The big problem is that so many former Ulster Unionists have joined the DUP, or have influence within the DUP, that the party has really become a mirror image of the UUP in 1986 when the latter was dominated by leading integrationists like leader James Molyneaux and South Down MP Enoch Powell.
They both ideologically had little time for devolution, believing instead that power should rest with the Westminster Government and that the Northern Ireland Office - which implemented Direct Rule at that time - should her staffed by MPs elected in Northern Ireland instead of parachuting MPs in from British mainland constituencies.
Even the late Ulster-born NIO Education Minister in the 1980s - Dr Brian Mawhinney - was the Tory MP for Peterborough before his elevation to the House of Lords.
With the planned local government elections pushed back to later in May to take account of King Charles’ coronation, the big question remains - when will the Northern Ireland Secretary of State call this much-mooted Assembly election, which has become known as the ‘election which no one wants’?
The problem still remains that the old Paisleyite fundamentalist wing of the DUP is now firmly back in control of the party with many key influencers in the party based at Westminster.
So it’s not a case of the UK/EU deal satisfying the DUP as a whole in terms of getting the party to walk back into an Executive at Stormont, but whether the fundamentalists are happy with the deal itself?
Then again, the DUP strategists must be pondering how many of the 66,000 first preference votes the TUV notched up in the May 2022 Stormont poll can be persuaded to vote DUP in any snap Assembly poll?
After all, the DUP is only two seats behind Sinn Fein in the battle for the First Minister’s post. At the same time, the Shinners must be pondering how many of the remaining SDLP seats or Alliance seats held by Catholics could they snatch come the Stormont poll.
While the Duppers will be looking to gain at least another three seats to overtake the Shinners, what happens if the snap Stormont poll yields the same result as May - Shinners in first place in terms of MLAs, with the Duppers as runners-up? Will the DUP agree to serve as deputy First Minister under a Sinn Fein First Minister even though they are supposed to be joint posts?
The loose cannon in this political debate is the TUV. It’s not transfer friendly as last May’s poll concluded - 66,000 first preference votes and only a single MLA; party boss Jim Allister in North Antrim.
With the May 2023 council showdown definitely on the cards, could the TUV now transfer those 66,000 Assembly votes into first preference votes for local government candidates across the 11 councils in Northern Ireland?
The Ulster Unionists are playing smart for any Stormont poll and adopting a ‘what we have, we hold’ attitude to the number of candidates, so the chances of the DUP nicking seats from the UUP are greatly reduced.
As for Alliance, it will certainly ‘up’ the number of council candidates it will be running, especially west of the River Bann in traditionally nationalist areas. It will also be hoping the so-called ‘Alliance Bounce’ will keep bouncing in council areas with large Unionist voter bases.
As for the Shinners, their priority must be to prepare for any snap Dail General Election should the ruling Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition ever lose a vote of confidence in the coming months.
Although the next Dail General Election is not scheduled until 2025, the big mistake which the Shinners made in the last 2020 Leinster House showdown was in not running enough candidates - a serious error of judgement the Provisional IRA’s mouthpiece will not make again.
If opinion polls are taken as gospel, Shinner boss Mary Lou McDonald is on course to become either Taoiseach or Tanaiste following the next election south of the border.
The key question will be - can all the other parties and independents get enough TDs returned to form an anti-Sinn Fein rainbow coalition to keep Mary Lou out of one or other of the top posts? Or will one of the existing Dail parties break ranks and form a coalition government with Sinn Fein?
As for British mainland politics, expect PM Rishi Sunak to face yet more Tory backbench rebellions as both the cost of living crisis and recession bite deep into the UK economy.
Maybe US President ‘Sleepy Joe’ Biden will waken up in time to come to Ireland and kick off the celebrations, commemorations, or commiserations marking the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, which supposedly heralded the formal start of the peace process in Ireland. Maybe the time has come to negotiate a new agreement as the GFA has finally run its course.
After all, all it takes is the DUP’s fundamentalist bloc to dig in its heels over Stormont, triggering a 1972-style proroguing of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Direct Rule comes back to the Province.
That could see a lot of redundant MLAs and party workers, including office staff, scrambling to get nominations as council candidates. Would the DUP have enough clout left at Westminster to persuade the Tory Government to allow Northern Ireland MPs to staff the new look NIO?
That would put the Shinners in a real dilemma over their traditional abstentionist policy of not taking their Commons seats. Would we see a special 1986-style conference to rustle up some excuse to enter the Commons as Sinn Fein concocted in 1986 to take seats in the Dail?
On a brighter note, I hope my beloved Gunners get back into the Champions League at the expense of Tottenham. Then again, after his Qatar World Cup penalty kicking skills, maybe England captain Harry Kane will sign for Slaughtneil GAC?
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Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter Listen to commentator Dr John Coulter’s programme, Call In Coulter, every Saturday morning around 10.15 am on Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. Listen online. |
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