Stormont Sister Act Must Play Pitch Perfect To Outshine Chuckle Brothers!

Dr John Coulter ✍ The new Stormont Sister Act of Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill and the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly needs to seriously politically outshine the past Chuckle Brothers routine of the late Rev Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness if the Assembly is to avoid another life-threatening collapse.

The words of my headline and intro may sound like a musical critique, but simply because Stormont is back in business after yet another lengthy suspension does not mean the future of devolution is secure in Northern Ireland.

The Chuckle Brothers was an affectionate term for a short period of devolved government beginning in 2007 when firebrand fundamentalist preacher, Rev Ian Paisley, the founder of the DUP, in his role as First Minister, teamed up with the former Provisional IRA commander in Londonderry, Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein, a man responsible for giving the nod to numerous IRA atrocities, and who served as deputy First Minister.

In spite of their vastly differing ideological backgrounds, the Chuckle Brothers delivered one of the most stable periods of devolved government in Northern Ireland, not just since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, but historically since the formation of Northern Ireland in the 1920s.

Setting aside all the fancy speeches, soundbites and snuggly rhetoric from Saturday’s first restoration of the devolved institutions in two years, the blunt challenge for the Sister Act of O’Neill and Little-Pengelly is - can they politically outshine the Chuckle Brothers?

In the short-term, it will be the social communication skills, not just of these two women, but of all members of the newly formed Stormont Executive to work together as human beings which will guarantee that the Assembly remains in business.

Long-term, the Good Friday Agreement will require a radical political MOT to ensure that no one party can again use a veto to collapse power-sharing. Bluntly again, devolution in Northern Ireland is at the political Last Chance Saloon.

If the Assembly collapses again, just as when it was prorogued in 1972, that will be the end of a Stormont Parliament for at least a generation.

During the past seven years, Sinn Fein has collapsed the Assembly for three years and the DUP for two years. The question is - can this scenario be avoided? As an eternal political optimist, my answer is Yes.

For the DUP, in spite of the verbal spats on Saturday with North Antrim MLA Jim Allister, the leader of the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party, and the threat of street protests from loyalists, the Donaldson Deal - aptly entitled Safeguarding the Union - with the British Government must be seen to be working.

The pro-deal DUP faction has squeezed every pip it could out of the British Government using the Stormont boycott tactic. Whatever view is taken on whether the so-called Irish Sea border exists in reality, the final political bullet to the head to the Windsor Framework can only be delivered by the DUP from inside the Stormont Chamber.

To use a soccer analysis, the winning penalty (in this case a political coup de grace to terminate the Windsor Framework’s effects) can only be scored by the player on the pitch, not the supporter yelling from the stands.

The real worry for the DUP is that unionist grassroots anger at the party restoring Stormont could manifest itself at the next Westminster General Election this year, with anti-deal candidates costing some DUP MPs their seats in a split unionist vote.

That could be one reason why surprisingly during the Executive ministerial selection, the DUP opted for the education and communities portfolios. Both ministries give the party ample opportunities to both mix with the people on the ground and implement popular policies. Both portfolios are potential mega vote winners in the event of any forthcoming bruising election campaign.

As for Sinn Fein, why would the political wing of the republican movement want to see a so-called partitionist parliament remain stable when O’Neill has already hinted she would like to see an Irish Unity border poll within a decade?

Again bluntly simple - Sinn Fein needs to convince voters in Southern Ireland that it can be a responsible and mature party of government and not simply a loud-mouthed protest movement against the establishment parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Sinn Fein has no credible track record in government in Dublin’s Leinster House. The last time Sinn Fein had such a Stormont-style mandate on the island was in 1918 following the Westminster General Election when it clinched around 70 of the 105 Commons seats on offer when Ireland was all one under the flag of the British Empire.

But what did Sinn Fein do with that mandate? Certainly not stable governance after the signing of the Anglo-Irish Treaty in the 1920s. Sinn Fein started the bloody Irish Civil War which saw republican butcher republican in a manner which made the notorious Black and Tans seem like a respectable regiment of the British Army!

Sinn Fein has an historical credibility problem. By taking the economy and finance portfolios in Saturday’s Stormont carve-up, it hopes to convince Southern voters that Sinn Fein can become a worthwhile party of government following the next Dail general election in the republic.

Sinn Fein needs Stormont to work to this end. Before that general election, it will have the chance to test if the republican movement’s strategy is working with European elections in the republic later this year.

Fears of what a Sinn Fein government in Leinster House might unleash on Southern Ireland were abundantly clear after the past Dail general election where in spite of gains by Sinn Fein, the rival establishment parties formed an historic coalition to keep Sinn Fein out of government.

Opinion polls suggest Sinn Fein is on course either to have a majority government or form a coalition with either Fianna Fáil or Independent TDs.

In the coming weeks, how Sinn Fein Stormont ministers spend the British budget will dictate the outcome of the next Dail battle.

The real fear on both sides of the border is that Sinn Fein hands on the purse strings will economically bankrupt both the Assembly and Southern Ireland.

Is this a price the unionist community and Dublin establishment is prepared to pay to confine the republican movement’s influence to the dustbin of history?

Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter

Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online.