Sounds a far-fetched idea, but with Tory PM Sunak suffering two humiliating Westminster by-election defeats this month plus a squeaky-bum majority victory in a third, Sir Keir Starmer’s British Labour Party must be sensing victory in next year’s expected UK General Election.
But a key problem as ever for Northern Ireland socialists is that the British Labour Party still refuses to contest Westminster elections in the Province, insisting that the election-blasted SDLP is British Labour’s sister party in Ulster.
That may be fine and dandy if you are a nationalist, but what political options for the pro-Union community who regard themselves as Left-wing?
Even as far back as the late 1980s after the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in November 1985, British Labour constantly pour cold water politically over the highly-vocal Campaign for Equal Citizenship, many of whose pro-Union supporters wanted British Labour to officially organise in Northern Ireland and contest elections.
And there’s the general perception among working class Loyalists that the main Unionist parties - the DUP and Ulster Unionists - are politically disconnected from the pro-Union working class and socialist politics.
The nearest party to a pro-Union labour movement in Northern Ireland is the Progressive Unionist Party, however, it has all been but electorally obliterated in recent polls. Besides, the party’s links to loyalist death squads, such as the UVF and Red Hand Commando, hampered its appeal among the Protestant working class.
As for the DUP, it was formed in 1971 as an amalgamation of two voiceless sections of the pro-Union community at that time - the loyalist working class and fundamentalist Christians. The traditional Paisleyite wing of the party always viewed any flirtation with socialism as smacking of Communism, and even branded the PUP in Belfast as ‘the Shankill Soviet’.
The UUP was always viewed as a middle class, big house Unionist movement - often dubbed the Fur Coat and No Knickers Brigade, for its seeming distain for the working class.
The UUP did have a pressure group for pro-Union socialists called Unionist Labour, but its influence within the party which ruled Northern Ireland for half a century was minimal.
So what are the workable alternatives. Ulster socialists have run a mixed bag of candidates over the years since the original Stormont Parliament was prorogued in 1972, but without the official blessing of the British Labour Party those movements have not fared well electorally.
The Provisional IRA’s political wing, Sinn Fein, has scooped two successive election victories becoming the largest party in terms of seats in both Stormont and across Northern Ireland’s 11 super councils.
Sinn Fein’s socialism is inspired by James Connelly, the Scottish communist who formed the tiny Irish Socialist Republican Party and was one of the key organisers of the failed Easter Rising in 1916.
With polls predicting a surge in support for Sinn Fein south of the Irish border in the next Dail General Election, and if Sinn Fein does grab the reins of power in Leinster House, expect a Hard Left agenda to be implemented more akin to Connolly’s ISRP ideology than modern socialism.
That leaves only one workable alternative. Irish Labour, itself one of the oldest political movements on the geographical island of Ireland, must both organise and contest elections in Northern Ireland - and it must be ready to do so by that expected UK General Election in 2024.
In that election, expect Sinn Fein to deliver another poll battering to the moderate SDLP and if Sinn Fein returns with the largest number of Westminster MPs that will be a waste of space because Sinn Fein still refuses to take its Commons seats.
Irish Labour would not adopt such an outdated abstentionist policy and could provide the key seats which Keir Starmer needs to clinch the keys of 10 Downing Street.
If Irish Labour did contest seats in Northern Ireland, it would be then organised on an all-island basis; a fact which Sinn Fein constantly rubs into the SDLP.
With Westminster generating a new bout of general election fever based on the buzz from the three recent Commons by-elections, the concept of official UK Labour Party candidates contesting Northern Ireland constituencies has once more nudged its way to the top of the socialist agenda here.
In earlier articles, I have put forward the argument that if the Labour Party maintained that it will not put up official candidates in Northern Ireland, then the Dublin-based Irish Labour Party should live up to its pledge to contest NI seats.
Ideologically, there is a need for a formal labour party to contest Northern Ireland polls in the same way as the Conservative Party runs official candidates here. Okay, Tory candidates generally take an electoral hammering, but at least the party has the courage to face the electorate.
Strategically and tactically, is the Irish Labour Party capable of fighting elections in NI, given its disastrous past showing in the Republic’s 2016 general election when the party lost 30 Dáil seats, reducing its representation to seven?
Furthermore, what can Irish Labour gain by contesting Northern polls given its current tally of elected representatives in the South.
To save face, and rebuild, Irish Labour needs to sell itself as an all-island movement. Merely organising in Northern Ireland is not sufficient. It must contest elections. Even fringe organisations, such as the anti-abortion Aontu party, led by former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín, has only a handful of elected representatives but can still claim itself to be an all-Ireland movement given its elected representatives do politically straddle the Irish border.
At the crux of Irish Labour’s gamble is deciding where its central focus should lie. Will it focus mainly on rebuilding in the Republic; if it does not contest NI seats, is it opening the electoral door either to Aontu, or any future revitalised SDLP should the latter hold both the Foyle and South Belfast Westminsters seat from Sinn Féin?
Irish Labour, tactically, should emphasise that it would be prepared not just to take their seats at Westminster; it could join a so-called ‘rainbow coalition’ of pro-EU/Remain parties at Westminster to oust Sunak’s Tories.
If Starmer is to lead such a coalition, he may need to make significant gains in Scotland at the expense of the SNP, but will this become a reality given the financial allegations surrounding the SNP?
With potential for a Lib Dem ‘bounce’ under leader elsewhere, an Irish Labour MP in NI could prove invaluable to Starmer’s prospects of forming a Government, as well to future talks with the EU not just on the implementation of the Windsor Framework, but also on moves to rejoin the EU.
Should Irish Labour step up, a key selling point to Northern Irish voters would be that the party is not an overtly republican party like Sinn Féin or Aontu and, therefore, could be capable of attracting cross-community support.
Secondly, it’d be organised on an all-Ireland basis, unlike the SDLP which is Northern-based and has only a working relationship with Fianna Fáil in the South.
Should the party succeed, perhaps it might find itself in a prime position to challenge the Alliance Party as the main middle ground voice in Northern Ireland? More realistically, with political toes in the water in Dublin and Westminster, could Irish Labour be the surprise key to kickstarting the Stormont institutions?
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Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
Labour's voter base lies in posh parts of Dublin # Rathgar #Killiney
ReplyDeleteIt has nothing to offer the more marginalised subset of society # Lady Ivana # 2 % Poll ratings
In Drogheda they are miles ahead of the other parties in combatting the far right.
DeleteIt has long been joked of Eamon Gilmore that he only ever kept one promise and that was when he was in the Workers Party he swore to destroy the Labour Party.
Out of all their leaders I prefer Ivana
John's description of SF as 'hard left' is hilarious. Though, as always, he throws out an interesting mixture of ideas, even if some are based on a very skewed understanding of political history.
ReplyDeleteAnthony, That's interesting about labour in Drogheda.