We Unionists need to be cynical about all the ‘who-ha’ surrounding his recent Irish extravaganza.
Unionism, please dismiss the Biden bumph, Belfast sound bites and Ballina spin; see this four-day visit for what it really is - the start of Biden’s Presidential re-election campaign for 2024.
As I concluded in a recent Pensive Quill analysis.
In terms of Anglo-American relations, if American-Ireland relations are at the peak of Everest, then many of his speeches have placed Anglo-American and especially Unionist-American relations at the bottom of the Atlantic along with the Titanic.
Again, it cannot be overstated following the supposed bilateral talks in private between Biden and Tory PM Rishi Sunak that in spite of the coffee-cup smiles, it was very noticeable the absence of Sunak from Biden’s keynote speech in Belfast.
But did Sunak get his knuckles rapped in private and was told - no US/UK trade deal until he puts the Unionists in their place over their opposition to the Windsor Framework. Biden referred to that Framework as an “essential step”
Indeed, when Biden used the words ’Your future is America’s future’ - was this a massive warning that all these billions of dollars will only come if power-sharing is restored at Stormont.
Unionism will have to box clever in the coming weeks, not months, if they are to successfully milk the American cow.
Unionism may be able to ‘string out’ the protocol/framework logjam until after May’s council elections, but if there is no sign of significant progress by May 29 Spring Bank Holiday, expect Dublin and Westminster to move sharply with a solution which implements the Windsor Framework with the backing of Biden’s billions.
As for Biden’s speech in Leinster House to the joint sitting of the two houses, it was a recognition that opinion polls suggest the Provisional IRA’s political wing will be a major Southern government player after the next Dail General Election and the Irish Republic could have either a Sinn Fein Taoiseach or Tanaiste.
The strongly pro-nationalist nature of that Dail speech could see the President’s nickname of Sleepy Joe being replace by Shinner Joe.
Biden especially needs to clear up his ‘de Valera comment’ made at the end of his Dail speech. Quoting the words of his grandfather Finnegan, who was an Irish American, the President said:
Joey, I worry about you. I said - Pop, what are you worried about? He said you’re too much like the guy who led the revolution instead of the guy who was the prime minister. He said you’ve got to be less like the military guy; they shot him; be more like de Valera.
Eamon de Valera only escaped the firing squad even though he was a Rising ringleader because of his American links.
Later, after the signing of the Anglo-Irish Treaty, de Valera split the republican movement by rejecting the Treaty, and teaming up with the anti-Treaty IRA, thereby sparking the bloody Irish Civil War.
Was this the same de Valera who during the Second World War when Southern Ireland was supposedly ‘neutral’ supported the turning on of lights to guide Nazi bombers to blitz Belfast, and later sent message of condolence to the German Embassy on the death of Hitler, the tyrant who implemented the Holocaust? Not exactly a shining example for Biden to follow!
And as for Biden’s grandfather telling the youthful Biden he was too much like ‘the military guy’ who was shot, was this a reference either to communist James Connolly, the founder of the extreme Left Irish Socialist Republican Party, and Rising leader who was executed by British firing squad in 1916, or Michael Collins, the pro-Treaty Free State military commander, who was assassinated during the Irish Civil War on the orders of de Valera?
Biden needs to clarify for Unionism who his heroes are in terms of Irish history as any confusion or misunderstanding over Connolly, Collins and de Valera will only heighten Unionist suspicions that Biden - in terms of a future second-term American administration in Washington - will model himself politically as yet another ‘Sinn Fein President’.
Biden faces a huge uphill task to retain the Oval Office and virtually every part of this trip was a tick box exercise to placate a key section of the American voter base as unlike Kennedy, Clinton and Obama, Biden cannot fully guarantee the three key voter bases of Irish America, Ulster Scots America and Catholic America will automatically swing behind him in vast numbers.
Biden is facing a ‘squeaky bum’ election as in 2020, not a Ronnie Reagan-style landslide. In the battle to retain the White House, Biden has turned Ireland into an unofficial 51st American state.
Biden may not have the financial political war chest to win in 2024, but as the current President, he potentially possesses the billions to buy the peace process.
When it comes to a cost of living crisis, money talks. So the dilemmas become; how soon can Biden get all his billions in terms of investment and jobs into Northern Ireland, and how long can Unionism hold out to get a favourable resolution to the Protocol? Which will come first?
The bitter reality for Unionism is, time is not on its side; Biden holds the ace cards in the meantime.
Could Unionism, therefore, hold out like a modern day Siege of Londonderry in the hope that a Trump-style American Republican takes back the Oval Office? Or, has Stormont become the New Alamo - and we all know how that one ended!
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Wrong again John, de Valera was not "one of the key men who organised the 1916 Easter Rising" he lacked the military knowledge. The rising was organised by others, Plunket, the "communist," like me, James Connolly but not de Valera. Neither was he saved execution because of "American links", there was no evidence he had any, no paper trail. The US had no record of him. Plus, if being a US citizen would save anybody it would have been Tom Clarke who was an American citizen. As for the "turning on of lights to guide" German bombers to bomb Belfast, that is a load of revisionist crap which even a subjective, biased student as yourself should be ashamed of. On the contrary, de Valera sent fire tenders from Dublin to help out the Belfast Fire Brigade during the Blitz. For his troubles the Luftwaffe bombed Dublin, claiming it was an "error".
ReplyDeleteDuring WW2 de Valera steered a "benevolent" neutrality course. Benevolent towards the allies giving weather reports from the Mayo weather station in the Atlantic. The same weather station gathered inteligence on Nazi activities in the Atlantic giving this information via Bletchley Park to the allies.
Caoimhin O'Muraile