In what would be the biggest upset in the liberal democratic hemisphere since the first and then second elections of Donald Trump as President of the United States; the Reform UK party led by its mercurial leader Nigel Power could sweep to power in the United Kingdom with an absolute majority in the next scheduled general election in 2029. Extrapolations from Reform’s triumphs at the Runcorn parliamentary by-election and local government polls in May predict this outcome; given the right psephological circumstances the informal gaming of the First Past The Post electoral system by voters at key constituency battlegrounds which emasculated the Conservative Party and which delivered the largest seat majority for the Labour Party of any party since 1832 could conceivably turn the worm in a radical right wing direction towards Reform.
In what throughout Great Britain is now effectively a five-party system (excluding the Scottish and Welsh nationalists and, of course, the anomalous Northern Irish party formation), Reform’s 30% plus constant opinion poll ratings lay out a clear pathway to power. The most recent IPSOS poll puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Tories a distant third on 15%. Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a General Election held now with every constituency behaving the same way, an apocalyptic scenario emerges in which Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30; Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 from last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.[1] While this doomsday situation may not come to pass so starkly, such reading of the runes do suggest terminal decline for the Conservatives; a Labour Party in Government struggling to find its identity and purpose and very fertile terrain for disruptors such as Reform.
Reform is here to stay. Sir Keir Starmer recognises this reality as he now treats them as the Real Opposition to his Government and distinguished members of the commentariat as such as Andrew Marr now envisage Farage in 10 Downing Street and is tracing out his party’s path to power.[2] Farage is the British embodiment of the Three P-virus that has infected and spread throughout the liberal democratic world – Populism, Polarisation and Post-Truth. The United States totally succumbed to the disease when Donald Trump won not just the Presidency in November 2024 but all the levers of power in the US thereby neutralising the cordon sanitaires of the separation of powers between executive, legislature and judiciary and facilitating the steady march of militarised authoritarianism of which the persecution of undocumented migrants stands as arguably the stand out, performative exemplar of cruelty. Within the European Union bloc, liberal democracy as we know it is effectively dead in Hungary; the gates have been breached in Italy where far rightist Georgi Meloni heads a coalition government and the Netherlands, where before his petulant resignation, the anti-Islam and antiimmigrant hatemonger Geert Wilders also led a coalition administration. In Europe’s two powerhouses, National Rally and the AfD, have so far failed to breach the electoral barriers to power in France and Germany respectively although National Rally has been the single largest opposition party in the French National Assembly since 2022. Hindu nationalist, anti-democratic supremacism in India and Jewish populist, anti-democratic extremism in Israel continue to play out with disastrous effects especially in the mass bloodletting in Gaza. On a more positive note, in Brazil, the Latin American Trump Jair Bolisanario is facing the judicial reckoning that his role model should have faced for attempting to thwart the will of the electorate who had democratically evicted him from power.
So is the oldest democracy in the world, the seat of the Mother of Parliaments with its venerable but unwritten constitution; its famed conventions and institutional resistance to the politics of the rabble rousing about to fall to its own barbarians at the gate? One had better believe that such a moment may indeed be upon us; being an island country no more inoculates it from the dangers of radical, populist, polarising insurgency than it does from the effects of climate change. To appreciate the threats some of the backstory of Nigel Farage and the sentiments he taps into have to be told.
So how is it that a former commodities dealer in the City of London with a private education and who has lived all his life in the wealthy stockbroker belt of the South East of England has become, in the words of Andy Haldane, the former Chief Economist to the Bank of England “as close to what the country has to a tribune for the working classes” and why is there is no politician ‘”that comes even remotely close to speaking to, and for, blue-collar working class Britain”.[3] How does Farage seemingly hit the spot with working people in ways that current Labour Cabinet ministers with council housing, single parent and benefit recipient backgrounds like Angela Rayner, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and Steve Reeds seemingly cannot?[4]. The answers partially lie in Farage’s slick ‘man of the people’, anti-establishment insurgent communicative persona; the alarming failure of the incumbent Labour to fashion any sort of coherent narrative as yet; and the concatenation of falling living standards; economic stagnation; the steady long term decline of trust in democratic institutions; the growing primacy of identity struggles over those of working class solidarity and a transformed communications landscape in which consumers receive their news and current affairs information in byte sized chunks from partisan and algorithm derived social media sources. All these factors risk creating the post-truth petrie dish around, for example, vaccine, climate change and ‘globalist elite’ disinformation in Britain that has incubated Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and their Triple P proteges and in which the malignant aspects of Farage’s character and career are simply ignored by a public mesmerised by his charisma.
