On Sunday 19th May Suzzanne Breen of the Belfast Telegraph on Sunday Politics ‘Northern Ireland’ was asked why the party are losing, according to polls, a few percentage points. In the 26 counties they are down from 31% to 29% and in the six counties they are still the highest supported party but again are down a couple of percentage points. Suzzanne suggested; “Sinn Fein in the north still hold a healthy position, but they have dropped percentage points”. It appears the party have dropped 2 points in the six counties and coupled with, according to the polls, they are losing some ground in the 26 counties which must be causing minor concerns. They are not down a great deal and no need to press the panic button yet but nevertheless it should be food for thought as they are losing points across Ireland as a whole.
Has some of their actions over the Palestinians in Gaza been a factor in this minor decline? Suzanne Breen made a valid point when she pointed out:
I don’t think the party leadership realise the importance of full support for the Palestinians among the republican base (if that is what their base support any longer is). The other week Sinn Fein ejected some pro-Palestinian protestors from the Europa Hotel at a party meeting. This would not bode well among its electoral base.
A fair point, as Sinn Fein councillors “failed to vote in favour of kicking out the Israeli Ambassador”, it was not clear whether this was in reference to the 6 or 26 counties. This again would not sit well within their support base.
Sinn Fein dropping points in each jurisdiction, albeit only a small number, is not good but they are still the largest party in the six counties and are riding high in the polls. In the 26 counties they are still the most popular party as they are across the island of Ireland. In the six counties they are down from 31 to 29 percentage points and remain the largest party in the Stormont Assembly. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are down to 21 percentage points quite a large drop for them. The arrest of former DUP leader, Jefrey Donaldson over ‘historical sex abuse’ claims have helped the demise of the DUP and perhaps Sinn Fein have Donaldson to thank indirectly for them retaining a huge lead over their rivals? It should be remembered at this juncture that Donaldson has been found guilty of nothing at this time, but guilty or not the damage to the DUP has been done.
The small drop in Sinn Fein support is well within the margin of error so no great concern at the moment there. Polls are notoriously unreliable as has been the case on countless occasions in the past. They are not deciding factors, just vague indicators of any party’s fortunes at a given time. The only poll which counts for these parties is of course the election itself. Despite this drop in the polls Sinn Fein still look set to become the largest party in the Dail at the next election with Mary Lou McDonald becoming the first woman Taoiseach.
Sinn Fein dropping points in each jurisdiction, albeit only a small number, is not good but they are still the largest party in the six counties and are riding high in the polls. In the 26 counties they are still the most popular party as they are across the island of Ireland. In the six counties they are down from 31 to 29 percentage points and remain the largest party in the Stormont Assembly. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are down to 21 percentage points quite a large drop for them. The arrest of former DUP leader, Jefrey Donaldson over ‘historical sex abuse’ claims have helped the demise of the DUP and perhaps Sinn Fein have Donaldson to thank indirectly for them retaining a huge lead over their rivals? It should be remembered at this juncture that Donaldson has been found guilty of nothing at this time, but guilty or not the damage to the DUP has been done.
The small drop in Sinn Fein support is well within the margin of error so no great concern at the moment there. Polls are notoriously unreliable as has been the case on countless occasions in the past. They are not deciding factors, just vague indicators of any party’s fortunes at a given time. The only poll which counts for these parties is of course the election itself. Despite this drop in the polls Sinn Fein still look set to become the largest party in the Dail at the next election with Mary Lou McDonald becoming the first woman Taoiseach.
In the ‘Legislative Assembly’ at Stormont in the north Sinn Fein look to remain the largesse party with Michelle O’Neil remaining as First Minister. I do not share Suzzanne Breen’s analysis that Sinn Fein's policy towards the Palestinians is costing them points. At the party’s last Ard Fheis Mary Lou “embraced the Palestinians while condemning Israel”. However, this did not prevent the party leadership attending the White House as guests of President Joe Biden, Israel's largest arms supplier at the time, for the Saint Patricks Day piss up! This did cause some resentment among Sinn Fein's rank and file but not mass desertions. The incident as told by Suzzanne Breen about the Europa Hotel in Belfast may also have caused some constellation but again no mass desertions.
