2024 challenged democracy and modern institutional status quo like very few years did before. Some would show you the responsible planets for it, others would refer to the inevitable and cyclical nature of extremist politics. What France brings to the table is stereotypical but always gravity-defying political spectacle.
Unseen under the Fifth Republic, the vote of no-confidence (motion de censure) in the Michel Barnier government feels like a brick thrown at a window. It is not just a reflection on Barnier himself but very specifically of President Macron, delegitimised since his anticipated dissolution of the Assembly earlier this year, but seemingly delegitimising himself. This vote was a long time in the making, but it was clearly aimed at the President. Unfortunately, the Constitution only allows for the use of this parliamentary procedure to target the Prime Minister. And so Macron remains, a much hated figure that now clearly rang the death bells of the Fifth Republic.
The Centre-right struggled to emerge from this spring’s elections. Little to sell, with a lot of pre-existing baggage from Macron’s chaotic and controversial first mandate, they only took leadership out of principle. But familiarity brings contempt, and constant flirting with the demands of an empowered far right was never going to yield stability. One thing always leads to another, and unacceptable compromises reached their apex. The reactionary challenge to an indifferent government is one that will burn more than bad lawmaking. On the day of the vote, led by Le Pen’s formerly-known-as-the-National Front RN party and drafted by whatever is La France Insoumise (far-left pre-Potemkin? Nationalist socio-anarchism? Loud noises?) unions and collectives asked parties to vote against axing the government, insisting on the need for political stability for the purposes of negotiations and planned reforms. So, what now?
Well, France has made its constitutional bed and is very likely to keep Michel Barnier. Macron has already exhausted his get-out-of-this-government dissolution free card and would now have to wait two more years to announce parliamentary elections. As of Macron himself, he is extremely unlikely to go. Nevertheless, he persisted with his (ab)use of executive powers, such as the very Gaullist 49 (3), allowing for the President to force legislation through both Chambers. Austerity politics announced with very little mitigating measures as well as constant nods to Le Pen on immigration, borders and EU foreign support was never going to be the thriving pluralistic influence Macron begged for with his dissolution gamble. The truth is, there is no turning around that ship. Macron is headed for the iceberg but pretends he can outrun it.
Le Pen herself is in a predicament. Facing several counts of corruption and embezzlement, she could face 5 years’ imprisonment if found guilty in an ongoing trial. She could also be hit with an electoral ban, meaning she would not be allowed to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Her absence would be a breath of fresh air, but it is a medium term goal. As of today, France is heading toward the inevitable end of the road crash, a test of institutional resilience I am not sure it is quite ready for.
Growth is always uncomfortable, but the country does not know government suspensions the way we do here in Northern Ireland, and it might have to find a quick solution to this perennial problem of political legitimacy: do people get the government they deserve?
➽ Sarah Kay is a human rights lawyer.
French politics is one huge mess - chaos for sure. A very fertile ground for the fascists. Even if Le Pen does go, Jordan Bardella seems to be well positioned to replace her and give considerable oomph to National Rally.
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