Cormac Moore’s Boundary Commission articles remind me of conversations with Irish Northern Aid founder Michael Flannery, a Tipperary IRA veteran who fought the Black and Tans alongside Sean Treacy and Dan Breen, then fought the Civil War against accepting less than a Republic.
Fear and foreboding – the time the boundary commission visited Ireland (December 11th) Flannery lamented how Irish officials trusted British assurances that the Boundary Commission would deliver Tyrone, Fermanagh, Derry City and South Armagh, leaving a small unionist enclave to collapse. These articles carry a historical lesson which anyone seeking Irish reunification today will ignore at their peril.
The Good Friday Agreement says it is for the people of Ireland alone to exercise their right of national self-determination “without external impediment”. The agreement however, then contains the fundamental external impediment of giving a British secretary exclusive power to deny a border poll simply by turning a blind eye towards unwelcome signs that a six county majority might vote to live in a united Ireland.
Others might see nationalist advances in recent years, with signs of greater demographic shifts to come. The north no longer features a Unionist first minister at Stormont or Unionist majority of MPs. Yet British officials see no changing demographics. In Keir Starmer’s view, a vote on Irish reunification “is not even on the horizon.” When it comes to making the Irish wait for justice, British horizons can be never-ending.
British officials claim to be monitoring key statistical data which show we are nowhere close to meeting benchmarks for a referendum. Then they refuse to say what benchmarks nationalists must meet.
The British demand reconciliation while blocking chances of reconciliation. No Unionist political leader will risk being ‘Lundied’ or ‘Trimbled’ for discussing his constituents’ prospects in a united Ireland, while crown officials say there is no prospect of Britain allowing a border poll on the horizon.
There is an old maxim about those failing to learn the lessons of history being condemned to repeat them. Moore’s articles illustrate how Irish officials waited for the Boundary Commission to work as promised, and bequeathed us a century of partition.
To win a border poll, Irish leaders must first get Britain to hold a border poll. Planning should begin with planning a strategy to insure Britain announces benchmarks for a referendum, then grants a vote when those benchmarks are reached. The Boundary Commission history must not be repeated.
The Good Friday Agreement says it is for the people of Ireland alone to exercise their right of national self-determination “without external impediment”. The agreement however, then contains the fundamental external impediment of giving a British secretary exclusive power to deny a border poll simply by turning a blind eye towards unwelcome signs that a six county majority might vote to live in a united Ireland.
Others might see nationalist advances in recent years, with signs of greater demographic shifts to come. The north no longer features a Unionist first minister at Stormont or Unionist majority of MPs. Yet British officials see no changing demographics. In Keir Starmer’s view, a vote on Irish reunification “is not even on the horizon.” When it comes to making the Irish wait for justice, British horizons can be never-ending.
British officials claim to be monitoring key statistical data which show we are nowhere close to meeting benchmarks for a referendum. Then they refuse to say what benchmarks nationalists must meet.
The British demand reconciliation while blocking chances of reconciliation. No Unionist political leader will risk being ‘Lundied’ or ‘Trimbled’ for discussing his constituents’ prospects in a united Ireland, while crown officials say there is no prospect of Britain allowing a border poll on the horizon.
There is an old maxim about those failing to learn the lessons of history being condemned to repeat them. Moore’s articles illustrate how Irish officials waited for the Boundary Commission to work as promised, and bequeathed us a century of partition.
To win a border poll, Irish leaders must first get Britain to hold a border poll. Planning should begin with planning a strategy to insure Britain announces benchmarks for a referendum, then grants a vote when those benchmarks are reached. The Boundary Commission history must not be repeated.
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| Martin Galvin is long time Irish American activist. |
1)The benchmark for a border poll was enshrined in the GFA. It is not the fault of perfidious Albion, that those who negotiated the GFA, St Andrews etc etc ad-nauseum did not unpick/understand the fine print of the deals they signed. 2) A border poll will be lost if called within the next 50+ years. 3) It was NEVER about unity alone.
ReplyDeleteThe last time the Brits held a border poll Gerry Kelly and co bombed London.
DeleteAccording to the state papers Trimble asked Blair for one but was turned down.