Nigel Farage was first elected to the European Parliament in 1999 with the first of his political enterprises, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and made seven unsuccessful attempts to win a Westminster seat before winning the Clacton-on-Sea constituency in the 2024 general election with his latest start-up Reform UK. For much of his political career, his was a one-trick pony – UK withdrawal from the European Union. Formed by the economist Alan Sked in 1993 UKIP’s initial mission was simply the repatriation to the UK of economic and fiscal powers to enable traditional left-wing policies around nationalisation of industry. Since the UK voted to stay in what was then the European Economic Community (EEC) or ‘Common Market’ in a referendum in June 1975 a consensus had developed within the political and opinion making classes that Britain’s future lay in Europe. By and large, a formerly largely Eurosceptic Labour and Trade Union movement had also come round to this position by the late 1980s. Within the Conservative Party however opposition began to develop to closer political integration within the European body which was now known as the EU; an opposition which was increasingly being vocalised by the then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (who had assented to the Single European Act in 1986). The 1990s saw the development of a small but growing backbench Tory Eurosceptic lobby (the ‘bastards’ as Thatcher’s successor John Major not so privately called them) which harried the front bench over the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty signed in 1992 and from which Major negotiated a UK opt out from the single currency and the Social Chapter. On the fringes of politics, the Referendum Party was set up by the prominent millionaire Sir James Goldsmith to campaign for another plebiscite to leave the EU. The seeds had been sown for the long march towards Brexit and the related self-immolation of the Conservative Party.
Enter stage right Nigel Farage. After the death of Goldsmith and the winding up of his party, UKIP was the only anti-EU show in town. In the same manner in which he was to deal with future colleagues and rivals, he muscled Alan Sked aside and became party leader. In 2004, an opportunity arose for Farage to stamp his particular imprint on the anti-EU case when ten new countries joined the EU, eight of which were post-communist states, the so-called European A8 (accession eight). Tony Blair’s New Labour government - unlike all other EU members except Ireland and Sweden- choose not to impose any “transitional controls” restricting freedom of moment from the A8. For Farage, this was the moment to reopen the debate on immigration which he claimed had been shut down since Enoch Powell’s infamous “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968. Farage distances himself from direct comparisons with Powell admitting that “... the words he used, the analogy he chose, destroyed the debate on immigration for a quarter ... made it impossible even to talk about it.”[5]
Not anymore if that was ever the case. As a result of the sudden influx of Eastern European immigrants because of freedom of movement; immigration steadily became part of the national conversation and steadily climbed up the political agenda. Tory election posters proclaiming “It is not racist to talk about immigration controls” and asking “Are you thinking what we are thinking” aimed to create a new ‘common sense’ on immigration; it was left to Farage to blow the dog whistles around ‘never hearing English spoken in London Underground carriages’ or complaining of being delayed on the M4 due ‘to the amount of foreign registered cars on the motorway. As more and more Eastern European immigrants came into the UK and as the Europe was convulsed by the millions of migrants arriving on its shores in the refugee crisis of the mid 2010s, the in/out referendum called in 2016 by a PM David Cameron desperate to shoot the UKIP fox that now was hoovering up millions of votes and to unite a Tory Party split down the middle by Europe became entwined with immigration in the most toxic manner. Farage’s Breaking Point poster depicting the continent of Europe being besieged by columns of countless brown faces escaping the Middle East represented perhaps the nadir of that most divisive campaign. It was because of Farage’s tendency to push the envelope on matters pertaining to racial and cultural divisiveness that his Leave.EU vehicle lost out to Vote Leave in the contest to be the designated Leave campaign. But there can be no doubt that effective though Vote Leave’s strapline of Take Back Control was in securing the Out victory in the referendum, Farage’s quasi-demagoguery over the spectre of the loss of British (or more accurately English) identity provided much of the emotional ballast for the Brexit outcome.
