Unionists need to realise that Alliance is not the party of the late Sir Oliver Napier, one of the party’s first leaders, or John Alderdice, now Lord Alderdice, when Alliance was viewed as a moderate pro-Union party.
The so-called ‘Alliance Bubble’ has seen the party evolve into a 21st century version of the now defunct Irish Independence Party (IIP) from the Seventies.
The IIP was a moderate democratic nationalist party formed mainly by ex-SDLP activists who felt the latter party was too socialist than nationalist under the leadership of the late Gerry Fitt, later Lord Fitt.
When you listen to some of the utterances and stances coming from Alliance, it is very clear the nationalist wing of the party now runs the movement.
What it has managed to do is convince moderate Unionists that Alliance is worthy of their vote as a protest against Brexit or the policies of the Ulster Unionists, DUP, TUV and PUP.
But how many Unionists in plumping for Alliance realise what they were really voting for? Listening to the political statements from a number of the current crop of elected representatives in Alliance, I am left wondering if they are in the right party - some, perhaps, would be better off in either the SDLP or Sinn Fein!
Alliance has been clever in its targeting strategy by focusing on the peace process generation - voters coming onto the electoral register, especially young first time voters - for whom the IIP is merely a few initials in history books.
Ironically, one of the key front people for the IIP was a Protestant former British Army officer - John Turnley. He was a former activist with the SDLP who was in the faction which thought the party was not nationalist enough in ethos and too much of a socialist labour movement.
Fitt, in forming the SDLP, had wanted the party to fill the void left by the old Northern Ireland Labour Party. In nationalist terms, he saw the SDLP as replacing the now defunct Irish Nationalist Party, which had been the main opposition party in the original Stormont Parliament before it was prorogued in 1972.
In spite of Fitt’s strong opposition to militant republicanism, after Fitt left the SDLP, it was the decision by the SDLP in 1983 to contest Fitt’s West Belfast Westminster seat which split the vote and allowed Gerry Adams - then president of Sinn Fein - to grab the Commons seat.
In 2025, with Sinn Fein eclipsing the SDLP at council, Assembly and Westminster levels in Northern Ireland, maybe Alliance sees an opportunity to ‘go green’ and rebrand itself as a moderate nationalist party rather than the traditional perception of Alliance being a ‘soft U’ unionist party.
With Alliance looking like a mirror image of the old IIP, obviously the ‘green wing’ of Alliance will not want to suffer the same fate as the IIP.
While not winning any Commons seats in the 1979 Westminster General Election which saw Maggie Thatcher’s Tories sweep to power in Britain, the IIP’s showing in a number of constituencies gave it a fairly credible foundation to challenge the SDLP as the main voice of moderate democratic nationalism.
However, disaster struck in June 1980 when Turnley - then an IIP Larne borough councillor - was shot dead by the UDA in the coastal village of Carnlough. By the time of his death, Turnley had been the political face of the IIP and the party was making slow but steady inroads into the SDLP vote.
But it was the republican hunger strikes of 1980 and especially 1981 which saw Sinn Fein emerge as the alternative to the SDLP. The IIP found itself electorally squeezed between the SDLP and Sinn Fein for the nationalist vote. The outcome was inevitable - by the end of the decade, the IIP was defunct.
With Sinn Fein and the Irish government pushing the debate on Irish Unity, Alliance will not want to miss out on any electoral opportunities, especially west of the River Bann in Northern Ireland where Alliance has yet to secure a major electoral foothold.
It is electorally clear that east of the Bann, Alliance has attracted voters by branding itself as the party of protest against mixed messages from Unionism.
But eventually, the political penny will drop with moderate Unionists that Alliance has really now evolved into a soft republican party - the old IIP under a new banner.
West of the Bann is where the rich electoral pickings for Alliance lie. But to do so, it cannot be seen as a ‘small U’ Unionist party as in the days of Napier and Alderdice. Alliance must play the ‘green card’ and take its full place in the pan nationalist front to attract votes from traditional Sinn Fein and SDLP voters.
Ironically, with Sinn Fein winning council seats east of the Bann in areas that were traditionally seen as Unionist strongholds, Alliance may also be tempted to push the ‘green agenda’ in those constituencies.
Current leader Naomi Long has been clear in wanting to see Alliance as ‘Other’ in terms of designation and reform at the Assembly. But could the political pussy-footing with nationalism backfire on her leadership and a DUP-style coup brew to replace her team with a more openly nationalist agenda?
Turnley and the IIP are both gone, but their legacies could live on in the new-look ‘Green Alliance’ which is steadily emerging.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
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