Has Sinn Fein returned to its ‘Royalist’ roots of 1905 when its founders campaigned for dominion status for Ireland? But let’s take a major dose of political medicine - Sinn Fein’s presence at the Coronation is nothing short of a well choreographic piece of electioneering spin ahead of the 18 May local council elections in Northern Ireland.
In short, Sinn Fein politicians ‘playing curtsey’ to King Charles III is a three-pronged canvassing stunt. Having overtaken the DUP at Stormont by two seats after the last Assembly election, Sinn Fein is planning a ‘double whammy’ over the Paisley-founded party by pushing the DUP into second place again in terms of councillors elected across Northern Ireland’s 11 councils.
In 2019, the DUP emerged on top with 122 elected councillors compared to Sinn Fein’s tally of 105. But to beat the DUP on 18 May, Sinn Fein needs to eat even more into the electorally lucrative Catholic upper middle class and moderate nationalist lobby, which traditionally was the bastion of the SDLP.
Sinn Fein managed to overtake the SDLP in Stormont polls by eating into the SDLP’s traditional lower middle class Catholic vote, whilst at the same time keeping Sinn Fein’s own traditional working class republican heartlands on board - a tactic the Unionist parties would do well to adopt in terms of middle class Unionism’s links to working class Loyalism!
By making sure there is plenty of footage and photos of Sinn Fein elected representatives at the Coronation, the republican party can fuel the perception it is no longer the blunt apologist of the IRA, but is a genuinely democratic nationalist party - basically, the old Irish Independence Party of the 1970s rebranded.
In strategy terms, the long-war tactic of the Armalite in one hand and the ballot paper in the other has been replaced with the make-up bag in one hand with the ballot paper in the other. Lipstick, not Semtex, is the order of the day.
Secondly, with opinion polls showing a Sinn Fein surge in the Republic, attending such a prestigious Royal event as the Coronation will also fuel the perception among Southern-based voters that Sinn Fein can be trusted with the reins of government after the next Dail General Election, expected next year.
Again, Sinn Fein will be targeting traditional middle class voters from Fianna Fail’s election base as well as the youth vote and first-time voters for whom the IRA is merely a name in history books.
Sinn Fein needs to maintain the opinion poll momentum that it can run a country responsibly and not merely be a party of protest against the Dublin establishment of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
After all, the last time enjoyed such all-island election success was in the Westminster poll of 1918 weeks after the end of the Great War when the movement won most of the Commons seats when Ireland was entirely in the British Empire.
If Sinn Fein can sell the myth south of the Irish border that its IRA past has been well and truly politically ‘disappeared’, then the chances of party president Mary Lou McDonald becoming either Taoiseach in the Sinn Fein-led government, or Tanaiste as part of a coalition government in the Dail are rapidly increased.
Thirdly, Sinn Fein has made no secret of its desire for a border poll on Irish Unity. Whilst a Tory Government at Westminster will not grant such a demand, there is always the chance a Labour Government under boss Sir Keir Starmer would grant this republican wish.
However, the next Westminster poll may also be a close run election. Sinn Fein currently has seven MPs, but because of the outdated abstentionist policy, the party does not take its Commons seats over the oath of allegiance.
However, appearing at the coronation may be the latest stage in a carefully thought-out plan to convince the Sinn Fein membership to abandon abstentionism.
After all, this process began in the mid 1980s when the Adams/McGuinness leadership successfully persuaded the movement to drop its abstentionist policy towards TDs taking their Dail seats. In spite of a walkout by hardliners to form the breakaway Republican Sinn Fein party, mainstream Provisional Sinn Fein now has almost 40 TDs in Leinster House.
Gone, too, is the boycott of Stormont which the party adopted for the 1982-86 Assembly as well as the 1996-98 Northern Ireland Forum. Sinn Fein now not only allows its MLAs to take their Assembly seats, but when the power-sharing Executive was fully functioning also took up ministerial posts and operated the partitionist parliament in Belfast!
So with taking seats at council, Assembly, Dail and European levels, the only barrier which remains is the House of Commons. Seven Sinn Fein MPs, for example, could be in a strong bargaining position with British Labour if the latter only needed a handful of MPs to guarantee Starmer the keys to 10 Downing Street.
Put bluntly, would Sinn Fein drop abstentionism to prop up a British Labour Government at Westminster in exchange for a guaranteed border poll, especially, if like the Good Friday Agreement referenda, that border poll was all-island and not just limited to the six counties of Northern Ireland?
Would Sinn Fein then be able to call upon Biden’s billions or all 32 counties rejoining the European Union as a new nation as a way of financially bankrolling the New Ireland?
Given the opinion poll collapse for support for the Scottish National Party over the financial allegations, could British Labour win back enough seats north of the English border at the next General Election in the event of an SNP electoral collapse?
While dissident republican terrorism still remains a threat in Northern Ireland, it various political mouthpieces still remain on the fringes and are no threat to Sinn Fein politically.
Sinn Fein is deciding which is the bigger ace card - the fact that the party is organised on an all-Ireland basis unlike the SDLP, or counter the SDLP’s influence at Westminster by Sinn Fein dropping abstentionism.
Sinn Fein has a definite agenda. Why else would the republican movement’s ruling IRA Army Council give the green light to elected representatives attending a Royal showpiece.
If the former IRA commander, the late Martin McGuinness, can shake hands with the late Queen Elizabeth, Sinn Fein will milk the coronation politically in exchange for ditching the Commons abstentionism.
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Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
Zero chance of a referendum deciding the constitutionality of the 6 counties being decided by an all island vote . If it did happen there would be a civil war #Period The Brits want out because the ROI is a backdoor for illegal immigration ; divorcing from NI is the impossible bit .
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