As the British political system went into meltdown over the next three years over how to negotiate and implement the means of UK withdrawal from the EU, Nigel Farage having dispensed with UKIP having, in his words, secured “Independence Day” on 24 June 2016; then came out of his first phase of voluntary retirement to form the Brexit Party in 2019 to campaign against any backsliding from giving effect to the Leave vote at a time of growing Remain clamour for a second referendum in which the options would voting for whatever withdrawal deal Parliament came up with or Remain and the desperation to avoid a no-deal exit. Formed as a private company with him as sole director (the same model used by the pro-Corbyn left-wing campaign group Momentum and the short-lived Change UK party),the Brexit Party topped the poll with 30% of votes cast in the UK’s last election to the European Parliament and winning 29 of the 80 seats available. Its decision not to stand candidates in Tory held seats in the General Election held later that year, if not the decisive factor, helped to pave the way for Boris Johnston’s thumping eighty seat majority and for the UK’s formal withdrawal from the EU on 31st January 2020.
Having achieved his life’s work of enabling the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Farage then went onto convert the Brexit Party into Reform UK which, as standard fare for right wing populist parties elsewhere, campaigned against Covid lockdowns; immigration and Net Zero. While promising again to step back from front-line politics, Farage took 60% of the controlling stake in Reform UK and, once again, surrendered to the elixir of power and publicity by pushing aside its leader Richard Tice in the middle of the 2024 General Election and assuming the reins himself. Reform won five Westminster seats, including Farage himself in Clacton (and as importantly came second in a staggering 98 seats of which 89 are held by Labour and in this year’s local authority elections, won a slew of County Councils, predominantly from the Tories; two newly created Mayoralties and the parliamentary by election of Runcorn by six votes. Their quintet of MPs has been reduced to a triplet with the resignations of Rupert Lowe over staff bullying allegation and his oppositions to the personality cult around Farage and James McMurdock over alleged irregularities over receipt of Covid funds for businesses that he ran (he has also a conviction for domestic assault).
The criticisms, both political and personal, that can be levelled at Farage and at the various bands of “mad, swivel-eyed loons” of David Cameron caricature that he has led are legion and largely well founded. They range from his neglect of his constituency duties and absence from important Commons votes while attending to his array of media and consultancy jobs; his part in encouraging the conspiracy theories and two tier policing narratives surrounding the race riots that broke out last summer after the Stockport stabbings; his casual use of Alt-Right and antisemitic tropes around “globalism” and racially charged dog whistles, his avoidance of scrutiny around policies and personal probity; his thin skinned manner and his ruthless, self-serving style of leadership; his affinity with Donald Trump and admiration for Vladimir Putin. These biographical details and his various political manoeuvrings will be subjects of a future article. But at this juncture they do not enable an understanding of his possible path to power and the conditions that that are so propitious for it.
For yes, Farage may spout politics at the level of bullshit as he did when on a visit to South Wales two months ago where he made the case for reopening Port Talbot steelworks. Sure, he admitted that “it might be easier to build a new one” while acknowledging it would cost billions of pounds to do so. Extending his fantasy visions of reindustrialisation by suggesting the reopening of the Welsh coalmines, he mused that “If you offer people well-paying jobs ... many will take them, even though you have to accept that mining is dangerous.” Never mind the climate crisis caused by the burning of centuries of fossil fuels; ignore the lack of an available workforce (there are likely no Welsh miners under the age of 60; remain blissfully unaware of the topological history of mining in the creation of slag heaps and land slips which birthed the Aberfan disaster of 1966 and the memories of generation lost to colliery disasters. No what mattered is the spectacle; the performance; telling of a tale of a glorious past; the narrative of a romanticised yesteryear told to an audience in the eternal present of anaemic growth and productivity, austerity, stagnant wages, loss of hope and fear of the future – the unchanging socio-economic conditions that led to the rise of UKIP and Brexit (Wales and especially its former mining redoubts voted Leave)[6].
