonald was on national UK television making her case for a referendum, while also highlighting the need to initiate discussions at an early stage on how the structures of both statelets, the 6 Counties in the North and Free State in the South, may be amalgamated before a vote on Irish reunification takes place. In this regard the success of reunification would depend upon a coherent amalgamation of both economies, social systems and in policing and legal frameworks and so on. This is fundamental to the success of Irish reunification and it is indeed sensible to set the scene well in advance so as to make the transition as smooth as possible.
Indeed the key point reiterated by McDonald throughout was that the process and referendum shall be subject to a democratic process, and therefore in essence be sacrosanct. Meaning that whatever the outcome Unionists and Nationalists alike must accept and abide by it come what may. Indeed in the event of reunification it is vital that Unionism and Loyalism be allowed to express and celebrate their cultural differences as they see fit while playing an active role in government and in developing fiscal policy within the 32 Counties of Ireland.
Of course this is all easier said and done and I am assuming that McDonald and Sinn Féin are all too aware and are prepared for the stark reality inherent to a reunification referendum. Firstly, any call for a reunification referendum depends solely on the British government, with the underlying mechanics of the referendum or ‘border poll’ designed to recognise and copperfasten partition. It is perhaps telling how Sinn Féin appear to have dropped the term ‘border poll’ in this latest campaign, but nevertheless the process will in fact involve two referendums each to be taken individually. One referendum in the Northern 6 Counties and the other in the remaining 26 in the South, and moreover both to be called at not necessarily the same time. This is something Sinn Féin have accepted for it is no secret that they have conceded the long held party line that an all Ireland vote must be allowed to take place subject to the wishes of the Irish people made in 1918 and ratified by the First Dáil in 1919, and all before the war of Independence and partition of Ireland in 1921. This is a key point as it is one where the opinions of other strands of Irish republicans would diverge dramatically. Yet evidently Sinn Féin are in this for the long game and by accepting the partitionist line they wish to convince Northern Unionism that they have nothing to fear from a reunified Ireland.
Another issue is the criteria required for the British to even consider a border poll, with the key word here being ‘consider’, for even if such criterions are met there can be no guarantee that a border poll will arise. The driving criteria required is one whereby there must be clear evidence that people in the 6 Counties, the number of which must be at or close to a majority would have a wish or want for reunification via a border poll. Yet this in itself may be hard to prove as opinion polls and surveys on the subject have varied significantly from year to year with results depending upon the methodologies of the surveys and on the entities who control them. In this regard there is a case for more objective criteria to be implemented along with a third party to provide independent surveys that can be in no way biased or tainted [1]. From this it is clear that the underlying mechanics of any referendum on Irish unity are strongly biased towards the interests of Britain in Ireland, and this is something that must be addressed to ensure fairness and due process, and in effect the very democratic process that is so required.
Finally, in the event of a successful poll on Irish reunification the intransigence of some elements of Unionism and Loyalism will have to be dealt with. Such elements will put up significant resistance and barriers with violence and terrorism being used in all likelihood. To eradicate this problem such undemocratic elements will need to be put down by the new policing and legal framework alluded to previously, or failing that through other mechanisms which may or may not result in a civil war type scenario.
In conclusion it is evident that the successful implementation of Irish reunification via a border poll in it’s current format will be a Herculean task. Moreover it is absolutely fundamental that any referendum and reunification be subject to a democratic process, yet in my view to truly achieve this the criteria required for the British Secretary of State to call for a border poll must be revised to set clear parameters to ensure the grounds for such a referendum are certain. Finally, whatever the circumstances or conditions it is clear that in today's political climate it is far more efficacious to live for Ireland than to die for it.
References
[1] Criteria for calling a border poll in Northern Ireland. Submission to the Constitution Unit Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland. Professor Jon Tonge, Department of Politics, University of Liverpool.
⏩ Gowain McKenna is a Belfast born engineer and musician. He has an M.Phil, MS.c and B.Eng in Aerospace Engineering, but has somehow found himself working in the marine industry in Co. Donegal Ireland, the place from which he now calls home. Visit his website.