The border poll call by SF is something to mask the failure of the IRA campaign. SF will call for it most likely hoping it will not be granted. They can then blame the Brits in the sure knowledge that if called and it likely fails, the party will once again be exposed as waffle vendors.
That it alone is now the sole means of achieving unity highlights the utter failure of the armed struggle to impact on constitutional change.
"One Art
ReplyDeleteThe art of losing isn't hard to master;
so many things seem filled with the intent
to be lost that their loss is no disaster,
Lose something every day. Accept the fluster
of lost door keys, the hour badly spent.
The art of losing isn't hard to master.
Then practice losing farther, losing faster:
places, and names, and where it was you meant
to travel. None of these will bring disaster.
I lost my mother's watch. And look! my last, or
next-to-last, of three beloved houses went.
The art of losing isn't hard to master.
I lost two cities, lovely ones. And, vaster,
some realms I owned, two rivers, a continent.
I miss them, but it wasn't a disaster.
— Even losing you (the joking voice, a gesture
I love) I shan't have lied. It's evident
the art of losing's not too hard to master
though it may look like (Write it!) a disaster.
Elizabeth Bishop [1911-1979]
Could have been written by either of the big Gerry's
Many people assume that if a border poll takes place, the the vast majority in the Republic will be in favour of unification. As things stand, this is an optimistic assumption, at best. Currently, the South is generally indifferent on the matter - in a survey before the recent election on the most importatant issues to the electorate, Irish unification did not even make the top ten.
ReplyDeleteThe other isuue will be - "what exactly will we be voting on?" At present non-one can say what form unification will take. One thing we can say is that unlike the British and Brexit, the people of the Republic will most certainly not buy a pig in a poke. Any doubts on that score can be checked by reference to the outcomes of two meaningless referendums on "woke" issues . Both were was soundly rejected by the elcctorate. As you might expect, both referendums were supported by Sinn Fein, wearing its "equality" hat, from its extensive range of policy hats, on that particular day.
A border poll can never succeed in the Republic, if, in any way, it can be interpreted as justifying the IRA campaign. Sinn Fein must continue to justify the IRA until all partipants in the conflict are long dead. Our grand-children may see a border poll, on a rational, rather than, historic or emotive basis, if the live long enough.
So...absolutely none of FF/FG , the shinners nor the unionists want a border poll despite all public declarations.
ReplyDeleteWell at least they're all united in that position!
Not quite. Everyone would like to see a united Ireland, but very few want to unite with the dysfunctional basket-case that is the North today. Change must come. The only party that can being about change are Sinn Fein. But they are locked in the past, 1916, to be precise, alternately the perennial victims of a colonial past and cynically exploiting that past for their own ends.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone imagine any of the men of 1916 suing a newspaper for libel, as Slab Murphy did, for naming him as a senior member of the
IRA in 1987?
More seriously, they do not accept that Kingsmill was the IRA equivalent of the British Army on Bloody Sunday, the slaughter at Loughall was no different to Narrow Water, that Gibraltar was no different to the dozens of unarmed off-duty UDR and RUC men and women killed by the IRA - and while Sinn Fein glories in the killing of Lord Mountbatten, many in the Republic see an old lady and two youn Irish boys killed in cold blood, in the Republic, simply for being in the company of an aged, retired British army officer.
The South recently decided, quite rightly, that Sinn Fein is unfit for government in a functioning democracy. The gerrymandered , British-funded institution that passes for an Assembly in the North is no place to learn the art of govrnment, or even opposition.
Hope for a border poll in the near future are about as realistic as Gerry Adams statement, in 2000 that there would be a united Ireland by 2016.
In my view if a referendum was held this year, the South would approve and the North would not. End result - no change.
DeleteI should have mentioned that, as in the Slab Murphy case, Sinn Fein has taken many defamation actions in recent years against individual journalists and publications. Mary Lou has 3 actions, Gerry Adams has two, while Gerry Kelly, Pears O'Doherty, Michelle O'Neill and Danny Morrisson have at least one. Most are based on comments relating to the Troubles. We are told that these Sinn Fein members are only law-abiding citizens upholding their legal rights.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the entire Sinn Fein leadership takes part in the entirely illegal ( due to Covid), pro-IRA demonstration that was the Bobby Storey funeral.