But Farage gets to perform such gigs up and down left-behind Britain. Since his entry into politics almost three decades ago, trust in his profession has almost vaporised. But none of the unforgiving rules of British politics appear to apply to him. As already pointed out, his Commons appearances are infrequent, his extracurricular activities prolific, his party’s internal culture chaotic. In a country that supposedly is crying for less rancour in politics and for its politicians to be humbler and apologetic, Farage’s public manner exudes brazen self-confidence and self-satisfaction; lack of humility and total absence of repentance.[7]
Few Labour or Tory policies feel designed without actual or potential Reform UK voters in mind. Its current pole position in the polls indicates that winning power is a possibility. Leading figures in Reform such as its Chair Zia Yusuf, now back in post after a 48 hour period of resignation, over the curveball that its newest MP, Sarah Pochin threw at Prime Ministers Questions when she asked if the burka would be banned (Reform has no policy on the matter), and Richard Tice are formulating policies and fiscal issues deliverable in government. KCs have been brought in by Reform to draft legislation, including a Great Repeal Bill, part of the preparation for mass deportation and an effective blockade of the English Channel.[8]
As relative new kids on the block in the Commons, Farage and Reform can act as the opposition in the amorphous and potent rather than narrowly parliamentary sense: as a repository for the hopes and fantasies of a wide range of voters that can be rescued – “reformed” – by a radically different government.[9]
Strangely and frustratingly, there appears to be little prospect of Farage suffering any sort of consequences for the calamitous effects of his one concrete achievement – Brexit. Recent research by the University of Warwick has found that post-Brexit costs have risen most in in areas that: a) voted Leave in 2016; b) have large manufacturing sectors; and c) have high numbers of low-skilled workers. The North East of England, Scotland, the English Midlands, coastal towns, and old industrial centres have experienced a collapse in manufacturing exports which are now 15% lower thanks to Brexit. These Brexit voting areas have also lost at least 8% in GDP despite being poorer than the rest of the country. Analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank shows: “The economic decline is most pronounced in England and Scotland respectively with GDP reductions of -7 percentage points and -8.7 percentage points, respectively. While the West Midlands and even London have seen declines, the report “coastal districts (like Clacton) and cities have been hit hardest.” On top of all that, the sectors most damaged by erratic immigration controls - regional universities, social care, the NHS, construction, and agriculture – are often the largest employers in struggling regions. And yet, researchers have identified a “doom loop” in which Brexit voters who suffer most from Brexit are the most likely to vote for the far right.[10]
Proponents of rational choice theory and devotees of class consciousness may struggle to understand such seeming counter-intuitive electoral behaviour. How can individuals and communities buffeted by nearly two generations of cuts, deindustrialisation and its associated mass unemployment, deskilling, insecure precariat type jobs and low wages be seduced into voting again for the snake – oil salesman who has so blatantly pulled the wool over their eyes. The answer probably lies in lack of hope and collective demoralisation and corrosive cynicism towards a political system and class that they feel does not serve or represent them. Yes, the Brexiteer mantra that foreigners – Brussels bureaucrats, Polish plumbers, asylum seekers – were to blame was a lie in 2016 and is a lie now. But it remains persuasive to those with nothing else to believe in.[11] And don’t all ethno-nationalist demagogues know that?
So, will General Election 2029 (or sooner) prove to be Brexit 2.0 just as the US Presidential Election proved to be the dawning of Trump 2.0? Will that be the moment the memories and lessons of the political convulsions which seized Britain in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit vote and the central role of Nigel Farage will be forgotten about with the electoral victory of his party and him installed in 10 Downing Street. Just as the chaos of the first Trump administration and the events of 6th January 2021 did not figure in the considerations of the electorate who granted Trump untrammelled power in Presidential Election 2024. The portents look ominous but it is to be hoped that the glare of scrutiny on the performance of Reform controlled councils; how its national policies cohere; Farage’s style of party management and the vagaries of international affairs, particularly concerning further Russian aggrandisement which would put the spotlight on Farage’s not so distant admiration for the leadership skills of Vladimir Putin. That’s if Britain has not entered the post-truth era by then.
References
[1] Serena Barker-Singh, Reform UK would win a majority if election held tomorrow, poll suggests Sky News 25 June 2025
[2] Andrew Marr Farage will likely be our next prime minister – and his party is preparing for power The New Statesman. 4-10 July 2025
[3] Andrew Marr Far-right have provided light relief, but Schadenfreude is not a political strategy. New Statesman 13-19 June 2025 pp.10-11.