"Finally, in the event of a successful poll on Irish reunification the intransigence of some elements of Unionism and Loyalism will have to be dealt with. Such elements will put up significant resistance and barriers with violence and terrorism being used in all likelihood. To eradicate this problem such undemocratic elements will need to be put down by the new policing and legal framework alluded to previously, or failing that through other mechanisms which may or may not result in a civil war type scenario."
ReplyDeleteUsing words like 'eradicate' and a 'problem' ( elements in Unionism and Loyalism) will certainly smoothing that process (!)
Not that a border poll will ever be called in the next 50 years. Far too valuable a piece of real estate in the North Atlantic when the Arctic opens up for exploitation. The UK won't be blind to this.
Steve touché on the comment, but it is true that in the event of a successful democratic border poll any outrages against it will need to dealt with and eradicated, as any new state worth her weight in salt would do. A new 32 county Ireland will be a very delicate flower for many years following inception.
ReplyDeleteYou may be correct for in its current form I wouldn’t be surprised if a poll wasn’t called for in 50 years. This is precisely the problem. I also concur with your description of the 6 counties as being mere ‘real estate’ being used for means of ‘exploitation’. Again this is precisely the issue at hand, and surely thinking Irish Unionists might be better off being in control of their own affairs while living and participating in a New Ireland inclusive for all. Evidently, all the political gymnastics in the world cannot drain the Irish Sea.
But what difference on a day to day basis will this 'New (agreed?) Ireland' be to todays? What does a UI +1 day look like? + 6months/years/decades?
DeleteIt seems almost mythical at this point. One thing I did notice when I was back recently is the people across the Island have the same concerns, ie; Housing, the Welfare State, jobs and illegal immigration- and I sure as shit have noticed the uptick in Irish accents in Australia-so this point isn't lost on the young.
How would a UI address all those?
Well this is it and it is hard to say exactly what it would look like. But it should be based upon Irish sovereignty and a nation in complete control of her own affairs without interference from Britain. It should align as much as possible with the social values inherent to the proclamation, a place of integrity and equality for all while still protecting Irish culture, music and language. Moreover, far reaching social reforms are required and a national health service across the island is a must. It should be a place where education will foster and encourage, where integrated education of Catholics and Protestants is the norm and the church continues to play a limited role in government.
ReplyDeleteThere will be compromises required and I am even open to the idea of a new national flag. I believe the Éire Nua policy authored by Ó Bradaigh and Ó Conaill might provide the biggest clue as to how it should be run, albeit with modifications.
In any event, I am aware this is all just theory and talk and fear that bridging the gap between idealism and reality is a leap too far.
In short, although a monumental task and perhaps bordering on the ’mythical’, I do believe whole heartedly that a United Ireland of said description is indeed possible. But it must be done by the will of the people on the whole island of Ireland.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to what it should look like, Billy Bragg has a song called ‘Everywhere’, in which he asks, ‘What comes first the country or the man’?
Well in a New Ireland, the needs and wants of the man (Protestant and Catholic and others) must take precedence before the needs of the nation if it were ever to work.
I think it will work the way the GFA envisaged it. So slow and so calibrated it will be virtually unnoticeable.
DeleteHa Slow boat to China! I would like to think there could be a fast track to it. Lately SF seem to think a border poll and vote is doable within 5 years. But I doubt that’s realistic. In my head what is required is a leader or figure head of the PUL community to come out and endorse a border poll - so as to settle the matter once for all. Then the border poll option can be tested in a shorter period and if unsuccessful other paths to unity can be discussed.
ReplyDeleteSinn Féin are promoting the idea of a united Ireland largely as a strategic move to attract votes, aiming to offset criticism of their open borders policy. Rather than a formal border poll, what’s unfolding is a gradual economic integration—an incremental approach where departments from both sides collaborate on joint initiatives. This quiet convergence has been underway for years, driven less by ideology and more by the demands of the global economy.
ReplyDeleteEnda - I don't think any of the big parties have an open borders policy. There is no free fall immigration. Other than the fringe most know open borders don't work for national governments: how can a government plan if it does not know what the needs of the society it governs will be in two or five years time. Makes the idea of the periodic census redundant. The needs of the global economy tend towards open borders moreso than nation states.
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