One law for the Shinners, another law for the rest of us?
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/see-you-in-court-sinn-feins-long-list-of-legal-actions-amid-concerns-of-co-ordinated-campaign-against-irish-media/a302306549.html
I agree with AM on the outcome of a border poll, if held this year. But only if the proposal on unification is put forward as being something that would be "nice to have", subject confirmation of the details at a later stage..
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes down to brass tacks, it is an open question whether the people of the Republic would be prepared to bounce the unionist community into a new all-island political entity against their will. We have all seen the results of the "tyrany of the majority" in the North and are unlikely to risk it happening again.
Also the British government is unlikely to approve a meaningful poll on unification if there is any possibility of a violent Loyalist reaction , before or after the poll. The last thing the Brits need is IRA bombs in London being replace by UDA or UVF bombs.
So, one way or another, and as things stand, it is going to be a long haul to unification,
That sounds very anti-democratic: don't bounce the unionists into a united Ireland against their will but force nationalists to live in a divided Ireland against their will. In that scenario nationalists really are second class citizens.
DeleteThe IRA tried for 30 years to bounce unionists by violence into a united Ireland and we have seen the consequences - a united Ireland is further away than ever. There is enormous goodwill in the Republic for a united Ireland but there must be significant unionist buy-in to the proposal. Otherwise we are back to 1972, with the UDA and UVF replacing the IRA as the aggressor.
ReplyDeleteSinn Fein is in the driving seat. It it wants change it must come up with something to bring about that change. At present, in trying to control the narrative of the conflict, all it does is prolong the memory conflict. The memory of so many IRA bombings and killings in cold blood will last for generations, without being periodically prodded by Sinn Fein leaders.
Like it or not, the people of Republic effectively abandoned their claim for jurisdiction over the whole of the island, by a massive majority, in the GFA. Perhaps they abandoned the nationalist community in the North as wel, but that is a different discussion.
Unification can now only happen on a rational basis, which means it benefits North and South. It seems to me that the fundamental economic disparity between North and South (unexpectedly large at present, but w,e all know that will come to an end), the prospect of the North returning to full EU membership, together with a long farewell to Britain and a gradual transition to full EU rules, to take into account the special circumstances in Northern Ireland, all form the basis for discussions on unity between all the parties concerned.
The identity benefits are also important. Would it be better for unionists to be part of an economically independent, sovereign, all-island state, a full member of the community of nations , or to remain a remnant of a long-gone empire, dependant on the UK subsidies for its day-to-day running costs?
But this is all a pipedream. The violence still continues. The "Irish News" reprted more than 550 punishment beatings and shootings between 1998 and 2023. Sinn Fein continues to deny any criminality by the IRA. Fear still rules many communities - with very few exceptions, victims and criminals will only speak anonymously. Peace walls remain in place. The lie has been successfully normalised in IRA and Sinn Fein statements. The status quo suits many politiians and criminals. Moderate politicians have been largely sidelined on both sides.
So whither Irish unification?
You are not taking into account the feelings of an important demographic Tonyol, that is the border smuggler. A UI would seriously negatively affect their livelihood, the poor wee souls. And were would the rest of society be without ribena too?
DeleteI wrote "The status quo suits many politiians and criminals." Of course, traditional cattle smuggling is as old as the border itself and might be thought of as more of a folk custom than an illegal activity - God bless the mark!
ReplyDeleteI read somewhere that the major source of revenue, by far, for the IRA was industrial scale fuel smuggling. No doubt this smuggling still goes on, but on a lesser scale and probably franchised out.
Anyway. AM. what's the crack with Conor Murphy being exiled by Sinn Fein? Money? Sex? Dissidents? As usual, anything we will be told by the Shinners will be a load of cobblers.
ReplyDeleteHaven't heard of him doing anything out of the norm. Nobody seriously will believe whatever spin SF put on it. Perhaps he is down to reinforce a possible waning of Northern influence. But I am guessing.
Delete