[4] Ibid, p.11
[5] Jason Cowley Nigel Farage is an extraordinarily protean politician – and is closer than ever to power The New Statesman. 9-15 May 2025
[6] John Harris Britain is stuck and it’s Farage’s toxic vision that’s on repeat Opinion. The Guardian 16th June 2025 p.3
[7] Andy Beckett Why does Nigel Farage get to play politics on easy mode. The Guardian Journal 13th June 2025 pp.1-2
[8] Andrew Marr Farage will likely be our next prime minister – and his party is preparing for power. The New Statesman. 4-10 July 2025 pp.10-11
[9] Beckett, p.2
[10] Jonty Bloom Brexit’s doom loop The New World Issue 440 19th June 2025 p.26
[11] Ibid
Reform is here to stay. Sir Keir Starmer recognises this reality as he now treats them as the Real Opposition to his Government and distinguished members of the commentariat as such as Andrew Marr now envisage Farage in 10 Downing Street and is tracing out his party’s path to power.[2] Farage is the British embodiment of the Three P-virus that has infected and spread throughout the liberal democratic world – Populism, Polarisation and Post-Truth. The United States totally succumbed to the disease when Donald Trump won not just the Presidency in November 2024 but all the levers of power in the US thereby neutralising the cordon sanitaires of the separation of powers between executive, legislature and judiciary and facilitating the steady march of militarised authoritarianism of which the persecution of undocumented migrants stands as arguably the stand out, performative exemplar of cruelty. Within the European Union bloc, liberal democracy as we know it is effectively dead in Hungary; the gates have been breached in Italy where far rightist Georgi Meloni heads a coalition government and the Netherlands, where before his petulant resignation, the anti-Islam and antiimmigrant hatemonger Geert Wilders also led a coalition administration. In Europe’s two powerhouses, National Rally and the AfD, have so far failed to breach the electoral barriers to power in France and Germany respectively although National Rally has been the single largest opposition party in the French National Assembly since 2022. Hindu nationalist, anti-democratic supremacism in India and Jewish populist, anti-democratic extremism in Israel continue to play out with disastrous effects especially in the mass bloodletting in Gaza. On a more positive note, in Brazil, the Latin American Trump Jair Bolisanario is facing the judicial reckoning that his role model should have faced for attempting to thwart the will of the electorate who had democratically evicted him from power.
So is the oldest democracy in the world, the seat of the Mother of Parliaments with its venerable but unwritten constitution; its famed conventions and institutional resistance to the politics of the rabble rousing about to fall to its own barbarians at the gate? One had better believe that such a moment may indeed be upon us; being an island country no more inoculates it from the dangers of radical, populist, polarising insurgency than it does from the effects of climate change. To appreciate the threats some of the backstory of Nigel Farage and the sentiments he taps into have to be told.
So how is it that a former commodities dealer in the City of London with a private education and who has lived all his life in the wealthy stockbroker belt of the South East of England has become, in the words of Andy Haldane, the former Chief Economist to the Bank of England “as close to what the country has to a tribune for the working classes” and why is there is no politician ‘”that comes even remotely close to speaking to, and for, blue-collar working class Britain”.[3] How does Farage seemingly hit the spot with working people in ways that current Labour Cabinet ministers with council housing, single parent and benefit recipient backgrounds like Angela Rayner, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and Steve Reeds seemingly cannot?[4]. The answers partially lie in Farage’s slick ‘man of the people’, anti-establishment insurgent communicative persona; the alarming failure of the incumbent Labour to fashion any sort of coherent narrative as yet; and the concatenation of falling living standards; economic stagnation; the steady long term decline of trust in democratic institutions; the growing primacy of identity struggles over those of working class solidarity and a transformed communications landscape in which consumers receive their news and current affairs information in byte sized chunks from partisan and algorithm derived social media sources. All these factors risk creating the post-truth petrie dish around, for example, vaccine, climate change and ‘globalist elite’ disinformation in Britain that has incubated Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and their Triple P proteges and in which the malignant aspects of Farage’s character and career are simply ignored by a public mesmerised by his charisma.