What may be causing the drop in percentage points is the party, like all those in Dail Eireann, with the possible exception of People Before Profit, is their, Sinn Fein's, fudging policies to suit populism within the community. For example, after Mary Lou’s hostile reception at East Wall, Dublin, by residents fuelled by the far-right over international protection applicants the party who once were in the scramble to be refugee-friendly shifted ground to the right slightly. This was in an attempt to reclaim support from far-right organisations. Sinn Fein are not alone here as all Dail Parties, government and opposition alike, are shifting from embracing asylum seekers to mild hostility. They have cut the benefits these people receive from over 200 euro per week to just 38. They promised these people protection and instead have reneged an all their promises, making them live in unsanitary conditions and cutting their incomes. Hardly welcoming is it! Sinn Fein are no exception as the governing parties have shifted from their ‘open door policy’ to one of caution. The problem with what amounted to an ‘open door policy’ is that it was ill thought out if any thought at all was given to it.
Another area which may be of concern particularly among the older members of Sinn Fein and some IRA veterans could be the apology issued by Michele O’Neil over the party leadership's attendance at veteran IRA fighter, Bobby Storey’s funeral. Yes, the funeral took place under Covid conditions but, as far as I could see, all safety precautions were taken. Was there any need to issue an apology? This could have damaged some grass roots supporters faith in the party but to what, if any, extent?
The complete shambles which the present government consisting of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party, have made in general not about just asylum seekers is the main reason Sinn Fein are riding so high. Sinn Fein may be down a couple of percentage points but this often happens and is not yet a matter for concern. Like all opportunist parties in all so-called parliaments if it suited their electoral needs Sinn Fein, like the rest of the parties, would move into an all-out opposition to international protection applicants if they thought such a move would get them into government. In parliamentary politics electoral success not political principles is what counts, which makes a mockery of the whole farce.
Another area which may be of concern particularly among the older members of Sinn Fein and some IRA veterans could be the apology issued by Michele O’Neil over the party leadership's attendance at veteran IRA fighter, Bobby Storey’s funeral. Yes, the funeral took place under Covid conditions but, as far as I could see, all safety precautions were taken. Was there any need to issue an apology? This could have damaged some grass roots supporters faith in the party but to what, if any, extent?
The complete shambles which the present government consisting of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party, have made in general not about just asylum seekers is the main reason Sinn Fein are riding so high. Sinn Fein may be down a couple of percentage points but this often happens and is not yet a matter for concern. Like all opportunist parties in all so-called parliaments if it suited their electoral needs Sinn Fein, like the rest of the parties, would move into an all-out opposition to international protection applicants if they thought such a move would get them into government. In parliamentary politics electoral success not political principles is what counts, which makes a mockery of the whole farce.
The object of politics, particularly socialist politics, is to convince the people your point is the correct one, not fudge to suit changes of mood among elements among the population as Sinn Fein are doing. In Britain the Scottish Labour Leaders, Anas Sawar, once said; “I don’t care about principles, all I care about is getting elected”. That clap trap applies to Dail Eireann parties and Members of the Legislative Assembly, who are not a sovereign government, equally.
James Connolly, a man Sinn Fein somewhat ridiculously claim as one of their historical icons, once celebrated coming third in an election on a socialist ticket. He came third by sticking to the socialist message and not fudging to suit what today we call populism among the electorate. He did not become an anti-Semite just because huge swathes of the population were, he continued to fight such abominations putting anti-Semitism and sectarianism in the same evil branch. He stuck to his guns and that is what it is all about.
For years now Sinn Fein have abandoned policy after policy. What happened to the illusive “32 County Democratic Socialist Republic” once so often preached by SF? Will we get our much-needed single tiered nationalised health system? We’ll never know unless the Sinn Fein party are elected but, for fucks sake, do not hold your breath because form would suggest not. What we do know is the present gang in government will never deliver!
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| Caoimhin O’Muraile is Independent Socialist Republican and Marxist. |
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