While there has been much talk within the pro-Union community for the need to have an ideological realignment in Unionism resulting in just two parties, the enthusiasm at the TUV event reminded me of the early months of 1970 and the emergence of a certain Protestant Unionist Party fronted by a certain ‘Free P’ cleric called Rev Ian Paisley.
The liberal element within the then Ulster Unionist Party in North Antrim seemed to take a dismissive attitude to that PUP, branding it as a one-man band under Paisley and an electoral flash in the pan. How wrong they were in 1970!
Paisley senior took the Bannside Stormont seat in the original Parliament followed by the North Antrim Westminster seat a few weeks later in the General Election, snatching what was previously an ultra-safe UUP Commons seat since the formation of the state in the 1920s.
North Antrim remained a rock solid Paisleyite stronghold until last year’s General Election when the seat fell to Allister. Is it a case of history repeating itself?
Many in the pro-Union community dismiss the TUV as a one-man band and when Allister eventually retires from active politics, the party will go the same way as former Unionist movements, such as the Vanguard Unionist Party, the Ulster Popular Unionist Party, and the United Ulster Unionist Party.
Skeptics point to the last Assembly election when the TUV amassed in the region of 66,000 first-preference votes, yet only managed one seat – Allister himself again in North Antrim.
With around two years to the next elections in Northern Ireland, the TUV has time to build on Allister’s Westminster success, changing its image from a Unionist protest party against the DUP and UUP, to a movement which could galvanise the Right-wing of Unionism.
The speculated realignment in Unionism structurally could be the liberal Unionists comprising what’s left of the Mike Nesbitt-led UUP and part of the modernising wing of the DUP to create a new movement which would be a mirror image of the old Brian Faulkner and Anne Dixon movement, the liberal Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
The Unionist centre Right and Hard Right would align with the so-called fundamentalist wing of the DUP and the TUV to form a new Right-wing movement which would be a mirror image of the old Vanguard Unionist Party, once fronted by former East Belfast MP Bill Craig. Such a party could also attract UUP Right-wingers disillusioned by any woke liberal direction in the UUP.
The new-look Right-wing combined UUP/DUP/TUV ‘New Vanguard’ party would also aim to mobilise support among the Loyal Orders, the marching band scene and especially the loyalist working class, especially those Unionists who currently don’t vote or are not even registered to vote.
In previous local government, Assembly and Westminster elections in Northern Ireland, voter apathy in traditional pro-Union constituencies has become a major challenge. This factor, coupled with Unionist infighting, has led to supposedly safe Unionist seats in areas such as North Antrim and Lagan Valley falling to Alliance.
The bad tasting political medicine which many pro-Union voters have to swallow is that there is now such historical bitterness between the UUP, DUP and TUV that the concept of a much-needed single Unionist Party is a total fantasy.
The best the pro-Union community may have to hope for is a successful ideological realignment between Unionism’s liberal and Right wings, coupled with effective voter turnout and vote transferring at the ballot box.
While the TUV might initially be targeting the DUP for recruits, the key test of whether the TUV can become a mainstream Unionist party is whether it can appeal to disaffected UUP voters and the loyalist working class.
Indeed, in spite of the perception that Northern Ireland is becoming an increasingly secular society, the Christian Churches still attract a lot of worshippers. While theologically liberal Christians may be attracted to a new-look, ecumenically focused realigned ‘moderate’ Unionist party, can the Right-wing ‘New Vanguard’ movement strike a cord politically with evangelical and fundamentalist Christians?
For decades under the leadership of Paisley senior, the fundamentalist Free Presbyterian Church (which he formed in 1951 some 20 years before he launched the DUP) was seen as the DUP at prayer.
Whilst in the early years of Paisley senior evolving his original Protestant Unionist Party into the Democratic Unionist Party, he needed to reach out to other evangelical and fundamentalist denominations, the TUV – if it becomes a central plank of ‘New Vanguard’ - must embark on a similar venture.
A TUV-inspired ‘New Vanguard’ party will require a three-fold strategy. Firstly, to convince the loyalist working class that that section of the Protestant community is not a forgotten or abandoned voter base.
Secondly, it must launch a 1960s-style mobilisation in the pro-Union community similar to how civil rights activists embarked on a huge voter registration campaign among the Afro-American community, especially in the Deep South states. Put bluntly, it must restore Unionist voter confidence in the ballot box.
Thirdly, it must equally restore voter confidence among the Christian denominations, not just in the mainstream denominations such as Methodism, the Church of Ireland, and Irish Presbyterianism, but also in the growing Pentecostal movement in Northern Ireland.
The ‘New Vanguard’ party needs to convince many evangelicals and fundamentalists that voting is not ‘off the devil’! It must fuel the view that voting in elections for pro-Union candidates is part of their Christian witness.
Ironically, one of the biggest hurdles the TUV specifically and any new-look ‘New Vanguard’ party will have to overcome is traditional family loyalty. For many families within the pro-Union community, voting UUP or DUP is not because of political principle, but because of family tradition.
There is also the social side of Unionism. Many people are quite happy to turn a blind eye politically to the ideological directions of the UUP and DUP because they meet many friends at annual gatherings of those parties.
The flag-waving at the TUV annual conference was strikingly reminiscent of the old-style flag-waving at past Paisley conferences. Now the DUP is the leading party in Unionism.
Can the TUV under a banner of ‘New Vanguard’ ever eclipse the DUP and UUP? The key question remains – who in the TUV has the political courage to pick up this tough gauntlet?
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
The first question on the lips of any Republican convention was "Is there any news on a split?". Given the array of Unionist parties perhaps the question would have been better pointed at them.
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