Nigel Farage was first elected to the European Parliament in 1999 with the first of his political enterprises, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and made seven unsuccessful attempts to win a Westminster seat before winning the Clacton-on-Sea constituency in the 2024 general election with his latest start-up Reform UK. For much of his political career, his was a one-trick pony – UK withdrawal from the European Union. Formed by the economist Alan Sked in 1993 UKIP’s initial mission was simply the repatriation to the UK of economic and fiscal powers to enable traditional left-wing policies around nationalisation of industry. Since the UK voted to stay in what was then the European Economic Community (EEC) or ‘Common Market’ in a referendum in June 1975 a consensus had developed within the political and opinion making classes that Britain’s future lay in Europe. By and large, a formerly largely Eurosceptic Labour and Trade Union movement had also come round to this position by the late 1980s. Within the Conservative Party however opposition began to develop to closer political integration within the European body which was now known as the EU; an opposition which was increasingly being vocalised by the then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (who had assented to the Single European Act in 1986). The 1990s saw the development of a small but growing backbench Tory Eurosceptic lobby (the ‘bastards’ as Thatcher’s successor John Major not so privately called them) which harried the front bench over the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty signed in 1992 and from which Major negotiated a UK opt out from the single currency and the Social Chapter. On the fringes of politics, the Referendum Party was set up by the prominent millionaire Sir James Goldsmith to campaign for another plebiscite to leave the EU. The seeds had been sown for the long march towards Brexit and the related self-immolation of the Conservative Party.
Enter stage right Nigel Farage. After the death of Goldsmith and the winding up of his party, UKIP was the only anti-EU show in town. In the same manner in which he was to deal with future colleagues and rivals, he muscled Alan Sked aside and became party leader. In 2004, an opportunity arose for Farage to stamp his particular imprint on the anti-EU case when ten new countries joined the EU, eight of which were post-communist states, the so-called European A8 (accession eight). Tony Blair’s New Labour government - unlike all other EU members except Ireland and Sweden- choose not to impose any “transitional controls” restricting freedom of moment from the A8. For Farage, this was the moment to reopen the debate on immigration which he claimed had been shut down since Enoch Powell’s infamous “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968. Farage distances himself from direct comparisons with Powell admitting that “... the words he used, the analogy he chose, destroyed the debate on immigration for a quarter ... made it impossible even to talk about it.”[5]
Not anymore if that was ever the case. As a result of the sudden influx of Eastern European immigrants because of freedom of movement; immigration steadily became part of the national conversation and steadily climbed up the political agenda. Tory election posters proclaiming “It is not racist to talk about immigration controls” and asking “Are you thinking what we are thinking” aimed to create a new ‘common sense’ on immigration; it was left to Farage to blow the dog whistles around ‘never hearing English spoken in London Underground carriages’ or complaining of being delayed on the M4 due ‘to the amount of foreign registered cars on the motorway. As more and more Eastern European immigrants came into the UK and as the Europe was convulsed by the millions of migrants arriving on its shores in the refugee crisis of the mid 2010s, the in/out referendum called in 2016 by a PM David Cameron desperate to shoot the UKIP fox that now was hoovering up millions of votes and to unite a Tory Party split down the middle by Europe became entwined with immigration in the most toxic manner. Farage’s Breaking Point poster depicting the continent of Europe being besieged by columns of countless brown faces escaping the Middle East represented perhaps the nadir of that most divisive campaign. It was because of Farage’s tendency to push the envelope on matters pertaining to racial and cultural divisiveness that his Leave.EU vehicle lost out to Vote Leave in the contest to be the designated Leave campaign. But there can be no doubt that effective though Vote Leave’s strapline of Take Back Control was in securing the Out victory in the referendum, Farage’s quasi-demagoguery over the spectre of the loss of British (or more accurately English) identity provided much of the emotional ballast for the Brexit outcome.
As the British political system went into meltdown over the next three years over how to negotiate and implement the means of UK withdrawal from the EU, Nigel Farage having dispensed with UKIP having, in his words, secured “Independence Day” on 24 June 2016; then came out of his first phase of voluntary retirement to form the Brexit Party in 2019 to campaign against any backsliding from giving effect to the Leave vote at a time of growing Remain clamour for a second referendum in which the options would voting for whatever withdrawal deal Parliament came up with or Remain and the desperation to avoid a no-deal exit. Formed as a private company with him as sole director (the same model used by the pro-Corbyn left-wing campaign group Momentum and the short-lived Change UK party),the Brexit Party topped the poll with 30% of votes cast in the UK’s last election to the European Parliament and winning 29 of the 80 seats available. Its decision not to stand candidates in Tory held seats in the General Election held later that year, if not the decisive factor, helped to pave the way for Boris Johnston’s thumping eighty seat majority and for the UK’s formal withdrawal from the EU on 31st January 2020.
