While the public did not get any hint of his looming resignations during the recent St Patrick’s celebrations in the United States, perhaps Varadkar’s time in Washington gave him space away from Leinster House to consider his future - and the future of any cross-party coalition in the Dail capable of outgunning the Provisional IRA’s political wing, Sinn Fein, at the next Dail General Election.
If past opinion polls over several months are taken as a sounding board, Sinn Fein could be set for its best electoral achievement on the island since the 1918 Westminster General Election when it notched up the majority of the 105 Commons seats on offer when Ireland was still all under British rule.
If those opinion polls are correct, Sinn Fein could either be on course to form a majority government in Leinster House, or be the largest party in a coalition government - but with whom? In either scenario, Sinn Fein boss Mary Lou McDonald is tipped to become Taoiseach.
Such an outcome would leave Sinn Fein holding the two top political posts on the island - Taoiseach in Leinster House and First Minister at Stormont.
It’s no wonder Sinn Fein is chomping at the bit politically to ensure the partitionist parliament at Stormont delivers effective power-sharing. The Provos’ political wing needs to convince Southern voters that it is not merely an apologist for IRA terror, but a party of responsible government capable of making key financial decisions.
Sinn Fein will have a chance to see if the lipstick and ballot box strategy is working in a few months’ time when Southern Irish voters go to the polls in the European elections to decide who their MEPs in the European Parliament will be.
If Sinn Fein increases its European vote and number of MEPs, then the Stormont lipstick and ballot box strategy is working and the republican movement has been successful in airbrushing the Provos’ terror campaign out of the political debate.
This leaves the non-Sinn Fein parties and Independents with a massive political migraine - how to stop Mary Lou becoming Taoiseach?
Sinn Fein, like Varadkar, championed the Yes campaign in those two recent referenda. Southern voters delivered a decision No/No. Could this be interpreted as a socially conservative Right-wing backlash against the Dublin political establishment?
Like then British Prime Minister David Cameron in the 2016 EU referendum in the UK, Taoiseach Varadkar totally misread voters’ intentions in 2024.
Cameron was a champion of the Remain campaign. He lost and quit as PM. Cameron set the pace; Varadkar had no obvious choice. He had to quit.
It was clear that in trying to stop the Sinn Fein bandwagon, Varadkar wanted to use the two referenda to make the 26 Counties an even more liberal, secular and pluralist society than Sinn Fein could ever promise. The plan backfired considerably.
To keep Sinn Fein out of power in the last Dail general election, the two bitterly rival Dublin establishment parties - Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - had to form an historic coalition.
With that crucial Dail general election looming within a year, will Fianna Fáil try to out-green Sinn Fein in terms of a nationalist agenda, and will Fine Gael swing to the socially conservative radical Right to reverse Varadkar’s defeat in the referenda?
However, in doing so, could it put such a strain on the current FF/FG coalition that it falls apart during the election allowing Sinn Fein to electorally dander into power in Leinster House?
The Southern parliament has a long history of electing a significant crop of Independent TDs and minority parties. Ironically, they could hold the balance of power in the next Dail should the Sinn Fein bandwagon not deliver enough TDs for Mary Lou to form a majority government.
And given last November’s Dublin riot and the underlying problem of immigration in the 26 Counties, could Hard Right-wing parties or candidates make a break-through into Dail politics?
Indeed, is Sinn Fein so desperate to get into power in Leinster House that the party will climb into bed politically with anyone or any party in the Dail simply to gain that coalition government majority?
In the last Dail election, it could have been worse for the establishment parties. The only reason that Sinn Fein was not part of a coalition government was that the republican movement did not run enough candidates. Sinn Fein has learned its lesson and will not make that mistake again come the next general election.
The non-Sinn Fein candidates and parties cannot afford to wait until after the votes have been counted to see if Sinn Fein emerges as the largest party.
They have to act now. They must form an electoral pact and formally announce a political rainbow coalition of candidates and parties opposed to Sinn Fein under the banner that a Sinn Fein Dail government will see another collapse of the Celtic Tiger economy as Sinn Fein’s social housing policy will financially bankrupt the Southern economy.
At the polling stations, Southern voters will have to adopt the Northern Ireland ethos of ‘themuns’ and ‘usuns’ and vote tactically with transfers to keep Sinn Fein out.
Granted, there is a severe social housing crisis in Southern Ireland. But economically, Sinn Fein is still anchored to the outdated Far Left agenda of communist James Connolly’s Irish Socialist Republican Party.
In financial policy terms, Sinn Fein is still stuck in its foundation year of 1905. After all, it was only in 1986 that Sinn Fein eventually voted to allow its TDs to take their seats in Leinster House.
There is no doubt that under a Mary Lou premiership, the now whispering campaign for a border poll will become loud shouts. But Sinn Fein in government in Leinster House does not mean Irish Unity is a certainty.
Perhaps a five-year term of Sinn Fein’s looney Left economic policies - and especially on social housing - will be the killer financial blow to any genuine hopes for a united Ireland, leaving Southern Ireland as a third rate banana republic located geographically on the extremes of the European Union.
In this scenario, that leaves Irish Unity politically binned for at least the remainder of this century.
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| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
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