Having achieved his life’s work of enabling the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Farage then went onto convert the Brexit Party into Reform UK which, as standard fare for right wing populist parties elsewhere, campaigned against Covid lockdowns; immigration and Net Zero. While promising again to step back from front-line politics, Farage took 60% of the controlling stake in Reform UK and, once again, surrendered to the elixir of power and publicity by pushing aside its leader Richard Tice in the middle of the 2024 General Election and assuming the reins himself. Reform won five Westminster seats, including Farage himself in Clacton (and as importantly came second in a staggering 98 seats of which 89 are held by Labour and in this year’s local authority elections, won a slew of County Councils, predominantly from the Tories; two newly created Mayoralties and the parliamentary by election of Runcorn by six votes. Their quintet of MPs has been reduced to a triplet with the resignations of Rupert Lowe over staff bullying allegation and his oppositions to the personality cult around Farage and James McMurdock over alleged irregularities over receipt of Covid funds for businesses that he ran (he has also a conviction for domestic assault).
The criticisms, both political and personal, that can be levelled at Farage and at the various bands of “mad, swivel-eyed loons” of David Cameron caricature that he has led are legion and largely well founded. They range from his neglect of his constituency duties and absence from important Commons votes while attending to his array of media and consultancy jobs; his part in encouraging the conspiracy theories and two tier policing narratives surrounding the race riots that broke out last summer after the Stockport stabbings; his casual use of Alt-Right and antisemitic tropes around “globalism” and racially charged dog whistles, his avoidance of scrutiny around policies and personal probity; his thin skinned manner and his ruthless, self-serving style of leadership; his affinity with Donald Trump and admiration for Vladimir Putin. These biographical details and his various political manoeuvrings will be subjects of a future article. But at this juncture they do not enable an understanding of his possible path to power and the conditions that that are so propitious for it.
For yes, Farage may spout politics at the level of bullshit as he did when on a visit to South Wales two months ago where he made the case for reopening Port Talbot steelworks. Sure, he admitted that “it might be easier to build a new one” while acknowledging it would cost billions of pounds to do so. Extending his fantasy visions of reindustrialisation by suggesting the reopening of the Welsh coalmines, he mused that “If you offer people well-paying jobs ... many will take them, even though you have to accept that mining is dangerous.” Never mind the climate crisis caused by the burning of centuries of fossil fuels; ignore the lack of an available workforce (there are likely no Welsh miners under the age of 60; remain blissfully unaware of the topological history of mining in the creation of slag heaps and land slips which birthed the Aberfan disaster of 1966 and the memories of generation lost to colliery disasters. No what mattered is the spectacle; the performance; telling of a tale of a glorious past; the narrative of a romanticised yesteryear told to an audience in the eternal present of anaemic growth and productivity, austerity, stagnant wages, loss of hope and fear of the future – the unchanging socio-economic conditions that led to the rise of UKIP and Brexit (Wales and especially its former mining redoubts voted Leave)[6].
But Farage gets to perform such gigs up and down left-behind Britain. Since his entry into politics almost three decades ago, trust in his profession has almost vaporised. But none of the unforgiving rules of British politics appear to apply to him. As already pointed out, his Commons appearances are infrequent, his extracurricular activities prolific, his party’s internal culture chaotic. In a country that supposedly is crying for less rancour in politics and for its politicians to be humbler and apologetic, Farage’s public manner exudes brazen self-confidence and self-satisfaction; lack of humility and total absence of repentance.[7]
Few Labour or Tory policies feel designed without actual or potential Reform UK voters in mind. Its current pole position in the polls indicates that winning power is a possibility. Leading figures in Reform such as its Chair Zia Yusuf, now back in post after a 48 hour period of resignation, over the curveball that its newest MP, Sarah Pochin threw at Prime Ministers Questions when she asked if the burka would be banned (Reform has no policy on the matter), and Richard Tice are formulating policies and fiscal issues deliverable in government. KCs have been brought in by Reform to draft legislation, including a Great Repeal Bill, part of the preparation for mass deportation and an effective blockade of the English Channel.[8]
As relative new kids on the block in the Commons, Farage and Reform can act as the opposition in the amorphous and potent rather than narrowly parliamentary sense: as a repository for the hopes and fantasies of a wide range of voters that can be rescued – “reformed” – by a radically different government.[9]
Strangely and frustratingly, there appears to be little prospect of Farage suffering any sort of consequences for the calamitous effects of his one concrete achievement – Brexit. Recent research by the University of Warwick has found that post-Brexit costs have risen most in in areas that: a) voted Leave in 2016; b) have large manufacturing sectors; and c) have high numbers of low-skilled workers. The North East of England, Scotland, the English Midlands, coastal towns, and old industrial centres have experienced a collapse in manufacturing exports which are now 15% lower thanks to Brexit. These Brexit voting areas have also lost at least 8% in GDP despite being poorer than the rest of the country. Analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank shows: “The economic decline is most pronounced in England and Scotland respectively with GDP reductions of -7 percentage points and -8.7 percentage points, respectively. While the West Midlands and even London have seen declines, the report “coastal districts (like Clacton) and cities have been hit hardest.” On top of all that, the sectors most damaged by erratic immigration controls - regional universities, social care, the NHS, construction, and agriculture – are often the largest employers in struggling regions. And yet, researchers have identified a “doom loop” in which Brexit voters who suffer most from Brexit are the most likely to vote for the far right.[10]
Proponents of rational choice theory and devotees of class consciousness may struggle to understand such seeming counter-intuitive electoral behaviour. How can individuals and communities buffeted by nearly two generations of cuts, deindustrialisation and its associated mass unemployment, deskilling, insecure precariat type jobs and low wages be seduced into voting again for the snake – oil salesman who has so blatantly pulled the wool over their eyes. The answer probably lies in lack of hope and collective demoralisation and corrosive cynicism towards a political system and class that they feel does not serve or represent them. Yes, the Brexiteer mantra that foreigners – Brussels bureaucrats, Polish plumbers, asylum seekers – were to blame was a lie in 2016 and is a lie now. But it remains persuasive to those with nothing else to believe in.[11] And don’t all ethno-nationalist demagogues know that?
So, will General Election 2029 (or sooner) prove to be Brexit 2.0 just as the US Presidential Election proved to be the dawning of Trump 2.0? Will that be the moment the memories and lessons of the political convulsions which seized Britain in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit vote and the central role of Nigel Farage will be forgotten about with the electoral victory of his party and him installed in 10 Downing Street. Just as the chaos of the first Trump administration and the events of 6th January 2021 did not figure in the considerations of the electorate who granted Trump untrammelled power in Presidential Election 2024. The portents look ominous but it is to be hoped that the glare of scrutiny on the performance of Reform controlled councils; how its national policies cohere; Farage’s style of party management and the vagaries of international affairs, particularly concerning further Russian aggrandisement which would put the spotlight on Farage’s not so distant admiration for the leadership skills of Vladimir Putin. That’s if Britain has not entered the post-truth era by then.
References
[1] Serena Barker-Singh, Reform UK would win a majority if election held tomorrow, poll suggests Sky News 25 June 2025
[2] Andrew Marr Farage will likely be our next prime minister – and his party is preparing for power The New Statesman. 4-10 July 2025
[3] Andrew Marr Far-right have provided light relief, but Schadenfreude is not a political strategy. New Statesman 13-19 June 2025 pp.10-11.
[4] Ibid, p.11
[5] Jason Cowley Nigel Farage is an extraordinarily protean politician – and is closer than ever to power The New Statesman. 9-15 May 2025
[6] John Harris Britain is stuck and it’s Farage’s toxic vision that’s on repeat Opinion. The Guardian 16th June 2025 p.3
[7] Andy Beckett Why does Nigel Farage get to play politics on easy mode. The Guardian Journal 13th June 2025 pp.1-2
[8] Andrew Marr Farage will likely be our next prime minister – and his party is preparing for power. The New Statesman. 4-10 July 2025 pp.10-11
[9] Beckett, p.2
[10] Jonty Bloom Brexit’s doom loop The New World Issue 440 19th June 2025 p.26
[11] Ibid
⏩Barry Gilheany is a freelance writer, qualified counsellor and aspirant artist resident in Colchester where he took his PhD at the University of Essex. He is also a lifelong Leeds United supporter.
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